2012 Republican Primary in Review: March 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February.

As March began, the ten contests on Super Tuesday--March 6th--loomed large. It was commonly understood that the Republican presidential primary had become a regional battle. The main battleground was Ohio, a Midwestern state where Rick Santorum had been polling very well prior to the Michigan primary at the end of February. Mitt Romney's campaign put all available resources into Ohio and began to close the gap.

Nationally, public opinion began to turn, slowly, against Santorum. Santorum's strength during the previous month was surface-deep; it was based on voters' lack of familiarity with his weaknesses. Still, Ohio was in his backyard. With Romney pulling ahead in the final polls, Newt Gingrich supporters in Ohio made a last-second shift over to Santorum. But it was not quite enough: Romney won Ohio by one point.

The remaining Super Tuesday states were split, with Romney winning most of them, but with Santorum doing well in the South. Critically, Santorum and Gingrich had failed to get on the ballot in Virginia, adding another win to Romney's column. And Gingrich won in his home state of Georgia, cutting into delegates Santorum would have otherwise easily taken.

Romney's win in Ohio made it readily apparent that he was the man to beat. Santorum's losses in Ohio and Michigan blunted all of the momentum he had gained during February. Yet, the split-decision on Super Tuesday brought something important to light: After a certain point, presidential primaries are based on delegate math, not momentum. In March, Romney's campaign went into full delegate mode, gathering up delegates from every little contest they could. This included several contests in island territories like Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Romney was able to accumulate a disproportionate number of delegates from these contests.

On March 13th, the three leading candidates converged on the Deep South for the primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Because of Gingrich's strength in that portion of the South, the Anti-Romney vote was split. Early polls suggested Romney might even be able to exploit the split to win in one or both of the states. But as before, Gingrich voters strategically shifted, giving both states to Santorum. Now, finally, Gingrich's campaign was truly dead--though he refused to drop out.

Unfortunately for Santorum, it was too late. The delegate math increasingly favored Romney, who was able to win on his own turf by wide margins, while Santorum's wins usually involved prevailing by smaller margins against Romney or Romney/Gingrich. The possibility of Santorum actually winning a majority of the delegates was slim; instead, it seemed as though he was merely attempting to force a contested convention. That, along with an increasing public awareness of Santorum's faults, caused Santorum's support to erode.

On March 20th, the new dynamic was plain for all to see. Romney won the Illinois primary by a whopping 12 points. Gingrich voters had shifted to Santorum again--basically taking Gingrich out of the equation--but it didn't do much good. Santorum's last, best hope had been that Gingrich's collapse would allow the Anti-Romney vote to coalesce. The Anti-Romney vote did unite behind Santorum, but there weren't enough Anti-Romney voters left. Even in Wisconsin, another Midwestern state, early polls looked good for Romney.

As March came to a close, the Romney-favoring April calendar approached. Romney was in a dominating position. It did not appear likely that the other candidates could stop Romney from getting a majority of the delegates and winning the nomination.

Super Tuesday, Part 2: Romney Wins AK, OH

After a lengthy counting process, Mitt Romney finally emerged as the winner of a tight race in the Ohio Primary. Romney beat Rick Santorum 38% to 37%. (Romney also won a close race in the Alaska Caucus.) The Ohio polls had Romney with a slight edge going into election day, but as expected, Santorum got a few points from Newt Gingrich supporters who switched at the last moment. It was very close, but not enough to win. In winning the state, Romney avoided another round of the media narrative that he is a weak frontrunner, and he denied Santorum some much-needed momentum enhancement. The results of each of the Super Tuesday states may be found on the Primaries page.

Because the polls turned so quickly after Michigan, the media never quite picked up on how big the shift was that allowed Romney to win. Prior to Romney's win in Michigan, Santorum led in Ohio polls by a margin of 7-18 points. Unlike Michigan, which was a fairer fight due to Romney's ties to the state, Ohio was Santorum's to lose. That Santorum did lose in Ohio reflects the overall national shift toward Romney taking place; Romney benefits as Santorum is increasingly vetted. Santorum losing Ohio would be akin to Romney losing New York--there's no excuse for it. Santorum may complain that he was outspent by Romney, but the outspending will continue.

To win a majority of the delegates, Santorum needs to win the South and the Midwest. Indeed, he needs to win those states by larger margins now that Romney's margins of victory in the West and Northeast are increasing. Santorum has been unable to break into Romney's strongholds in the Northeast and the West. Now that Santorum is also losing some states in the South and some in the Midwest, it's difficult to see his path to victory.

If Romney is guaranteed to win the plurality of the delegates, there will be an increasing focus on whether Romney can get an outright majority. As time goes on, Santorum will be pressured to drop out of the race for the good of the party. Meanwhile, Santorum will be pressuring Gingrich to drop out so he can consolidate the Anti-Romney vote.

Super Tuesday, Part 1: Gingrich Wins GA; Romney Wins ID, MA, VT, VA; Santorum Wins ND, OK, TN

The winners of most of the Super Tuesday states have been determined as of this writing. Most states voted as expected: Newt Gingrich won his home state of Georgia by a large margin (48% of the vote); Mitt Romney won Massachusetts and Idaho by gigantic margins (with +70% of the vote each); Romney also won Vermont and Virginia (with 40% and 59%); Rick Santorum won Oklahoma and Tennessee with a bit more than a third of the vote. Santorum won by around 10 points in Tennessee, which was not nearly as narrow as the polls suggested. Moreover, Santorum won the "wildcard" state of North Dakota with about 40% of the vote. Alaska's polls have not yet closed, and Ohio is too close to call--Santorum and Romney are almost tied.

There were no "surprise" victories reported. One significant result was that outside of Georgia, Santorum beat Gingrich convincingly in the Southern states. Even worse for Gingrich is the fact that Romney's share of the vote butted into the margin, pushing Gingrich down to third. Going forward, Southerners will be deciding whether to support Gingrich or Santorum as the chief Anti-Romney, so this matters. However, the next three Southern states to vote in March will be the remainder of the Deep South (Alabama, Mississippi, and Louisiana). The other two Deep South states (GA and South Carolina) went heavily for Gingrich.

Naturally, all eyes are on Ohio. Regardless of who wins the popular vote, the delegates will be split between Romney and Santorum, because it's not a winner-take-all state. "Winning" the state affects the perception of the media and the voters, however.

What does the virtual tie in Ohio say about the race? Unlike Michigan, Ohio was much more favorable territory for Santorum than Romney. Santorum's loss or near loss in the state is a sign of weakness on his home turf. While Santorum could point to Romney's small 3-point win in Romney's "home state" of Michigan, Romney also won another "home state," Massachusetts, by 60 points. Other favorable states in Romney's regions have given him impressive wins. By contrast, Santorum is under terrible pressure in his own region, the Midwest.

If Santorum cannot compete in the West or Northeast, he must sweep the South and Midwest in order to win the nomination. With results like Ohio's, it becomes increasingly unlikely that he can accumulate enough delegates to get a majority. Unless something changes the race in dramatic fashion, the only remaining question is whether Santorum and Gingrich can prevent Romney from getting a majority, as he'll certainly get a plurality.

Tomorrow: Super Tuesday

Tomorrow is Super Tuesday, the first of the big multiple-state contest days. Ten states will vote: Alaska, Georgia, Idaho, Massachusetts, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Vermont, and Virginia. These states can be broken down into a few categories. There are the states Mitt Romney is very likely to win (Idaho, Massachusetts, and Vermont, as well as Virginia--because only he and Ron Paul are on the ballot); the state Newt Gingrich is very likely to win (Georgia); the states Rick Santorum should be favored to win (Oklahoma and Tennessee); the wildcards (Alaska and North Dakota); and the big prize battleground state (Ohio). The candidates' strategies remain as they were in February. Romney needs the West, Northeast, and to break into the Midwest. Santorum needs to sweep the South and the Midwest. Gingrich and Paul have no path to victory. What do the polls say about how well the candidates will execute these strategies on Super Tuesday?

First, Romney looks good on his "lock" states, though there's been no polling of Idaho and little of the others on his list:

Massachusetts Primary
02/15 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 64, Santorum 16, Paul 7, Gingrich 6

Vermont Primary
02/22 Castleton -- Romney 34, Santorum 27, Paul 14, Gingrich 10

Virginia Primary
03/02 NBC/Marist -- Romney 69, Paul 26
02/28 Roanoke -- Romney 56, Paul 21

Gingrich is doing well in his home state of Georgia. He was in some danger of being usurped by Santorum, but Santorum's decline has been to Gingrich's advantage:

Georgia Primary
03/04 Insider Adv -- Gingrich 47, Romney 21, Santorum 18, Paul 6
03/04 Rasmussen -- Gingrich 37, Romney 27, Santorum 18, Paul 10
03/04 Rosetta -- Gingrich 44, Romney 23, Santorum 17, Paul 7
03/04 PPP (D) -- Gingrich 47, Romney 24, Santorum 19, Paul 8

Somewhat fittingly, there has been no polling of the wildcard states (AK and ND). There's no telling how they'll vote, but the overall momentum has been toward Romney. Santorum can't count on those states, so his attention must remain focused on the states where he needs to win:

Oklahoma Primary
03/02 ARG -- Santorum 37, Romney 26, Gingrich 22, Paul 9
03/01 YouGov -- Santorum 38, Romney 30, Gingrich 22, Paul 9
02/21 Rasmussen -- Santorum 43, Gingrich 22, Romney 18, Paul 7

Tennessee Primary
03/04 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 30, Gingrich 29, Santorum 29, Paul 12
03/04 PPP (D) -- Santorum 34, Romney 29, Gingrich 27, Paul 8
03/03 Rasmussen -- Santorum 34, Romney 30, Gingrich 18, Paul 8
03/03 ARG -- Santorum 35, Romney 31, Gingrich 20, Paul 9

Tennessee is a weak link for Santorum. He needs to win there to establish his supremacy over Gingrich in the South. But Gingrich has been rising of late and could potentially win. Normally Santorum would be able to count on the late defection of Gingrich voters to put him past Romney, but Gingrich is nearly taking the lead--not trailing far behind. If Romney or Gingrich won Tennessee, it would be a complete disaster for Santorum. Arguably, it would be even worse if Gingrich won, because Santorum would potentially lose his position of chief Anti-Romney. Romney would love to see Gingrich have another resurgence, because unlike Santorum, Gingrich can't challenge him in the Midwest.

That's been the fundamental problem facing Santorum: He has a challenger in both of the regions he needs to sweep (Romney in the Midwest and Gingrich in the South). The states chosen for Super Tuesday only compound this problem. Of the four Southern states, one is uniquely favorable for Gingrich (Georgia), and another is off the table because only Romney and Paul are on the ballot (Virginia). On top of that, there's only one Midwestern state in play, so Romney can focus his money/infrastructure advantage there. Speaking of Ohio:

Ohio Primary
03/04 Rasmussen -- Santorum 32, Romney 31, Paul 13, Gingrich 13
03/04 Merriman -- Romney 38, Santorum 33, Gingrich 18, Paul 8
03/04 PPP (D) -- Romney 37, Santorum 36, Gingrich 15, Paul 11
03/04 ARG -- Romney 35, Santorum 28, Gingrich 18, Paul 13
03/04 Suffolk -- Santorum 37, Romney 33, Gingrich 16, Paul 8
03/04 Quinnipiac -- Romney 34, Santorum 31, Gingrich 15, Paul 12
03/03 Ipsos -- Santorum 32, Romney 32, Gingrich 17, Paul 6
03/02 NBC/Marist -- Santorum 34, Romney 32, Gingrich 15, Paul 13

The recent shift toward Romney is seen in the Ohio polls. At Santorum's height, Romney was trailing by as much as 18 points in some polls. Now they are about tied, with Romney a slight favorite. Losing Ohio would be a crushing blow for Santorum. Unlike Michigan, Santorum could not spin the result, because there's no reason why Ohio should favor Romney instead of him. If Santorum loses this important Midwestern state, it means his regional strategy has unraveled. There's only one silver lining in these polls: There are still plenty of Gingrich votes that could defect to Santorum at the last minute.

Ohio: Midwestern Rematch

In our preview of the upcoming Michigan Primary, we described Michigan as a somewhat neutral battleground for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. After Michigan votes on February 28th, the next big contest will be held on March 6th. But March 6th is "Super Tuesday," the day when a total of ten different states will vote (AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA). The media will have difficulty covering and analyzing Super Tuesday because so many different states vote, and because the states are so different. Some of the states will be heavily biased toward a candidate (e.g. Newt Gingrich and Romney's home states, Georgia and Massachusetts). Others will have a significant bias, and others will have a slight bias. Which states are important to watch?

Most of the attention will focus on the state of Ohio. It's a populous state, and it's an important swing state in general elections. More significantly, Ohio is a Midwestern state, located in the battleground region for the 2012 Republican primary. The fight between Romney and Santorum will be decided in large part by what happens in the Midwest. The South is infertile territory for Romney, while the Northeast and West are less receptive to Santorum. The Midwest has a natural pro-Santorum bias, but isn't anti-Romney like the South, so both candidates will be contesting states in the Midwest.

Santorum's objective is to crush Gingrich in the South and crush Romney in the Midwest, hoping that big enough margins of victory in those two regions will be enough to put him over the top. Romney's objective is to sweep the Northeast and West while taking enough victories and delegates in the Midwest to accumulate a delegate majority. (Gingrich and Ron Paul currently have no path to victory.)

Arguably, Romney has the easier route: Santorum will be contested in the South by Gingrich and in the Midwest by Romney. Romney won't have as much competition in the Northeast or West. Those regions are also overrepresented in the "winner-take-all" portion of the primary season. In the Midwest, Santorum needs big wins, while Romney can afford some losses there. For Santorum, that's the bad news about having to fight on one's own turf. The good news is that a lot of the news coverage will be focused there, in a region where Santorum is on favorable ground. Meanwhile, Santorum really needs to hope that Gingrich drops out or evaporates in the South, because he can't afford to fight in two regions simultaneously.

Regardless of who wins Michigan, Ohio will be viewed as a rematch. Ohio should begin with a substantial bias in Santorum's favor--his home state of Pennsylvania is next door. Michigan was more of a neutral battleground because Romney could counter the regional bias with his own home state roots there. Polling currently suggests good news for Romney in Michigan, but even if he wins, he'll be starting out behind in Ohio.

While Ohio may have a natural affinity for Santorum, time is against him. The height of the Santorum surge--the "honeymoon" period during which voters assumed Santorum had no weaknesses--is past. Santorum has already lost quite a bit of ground since mid-February, but voters are still only just beginning to learn about Santorum's vulnerabilities. The Republican debate on February 22nd was a preview of the attacks against Santorum's conservative record. As we explained in our discussion of electability and conservatism, attacks against Santorum's electability will be more potent than those against his conservatism. Electability attacks have not yet begun.

Romney's campaign has chosen not to focus on electability, instead undermining Santorum's conservative credentials. If Santorum wins Michigan, or if it's too close for comfort, that is likely to change. Romney would become desperate, and things will get uglier. However, the media environment will become more toxic for Santorum over time, regardless of how well he does in Michigan. The same phenomenon occurred after Gingrich won South Carolina; liberal media and the Republican establishment united to make devastating attacks against Gingrich from which he never recovered. Santorum can expect to face a similar challenge leading up to Ohio and beyond.

Santorum Rises on Intrade; Romney Still Dominates

When we last examined the Intrade market for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney was poised to win Florida. He was near 90% on Intrade, and his nearest rival was in the low single-digits. Since then, Romney won Florida and Nevada by huge margins--but was derailed by Rick Santorum's three-state win on February 7th.

Romney still dominates the Intrade market, standing at 73.5%, nearly triple the rest of his competitors combined. But Santorum has risen to 16%. Prior to his win last Tuesday, Santorum was trading at less than 2%. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are trading at 3% and 2.3%, respectively. Once it became clear Gingrich was going to lose Florida, he cratered. He continues to be mired in the low single-digits. The question is, how high will Santorum go?

The Intrade markets on individual states reveal a fog of confusion about the future of the race. Intrade's investors are unsure of whether Santorum will be able to pull out more wins in the Midwest--wins he'll absolutely need if Romney is to be stopped.

Of the three contests taking place prior to Super Tuesday (Arizona, Michigan, and Washington), Intrade is confident Romney will win Arizona (80%) and Washington (65%). But in the all-important state of Michigan, the market is split: Santorum is at 55% and Romney is at 45%. This market has been going back and forth between the two competitors. The same is true of Super Tuesday's biggest state, Ohio, where Romney is trading at 50% and Santorum at 55% (these are sell orders, which is why they sometimes add to over 100%).

Lack of regular polling of Michigan and Ohio explains why Intrade is so cautious about taking a stand on those important states. Michigan is one of Romney's "home states," and Ohio is an expensive place to campaign, but Intrade gives Romney no edge. Tuesday's contests in Minnesota and Missouri showed Santorum strong and Romney weak in the Midwest. Intrade has adopted a wait-and-see approach.