Romney Chooses Paul Ryan for VP

Ryan

Mitt Romney announced today that he had chosen his vice presidential running mate: Paul Ryan, the U.S. House member from Wisconsin and current chairman of the House Budget Committee. The selection of Ryan came as a surprise to most observers. While Ryan had some supporters, most viewed Tim Pawlenty or Rob Portman as more likely choices. Recall that just yesterday, Intrade gave Ryan a less than 15% chance of being picked, while Portman was at 34.9% and Pawlenty was at 20%. After Intrade confidently, wrongly predicted that Obamacare's individual mandate would be overruled by the Supreme Court, one must continue to be skeptical about Intrade's ability to predict "secret" decisions.

In previous examinations of the VP decision-making process, we noted two popular theories: The first was the "first do no harm" theory that a "safe" choice should be made because a VP can hurt but not really help a ticket. The second theory is that a VP can help by broadening the appeal of the ticket.

The Ryan decision is perplexing in some ways, because he seems to be the worst of both worlds. On the one hand, he was widely regarded as a "risky" pick because of the big negative he carries: Ryan is associated with a very unpopular budget plan that involved privatizing Medicare. Indeed, "associated" may be an understatement, since it was known as the "Ryan Plan." Thus, Ryan fails the "do no harm" test. But on the other hand, he doesn't seem to have many qualities that would broaden the appeal of the ticket. Unlike Marco Rubio, who would have appealed to many independents (particularly Hispanics), Ryan would tend, if anything, to alienate independents.

It might also be noted that Ryan is young and looks young, and that his highest elected office is that of a U.S. House member--which does not require winning a state-wide election. However, since Ryan has held that office since 1999, he is less vulnerable to criticisms of being inexperienced, despite being about the same age as Rubio.

So why was Ryan chosen? There are a number of factors that likely weighed heavily in Romney's mind. First, the trial balloons on Romney and Portman earlier this summer fell flat. Second, polls have suggested that Barack Obama has held a slight lead over Romney throughout the race. Such polls are of registered voters rather than likely voters, but perhaps Romney's campaign is as led by the RealClearPolitics average as Intrade is. Also, some very recent polls show Obama with a bigger lead. Putting these two things together, Romney may have been persuaded that he needs a "game changing" VP, just as John McCain concluded four years ago.

Then there are the attributes that favor Ryan. Among Tea Partiers and hardcore conservatives, Ryan is considered a genuine conservative, not a "RINO." No doubt Romney chose Ryan in part to balance the ticket and energize his base. Unlike many on the far right, Ryan is not considered a "kook," but an intelligent and articulate, hard-working legislator. Ryan's youth and energy would also be seen as qualities that help balance the ticket. Though it's unlikely to make much difference, Ryan provides geographic balance as well: He's from Wisconsin, a Midwestern swing state. Finally, Ryan would probably have little difficulty beating Joe Biden in a debate.

The irony of the Ryan selection is that during the Republican primary, Romney went out of his way to avoid appearing too aggressively conservative on fiscal issues. Recall that for a long time, Romney avoided endorsing tax cuts for the rich; he only changed his mind when his campaign appeared vulnerable later on, when he needed to appeal to conservatives. The selection of Ryan is a full embrace of fiscal conservatism, including its most unpopular elements. Yet Romney may have felt that since he already spoke favorably of the Ryan Plan, he was stuck anyway.

Putting it all together, how will Ryan's selection impact the dynamic of the race? On balance, it will hurt Romney. By choosing Ryan, Romney has played directly into Obama's current strategy of class warfare. The Obama campaign can go on the offensive, claiming that a Romney/Ryan victory would result in the end of Medicare. By contrast, Ryan doesn't carry any constituency of his own to counter his downside. Arguably he could help energize the base, but there is historical evidence to suggest that the base turns out anyway, and candidates win the presidency by winning independents. On the surface, it appears Ryan will hurt rather than help with independents.

It will be some time before we can fully determine how a Ryan VP candidacy will play, and how Americans respond to him. For the moment, it is Elephant Watcher's determination that Romney's odds of winning the presidency have declined modestly.

Marco Rubio's Effect on the Hispanic Vote?

Rubio

In Part III of our series on Mitt Romney's potential choices for vice president, we examined some of Marco Rubio's strengths and weaknesses. The most conspicuous advantage Rubio would bring to the ticket is his appeal to Hispanic voters. But whether and to what degree Rubio would bring in Hispanic voters is open to debate. The Democratic Party's coalition relies on securing a very high percentage of the Hispanic vote. Many Democratic political analysts place their hopes for a future Democratic majority on demographic changes (i.e. a rise in the Hispanic percentage of America's population). The rise of Hispanic Republicans like Rubio would undermine all of that--if they are, in fact, better equipped than white Republicans to attract Hispanic voters. How would Rubio's inclusion on the Republican ticket alter the equation?

It's not hard to understand why many believe Rubio would offer Romney a boost in the Hispanic vote. In the country's entire history, no major party ticket has ever included an Hispanic candidate as the presidential or vice presidential nominee. When Barack Obama defeated John McCain in 2008, McCain got only about 33% of the Hispanic vote; George W. Bush had won about 44% in 2004. Thus, there's plenty of room for improvement--a Romney/Rubio ticket would only need to get back to 44% in order to give Obama a major headache. And Romney himself is not particularly repulsive to Hispanic voters: Romney won the Hispanic vote overwhelmingly during the 2012 Republican primary.

However, there are many skeptics. Among Democratic analysts, the conventional wisdom is that Rubio would have a negligible effect on the Hispanic vote. Their argument is essentially as follows: While Rubio is Hispanic, he is Cuban-American rather than Mexican-American. Mexican-Americans comprise roughly two-thirds of America's Hispanic population, while Cuban-Americans account for about 4%. Rubio would influence the Cuban-American vote, but they already lean Republican. According to Democratic analysts, Mexican-Americans (and presumably other Hispanics) have a negative attitude toward Cuban-Americans and do not consider that group "one of them." They argue further that Hispanics are not monolithic and would not vote based on ethnicity anyway.

The skeptics' analysis, while a source of comfort to many Democrats, contains a number of major flaws. First, there is a basic misunderstanding of what Rubio would need to do in order to help Romney win the election. Rubio would not need to replicate Obama's 2008 feat of capturing more than 90% of his ethnic group's vote. As mentioned, Bush got 44% of the Hispanic vote, which is roughly the point at which Obama's coalition would begin to collapse. Rubio would simply need to peel off a small chunk of Obama's Hispanic vote share--including many who voted Republican in prior elections.

Next is the question of whether non-Cuban Hispanics would be influenced by Rubio's presence on the ticket. An analogy might be drawn to what occurred during the Democratic primary in 2008. Initially, polls showed black voters supporting Hillary Clinton over Obama by a wide margin. Analysts--especially those supporting Clinton--offered many reasons why black voters would prefer Clinton to Obama. They claimed that while Obama was black, he was not considered "black enough." Obama was biracial; he was raised by his white grandparents; he grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia rather than a big city; he had a privileged background; his father was an African immigrant rather than an African-American; he was not descended from slaves, etc. At that time, analysts also remarked upon the fact that the black vote is not monolithic, and that black voters would not vote based solely on ethnicity.

Polls continued to show Obama trailing Hillary Clinton; the Clinton family was always well-received by black voters. But after Obama won Iowa, it became clear that Obama had a real chance to become the first black president. At that point, everything changed. The black vote unified behind Obama, who frequently defeated Clinton among that ethnic group by margins of 10-to-1. The Clintons even found themselves repeatedly accused of racism when they criticized Obama. Evidently, there was no longer a perception that Obama was not "black enough" to attract black voters. Obama may not have been born to African-American parents, but he was the "most" black candidate who had ever made a serious run for the presidency.

Similarly, Rubio would be the "most Hispanic" candidate to appear on a presidential ticket. He would not need to cause a mass defection of Hispanic Democrats the way Obama caused nearly all of the black Clinton supporters to switch sides; Rubio would merely need to regain the Republicans and some Independents who voted for Obama.

While voters may not vote solely on ethnicity, it's difficult to argue that the first Hispanic VP wouldn't draw the attention of Hispanic voters and cause them to consider the Republican ticket on a more serious level. In addition, for those who avoid voting Republican for fear of anti-Hispanic bias in that party, the mere presence of an Hispanic on the ticket would have a real impact.

If Rubio were on the ticket, we might expect a parallel to Obama's experience in the Democratic primary to play out as follows: Rubio is announced as the VP nominee. Threatened, Democrats attack the choice as "cynical." Early polls show little movement toward Romney among Hispanics; Democrats declare that Rubio has failed to have an impact. Democrats then hone in, attacking Rubio's lack of experience. Over time, as the possibility of an Hispanic vice president becomes more real, and as Rubio makes his case, things begin to turn. Hispanic voters slowly shift toward the Republican ticket. Failing to notice this, the Democratic attack machine overreaches--they are unable to resist comparing Rubio to Sarah Palin. This backfires.

Rubio is viewed as intelligent and passionate about the American dream. By claiming Rubio is unintelligent, Hispanic voters feel the Democrats have treated Rubio unfairly. They don't agree with Rubio on everything, but the Palin comparisons are insulting and suspicious. Dangerously, signs of anti-Hispanic prejudice leak among some less-disciplined Democratic surrogates. As the VP debate approaches, expectations for Joe Biden are inexplicably pumped up by optimistic Democrats who temporarily forget his history of gaffes. Rubio crushes Biden in the debate. Biden responds with increasing condescension toward Rubio, and it doesn't have the desired effect. Only after election day do Democrats realize how large a share of the Hispanic vote the Romney/Rubio ticket has managed to get.