Decisive Moments of the Campaign, Part II

Continued from Part I.

Newt Gingrich Destroyed by Attack Ads (December 10th - December 20th). After Herman Cain and Rick Perry self-destructed in early November, the Anti-Romney vote coalesced behind Gingrich. Gingrich then enjoyed a commanding lead over everyone else in the national and early state polls; it was the longest sustained lead held by an Anti-Romney during the primary season. Romney could have gone on the attack, but he held his fire for what seemed like an interminable period of time. Suddenly, in early-to-mid December, the Romney campaign unloaded a deluge of attack ads against Gingrich, particularly in Iowa. But would the attacks prove effective in changing Iowans' minds about Gingrich? They did. Gingrich's numbers went into a death spiral as voters learned about Gingrich's lack of conservatism and lack of electability. Gingrich placed fourth in Iowa, preventing him from winning the Iowa-South Carolina combination of which every anti-establishment candidate dreams.

Rick Santorum Runs out of Time (December 27th - January 3rd). Romney's attacks against Gingrich were timed to knock out Gingrich close enough to the Iowa Caucus so that another competitor wouldn't have enough time to rise up in his place. Before Christmas, Santorum was barely reaching double-digits, and usually didn't make the top four. After Christmas, Santorum's numbers started to climb, as Iowans considered him a more electable alternative to Perry and Gingrich. On the day of the Iowa Caucus, Santorum out-performed even his rising poll numbers. Unfortunately, he had just barely run out of time. It was reported that Romney beat Santorum by a handful of votes; they tied at 25% each. A later count showed Santorum had actually won by a handful of votes. If the contest had been held a day or two later, Santorum would have won and gotten a bounce, perhaps claiming the mantle of chief Anti-Romney. Instead, Romney was reported the winner, and Santorum wouldn't rise again until after Gingrich had been decisively defeated in Florida. By that time, Santorum had to make up a lot of ground.

Mitt Romney Beats Newt Gingrich at the Florida Debate (January 26th). After Gingrich rallied the base in debates and won the South Carolina Primary, the tide appeared to have shifted radically against Romney. A corrected tally in Iowa showed that Romney had narrowly lost there, meaning he had only won one of the first three contests. Polls in Florida showed Gingrich in the lead. Not only was Romney not going to wrap up the nomination quickly--he might even lose. But on January 26th, Romney scored a huge win against Gingrich at the final pre-Florida debate. Gingrich had claimed to be the best candidate to debate Barack Obama, but Romney obliterated Gingrich. The debate demonstrated that Gingrich actually wasn't a very good debater, and that Romney was much stronger than most voters realized. Romney went on to trounce Gingrich in the Florida Primary by 14 points, sealing his frontrunner status and taking Gingrich out of the race.

Mitt Romney Wins Michigan and Ohio (February 28th - March 6th). During the month of February 2012, the Anti-Romney vote rapidly shifted from Gingrich to Santorum. Voters are disinclined to change horses midstream, but they were desperate. Gingrich was viewed as a spent force. Santorum was the only candidate remaining who had not been vetted; voters gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he was a decent, electable candidate. Romney's weakness in the Midwest shone through as Santorum topped the polls in Michigan and Ohio. The Romney campaign responded by attacking Santorum's conservative credentials. Unlike the assault against Gingrich, they did not get personal and did not attack Santorum's electability. This was a mistake, and Santorum's numbers eroded only slowly, as the news media gradually did more stories about Santorum's extreme social views. It was enough--barely. Romney beat Santorum by three points in Michigan, and beat him again in Ohio by just one point. Having lost two important contests in the Midwest, Santorum could no longer hope to put together a delegate majority. After Ohio, Romney was all but guaranteed to win the nomination.

Newt Gingrich Calls It Quits

Gingrich

Newt Gingrich announced today that he, like Rick Santorum, has suspended his campaign and is conceding the race to Mitt Romney. The Campaign Status page has been updated to reflect Gingrich's departure; only Romney and Ron Paul remain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Gingrich's concession will have little impact on the race, since his campaign was already dead in the water. However, it does help ensure that Romney will win the Southern primary contests in May by a wide margin. If Gingrich or Santorum had remained in the race and scored a large protest vote, it would have embarrassed Romney. Now, the only potential recipient of protest votes will be Paul, who appeals to few voters.

Gingrich had a lot of ups and downs in the race. He stumbled out of the gate with a poor performance on "Meet the Press" in May 2011. He was written off by most observers, but he steadily gained attention with his strong debate performances. Yet Gingrich did not "debate" his opponents in the traditional sense; he did not attack or get into arguments with his competitors. Instead, he presented "red meat" to the base in an interesting and articulate fashion. Gingrich, like so many others in the race, waited his turn as candidates crashed and burned. When Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain all cratered, Gingrich's numbers rose. By the end of November 2011, he was in the lead.

For a time, Gingrich had truly impressive poll numbers. In December, he was leading by a substantial margin in national primary polls as well as the state polls in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. Romney's campaign held firm, refusing to unleash its attack ads until mid-December, when they believed Iowa voters were really making up their minds. The attacks had an extraordinary impact, proving Gingrich had feet of clay. Gingrich crashed just in time for Santorum's numbers to go up, leading to a virtual tie in Iowa between Romney and Santorum.

The Gingrich rollercoaster wasn't finished, however. After Gingrich did badly in both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, he suddenly rose again to win the South Carolina Primary by 12 points. He had done well in the debates again (particularly by attacking the liberal moderators), and he benefited from his regional connection. Romney inadvertently helped Gingrich by making some unforced errors, like not releasing his tax returns and not launching attack ads against Gingrich as he had in Iowa.

But once Romney's campaign returned to form, Gingrich was crushed in Florida. Republican voters clearly had reservations about Romney, but they were more afraid of selecting a candidate with Gingrich's doubtful electability. Nor could Gingrich's debate performances save him once Romney started taking an aggressive posture in the debates: Gingrich was good at expounding on various topics, but he wasn't very good at debating an opponent head-to-head. After Florida, the anti-Romney vote switched horses to Santorum and never looked back.

What will Gingrich's legacy be? He proved the importance of debates in the primary process. He also demonstrated Republican voters' preference for electability over red meat. Gingrich saw himself as a man locked in mortal combat with Romney, but ultimately Gingrich served to help Romney. Gingrich was the second-to-last Anti-Romney candidate. Santorum, the final Anti-Romney, was a stronger one, since he had fewer electability issues (though he did have some). Gingrich essentially took up space that Santorum needed. Gingrich's rise and fall in Iowa delayed Santorum's own rise, preventing Santorum from getting his needed clear-cut victory there. And Gingrich's victory in South Carolina prevented Santorum from gaining any steam until February. Gingrich also took some delegates that otherwise would have gone to Santorum. If Santorum had gotten those delegates, the race would have appeared closer, and Santorum probably would have performed better in late February, when Romney started beating him.

2012 Republican Primary in Review: April 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May 2011, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January 2012, February, March.

The 2012 Republican presidential primary came to a close in April. The month opened with contests in Wisconsin, D.C., and Maryland. While Mitt Romney was heavily favored to win D.C. and Maryland, Wisconsin was a pro-Santorum state by nature. Earlier in the primary season, Rick Santorum would likely have won Wisconsin with little problem. But by the time April rolled around, Santorum had been weakened by successive defeats and a thorough vetting by the media. Moreover, widely-publicized delegate counts showed Santorum with no chance of getting a majority of the delegates--he could only hope to force a contested convention. Since Republican voters were less than enthused about the prospect of a contested convention, and since they increasingly understood Romney was the inevitable nominee, Santorum's support dwindled.

On April 3rd, the three contests were held, and Romney won them all. Santorum's early lead in Wisconsin was obliterated; Romney won Wisconsin by 7 points. Wisconsin marked a turning point, as no one could any longer deny that Romney was going to win the nomination. Romney was still far from having accumulated a majority of the delegates, but it was only a matter of time.

Looking ahead, April 24th looked to be a good day for Romney: A number of pro-Romney states, plus Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania, were set to hold their primaries. Santorum was faced with a decision. On the one hand, he could stay in the race, attempt to win Pennsylvania, and then ride the pro-Santorum calendar in May. On the other hand, he could save himself the trouble, concede the race, and avoid the possibility of an embarrassing defeat in his home state.

As with Wisconsin, Ohio, and Michigan, the early polls showed Santorum with a shrinking lead. Santorum realized that although he still had some chance of winning Pennsylvania, it wasn't worth the risk. Were he to stay in the race, he would be continually pressured to drop out and make room for the Party's obvious nominee. If he stayed in the race and lost Pennsylvania, it would be a humiliation. On April 10th, Santorum suspended his campaign, conceding the race to Romney.

Santorum's decision effectively marked the end of the primary season. Newt Gingrich attempted to capitalize on Santorum's departure by claiming he was the "last conservative standing." But Gingrich's campaign was long dead, having been killed by Santorum's Southern wins in March. The last gasp of Gingrich's campaign took place in Delaware on April 24th. As with the other states voting that day, Delaware gave Romney the win by a huge margin. Gingrich reportedly made plans to drop out of the race, though he did not make any public statements to that effect.

By the end of the month, Romney was still short of the magic number for a delegate majority, but virtually all opposition to him ceased. Romney was spared the difficulty of dealing with an anti-Romney calendar in May. Romney's campaign and the news media shifted their focus toward the general election.

Romney Sweeps the Northeast

For all intents and purposes, the Republican 2012 presidential primary ended earlier this month, when Rick Santorum announced he was dropping out of the race. Even so, there's still a technical requirement that Mitt Romney must win a majority of the delegates in order to win the nomination. From Romney's perspective, it makes sense to continue "competing" in these contests--while spending less money and devoting no resources to attack ads--because it looks good for a candidate to win. Romney will continue running victory laps as long as there are states yet to vote. Do the results in these states tell us anything? Not really. The voters are aware that the contest is over, and they have little incentive to participate, particularly as time goes on. People who really want to cast a vote for the winner will show up, as will the people who really want to cast a protest vote. Prior to today's contests, Newt Gingrich maintained that he was still running; Ron Paul will always be willing to fight on. But they couldn't make much of a dent: Romney won each contest by 30 or more points, including Pennsylvania.

Connecticut Primary (90% reporting)
Romney -- 67%
Paul -- 13%
Gingrich -- 10%
Santorum -- 7%

Delaware Primary (100% reporting)
Romney -- 56%
Gingrich -- 27%
Paul -- 11%
Santorum -- 6%

New York Primary (35% reporting)
Romney -- 58%
Paul -- 17%
Gingrich -- 14%
Santorum -- 10%

Pennsylvania Primary (71% reporting)
Romney -- 56%
Santorum -- 20%
Paul -- 13%
Gingrich -- 11%

Rhode Island Primary (88% reporting)
Romney -- 63%
Paul -- 24%
Gingrich -- 6%
Santorum -- 6%

In a little-noticed move, Gingrich placed all of his hopes on Delaware, where he spent whatever resources he had left. It made a difference, but only compared to the other states, where Gingrich did even worse. If Gingrich held onto any hope that Santorum's departure would consolidate the conservative vote around him again, that hope must be abandoned. As it turned out, the Wisconsin Primary on April 3rd was indeed the last competitive primary. Going forward, the only interesting data will be the numbers from Southern states voting in May; they may tell us something about the extent to which the Anti-Romney vote is coming around to their party's nominee.

Rick Santorum Concedes the Race

Santorum

The Republican presidential primary effectively ended today. Rick Santorum gave a speech to announce that he is suspending his campaign; he conceded the race to Mitt Romney in a phone call. As Elephant Watcher predicted, Santorum's loss in Wisconsin changed the race in a fundamental way, such that no one could any longer deny that Romney was going to win the nomination. Although there were many states left in the primary calendar that favor Santorum, it's likely that Santorum's campaign was able to conclude that Santorum would lose in Pennsylvania. A few days ago, a poll was released showing Romney with a lead in Pennsylvania; Santorum's campaign probably had access to some private polling data as well. Though Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul have not officially dropped out of the race, their efforts to amass delegates were even less successful than Santorum's--and they are no longer considered genuine candidates. At this point, Gingrich would struggle even to win Southern states with a protest vote in May.

Barring a tragic accident, Romney will be the Republican nominee for president this year. A little over six months ago, and about three months before voting began in Iowa, Elephant Watcher was able to project that Mitt Romney will win the Republican nomination. Although Romney could never hope to consolidate both wings of the Republican Party, he won because he was the only remaining candidate who was considered highly electable (aside from Jon Huntsman, who ran to the left of Romney). The rest of the candidates had serious issues, though primary voters tended not to be aware of those issues until after each candidate was brought under media scrutiny. In December, Elephant Watcher explained this was the fundamental driver of the ups and downs in the polls, which in fact continued until Santorum's collapse in March.

Throughout 2011, the conventional wisdom among the news media and political pundits was that Romney was limited by a ceiling of 25% of the Republican primary electorate. Elephant Watcher debunked the 25% ceiling myth in November. As Romney's competitors' electability issues surfaced, Romney surged and broke through the ceiling.

Many in the Tea Party could not believe--especially after their victories in 2010--that the Republican Party would end up nominating another "RINO" for president. They were certain that someone with unimpeachable conservative credentials would win the primary, rather than a moderate. But the fact is that by the beginning of October, the Party had no alternative. A number of highly-electable conservatives could have run (and in Tim Pawlenty's case, did run until his early exit), but they chose not to run. Romney's own weaknesses forced him to fight for the nomination, but the ultimate outcome could not be in serious doubt.

Could Santorum Lose Pennsylvania?

On April 24th, primaries will be held in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, and Rhode Island. Mitt Romney is expected to easily carry each of these states and add a huge haul of delegates to his already insurmountable lead. But there's another state voting on the 24th, one that isn't favorable to Romney at all: Pennsylvania. A Midwestern state, Pennsylvania is inherently friendly to Rick Santorum. It's also Santorum's home state, which gives him a huge bonus.

How big of advantage is the "home state" advantage in a primary? Big. A distinction should be drawn between a typical "home state", and Romney's home state of Michigan--which Romney only carried by a few points. Although Romney undoubtedly has ties to Michigan, a more apt comparison would be to Massachusetts, where Romney is better-known and recently served as governor. On Super Tuesday, Romney won Massachusetts with 72% of the vote, beating Santorum by a whopping 60 points. That same day, Newt Gingrich, whose campaign was already in tatters, won his own home state of Georgia with 47%, just over 20 points higher than Romney; other Southern states voting on Super Tuesday were carried by Santorum.

In summary, it ought to be understood that Santorum is starting out with an enormous advantage in Pennsylvania. Indeed, on February 20th (roughly at the height of Santorum's surge), a Franklin & Marshall poll had Santorum ahead by nearly 30 points there. A lot has changed since then, namely Santorum's key defeats in the Midwestern states of Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, and Wisconsin, along with the overall impression taking hold that Romney is inevitable. Still, that's quite a gap to close, and Santorum's campaign is taking an "all-in" approach in Pennsylvania, if only to avenge his infamous senatorial reelection loss. Here are the most recent polls in the state--most of which were taken prior to Santorum's loss in Wisconsin on April 3rd:

Pennsylvania Primary
04/04 PPP (D) -- Romney 42, Santorum 37, Paul 9, Gingrich 6
04/04 Rasmussen -- Santorum 42, Romney 38, Paul 7, Gingrich 6
04/01 Quinnipiac -- Santorum 41, Romney 35, Paul 10, Gingrich 7
03/27 Wenzel -- Santorum 45, Romney 25, Paul 10, Gingrich 8
03/25 Franklin -- Santorum 30, Romney 28, Paul 9, Gingrich 6

Even looking at the two polls taken after Wisconsin, there's quite a bit of variation: One has Romney up by 5, and the other has Santorum up by 4. But the bottom line is that both of those polls are terrible for Santorum. Romney has repeatedly overcome Santorum's early leads of more than 4 points. Santorum is in deep trouble--Pennsylvania is already competitive.

There are some silver linings for Santorum. As his home state, Pennsylvania may choose to reward Santorum's persistence in a last-minute fit of nostalgia. Santorum will also have three weeks to campaign there. And since Pennsylvanians are already familiar with Santorum, Romney's attack ads should have less effect.

But there's one big problem that could trump all that and give Romney the win: Over the next few weeks, the idea that Romney has already won the nomination will sink deeper into the minds of Republican voters. Without victories to sustain the Santorum campaign, potential Santorum voters will be poisoned by the toxic idea that a vote for Santorum simply helps Barack Obama.

Elephant Watcher believes that Santorum could be persuaded to quit the race early if he loses in Pennsylvania, or if the early Pennsylvania polls are bad enough to convince Santorum that he's going to lose there. Right now, the picture is bleak, but it's not yet certain Santorum will lose.

Intrade: Santorum Below 1 Percent

After losing the Illinois Primary a few weeks ago, Rick Santorum had dropped to a 2.5% chance to win the nomination, according to the Intrade market on the Republican nomination. After losing the Wisconsin Primary, Santorum's odds have hit rock bottom: He's currently trading at 0.7%. Mitt Romney is inching closer to the 100% mark, trading at 96.0%. For the first time, no other candidate is even in single-digits; Romney's competitors are all below the 1% mark.

Ron Paul, despite having failed to win a state so far, is in second place at 0.8%. Newt Gingrich is truly close to 0%, trading at 0.2% along with several candidates who didn't run (Sarah Palin, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan, etc.). Jeb Bush, who for whatever reason is a partial stand-in for the chance of a contested convention, is ahead of Gingrich, at 0.6%. But Intrade investors also feel the odds of a contested convention have fallen substantially: They give it just a 3% chance of occurring.

In fact, the Intrade markets on individual contests appear to be predicting an all-out sweep for Romney from this point forward. Before Wisconsin, they felt Santorum was relatively safe in his home state of Pennsylvania, giving him about a 2/3 chance of winning there. But now they rate the probability of a Romney upset in Pennsylvania at 84.7%. And Romney is almost certain to steal the big Southern prize, Texas: 92.4%, according to Intrade.

Intrade's high level of confidence of Romney winning Texas is particularly interesting, given Romney's weakness in the South so far. One possible explanation is that Intrade investors foresee Santorum dropping out of the race prior to the Texas Primary (May 29th). If they're right about Romney winning Pennsylvania, it's a real possibility.

Romney Wins Wisconsin in a Sweep

Mitt Romney swept the primaries in D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin on Tuesday. Romney's colossal win in the District of Columbia was expected, given Rick Santorum's failure to qualify for the ballot. Romney was also expected to win by double-digits in Maryland. For Romney, the real prize was Wisconsin. In mid-February, polls had Santorum leading in Wisconsin by about 15 points. It's a state that would naturally favor Santorum. But after a hard-fought campaign there, Wisconsin went for Romney by a comfortable margin. It is the most devastating loss for Santorum yet. The following are the vote counts as of this writing; news agencies have called all three contests for Romney:

Washington, D.C. Primary (58% reporting)
Romney -- 71%
Paul -- 12%
Gingrich -- 11%
Santorum -- [not on ballot]

Maryland Primary (57% reporting)
Romney -- 47%
Santorum -- 30%
Gingrich -- 11%
Paul -- 10%

Wisconsin Primary (42% reporting)
Romney -- 42%
Santorum -- 38%
Paul -- 12%
Gingrich -- 6%

Romney didn't win Wisconsin by a huge amount, but nor was it a razor-thin margin like the one with which he took Ohio, a similar state. Santorum is far behind on delegates, and if he was going to change the dynamic of the race, he needed to do much better in Wisconsin than he did in Ohio. Instead, Santorum did worse. Santorum's final hope--uniting the Anti-Romney vote after beating Newt Gingrich in the South--failed to produce the boost in support he needed.

Santorum's plan to sweep the South and Midwest did not succeed. Romney repeatedly beat Santorum in the Midwest (Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Wisconsin), all while continually increasing his margins in the Northeast and West.

Romney can persuasively argue that his nomination is inevitable. Santorum's campaign has conceded that they are unable to accumulate a majority of the delegates, and can only hope for a contested convention. This further reduces Santorum's appeal to Republican voters, most of whom care far more about defeating Barack Obama than nominating Santorum.

If Santorum had a realistic chance of winning the nomination, there was no reason for him not to win Wisconsin. It is a pro-Santorum state, he had plenty of time to campaign there, and Gingrich did not split the Anti-Romney vote. Santorum now has no logical reason to believe he can win the nomination. He can only hope for a miracle.

Wisconsin, D.C., and Maryland Tomorrow

Three primaries will take place on Tuesday: Wisconsin, Maryland, and Washington, D.C. Recent polling indicates Mitt Romney will win all three contests. This will be the last series of contests for another three weeks, after which a host of Northeastern states will vote. It's Rick Santorum's final opportunity to stop the delegate math from favoring Romney so overwhelmingly that observers conclude Santorum is wasting everyone's time. While the April calendar is stacked in Romney's favor, Wisconsin was supposed to provide Santorum with a counterweight: In its natural state, Wisconsin is pro-Santorum. Santorum has poured all available resources into Wisconsin, with apparently no reward for his efforts. A loss in Wisconsin would be devastating to Santorum because if he can't win there, he won't be able to win anywhere--except for Southern Anti-Romney states and his home state of Pennsylvania. A loss in Wisconsin now appears likely:

Wisconsin Primary
04/01 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 16, Gingrich 15
04/01 PPP (D) -- Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8
03/29 Rasmussen -- Romney 44, Santorum 34, Paul 7, Gingrich 7
03/28 St.Norbert -- Romney 37, Santorum 32, Paul 8, Gingrich 4
03/27 NBC/Marist -- Romney 40, Santorum 33, Paul 11, Gingrich 8
03/25 Marquette -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 11, Gingrich 5

Romney holds a lead in every single poll, mostly in the high single-digits. Santorum tends to overperform his poll numbers because some of Newt Gingrich's voters shift to the chief Anti-Romney at the last minute. But aside from the WeAskAmerica poll, Gingrich has already fallen into single-digits, which is where he ended up in Illinois' vote. Thus, Santorum can only hope for the polls to be far off the mark. Because this is a primary rather than a caucus, and because there are so many pollsters reporting similar results, the polls are likely to be accurate.

Maryland Primary
04/01 PPP (D) -- Romney 52, Santorum 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 8
03/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 45, Santorum 28, Gingrich 12, Paul 7

If there was any hope that Maryland wouldn't vote like a Northeastern state, the polls don't offer it. Romney is ahead by a tremendous margin in Maryland. In D.C., there has been no polling, but Romney is guaranteed to win because Santorum isn't on the ballot. Thus, Romney is likely to win in Wisconsin and win by huge numbers in the other two contests tomorrow. Obviously Maryland and D.C. are pro-Romney, but Wisconsin should have been pro-Santorum. For most watching these results, it will be difficult not to conclude that the race is all but over.

2012 Republican Primary in Review: March 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January, February.

As March began, the ten contests on Super Tuesday--March 6th--loomed large. It was commonly understood that the Republican presidential primary had become a regional battle. The main battleground was Ohio, a Midwestern state where Rick Santorum had been polling very well prior to the Michigan primary at the end of February. Mitt Romney's campaign put all available resources into Ohio and began to close the gap.

Nationally, public opinion began to turn, slowly, against Santorum. Santorum's strength during the previous month was surface-deep; it was based on voters' lack of familiarity with his weaknesses. Still, Ohio was in his backyard. With Romney pulling ahead in the final polls, Newt Gingrich supporters in Ohio made a last-second shift over to Santorum. But it was not quite enough: Romney won Ohio by one point.

The remaining Super Tuesday states were split, with Romney winning most of them, but with Santorum doing well in the South. Critically, Santorum and Gingrich had failed to get on the ballot in Virginia, adding another win to Romney's column. And Gingrich won in his home state of Georgia, cutting into delegates Santorum would have otherwise easily taken.

Romney's win in Ohio made it readily apparent that he was the man to beat. Santorum's losses in Ohio and Michigan blunted all of the momentum he had gained during February. Yet, the split-decision on Super Tuesday brought something important to light: After a certain point, presidential primaries are based on delegate math, not momentum. In March, Romney's campaign went into full delegate mode, gathering up delegates from every little contest they could. This included several contests in island territories like Guam, Puerto Rico, and the U.S. Virgin Islands. Romney was able to accumulate a disproportionate number of delegates from these contests.

On March 13th, the three leading candidates converged on the Deep South for the primaries in Alabama and Mississippi. Because of Gingrich's strength in that portion of the South, the Anti-Romney vote was split. Early polls suggested Romney might even be able to exploit the split to win in one or both of the states. But as before, Gingrich voters strategically shifted, giving both states to Santorum. Now, finally, Gingrich's campaign was truly dead--though he refused to drop out.

Unfortunately for Santorum, it was too late. The delegate math increasingly favored Romney, who was able to win on his own turf by wide margins, while Santorum's wins usually involved prevailing by smaller margins against Romney or Romney/Gingrich. The possibility of Santorum actually winning a majority of the delegates was slim; instead, it seemed as though he was merely attempting to force a contested convention. That, along with an increasing public awareness of Santorum's faults, caused Santorum's support to erode.

On March 20th, the new dynamic was plain for all to see. Romney won the Illinois primary by a whopping 12 points. Gingrich voters had shifted to Santorum again--basically taking Gingrich out of the equation--but it didn't do much good. Santorum's last, best hope had been that Gingrich's collapse would allow the Anti-Romney vote to coalesce. The Anti-Romney vote did unite behind Santorum, but there weren't enough Anti-Romney voters left. Even in Wisconsin, another Midwestern state, early polls looked good for Romney.

As March came to a close, the Romney-favoring April calendar approached. Romney was in a dominating position. It did not appear likely that the other candidates could stop Romney from getting a majority of the delegates and winning the nomination.

What Could Make Santorum Quit?

Santorum

As the delegate math increasingly favors Mitt Romney, the Republican Party establishment has intensified pressure on Rick Santorum to drop out of the race. If Romney is almost guaranteed to win the nomination, the reasoning goes, then Santorum's refusal to quit will only undermine the Republican nominee and help Barack Obama. If and when Romney accumulates a majority of the delegates, the race will be concluded. But will Santorum quit at any point prior to that? What could make him drop out early?

A few days ago, we reviewed the situation in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday. If the polling is to be believed, Romney will carry Wisconsin and win the other two contests that day. Afterward, Elephant Watcher expects the nature of the race to change--such that it's not viewed as a real race anymore--with virtually all observers recognizing that Romney will win the nomination. After Tuesday's contests, it will be another three weeks until the next series of states will vote. It will not be a pleasant three weeks. Will Santorum quit?

The problem with inducing Santorum to quit after April 3rd is that Santorum's home state, Pennsylvania, will be among the states voting in the next batch (April 24th). The other states that day will vote for Romney. While Pennsylvania may be more competitive than expected, it should favor Santorum. How can Santorum quit right before his home state votes? If polling shows Santorum a certain loser in Pennsylvania, then he may be inclined to quit. But that's unlikely. If Santorum stays in and loses Pennsylvania, he'll have a good reason to quit.

After April 24th, Romney's lead in delegates will be at its greatest. The delegate math will be unquestionable, even if Santorum does well in Pennsylvania. This would be a good time for Santorum to end the race. Unfortunately, the calendar will again tempt Santorum to keep fighting. In May, the calendar is extremely favorable to Santorum, with many Southern states voting. The big one, Texas, will not vote until the end of May. If May's roster of states had been earlier in the calendar, Santorum would have some real momentum. (The newsmedia, which tends to overreact to short-term trends, could even fool itself into believing Santorum is getting somewhere in spite of the math.) By the time May rolls around, the math will not permit Santorum to win. However, the allure of winning all of those easy states will be very enticing to Santorum.

If Santorum is unable to resist staying in the race, he should do well in May. Nevertheless, the effect of Romney's wins in April will have a profound effect, and could lead to a collapse in Santorum's support. If Santorum manages to lose Texas, then he should quit, because the states voting in June will guarantee another string of humiliating losses. But if Santorum wins Texas, how can he immediately quit? One doesn't normally quit after a win; candidates quit after losses. So if Santorum stays in the race after Texas, he will essentially be staying in until Romney gets a majority of the delegates, which will occur on June 5th.

In summary, the delegate math and establishment pressure will suggest Santorum should quit, but the primary calendar will repeatedly encourage Santorum to stay in the race until Romney has won a majority of the delegates. Only a loss in Pennsylvania (or Texas) would be a likely trigger for an early exit by Santorum.

Wisconsin: The Final Battleground?

Next Tuesday, on April 3rd, primaries will be held in Washington D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin. Thus far, no polling has been conducted in D.C.; Mitt Romney is expected to win there since Rick Santorum is not on the ballot. In Maryland, only one poll has been conducted (yesterday by Rasmussen) showing Romney ahead of Santorum by 17 points. Given Maryland's status as a Northeastern state, Romney was always expected to win there. That leaves Wisconsin, a Midwestern state where Santorum should win if he is to have any real chance at taking the nomination--or even of forcing a contested convention. Wisconsin is on Santorum's turf. In February, polls gave Santorum a big lead there. But now, Romney has the lead. A few more Wisconsin polls should be released prior to the vote, but here is where the candidates currently stand. The two recent polls are included, and for contrast, so is the final February poll:

Wisconsin Primary
03/25 Marquette Uni -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 11, Gingrich 5
03/21 Rasmussen -- Romney 46, Santorum 33, Paul 8, Gingrich 7
02/26 PPP (D) -- Santorum 43, Romney 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 8

The race has changed dramatically since the February poll, which was conducted just days before Romney's crucial wins in Michigan and Ohio. In February, Santorum had a lead of 16 points; now Romney has a lead of about 10 points. This shift toward Romney is consistent with the shifts that have occurred previously: Santorum lost big leads in Michigan and Ohio before he was defeated by Romney.

Losing Wisconsin would be devastating for Santorum's campaign. As desperate as the situation already is, things would get even worse. Like Ohio, Wisconsin is a state where Santorum has no excuse for not winning. Santorum's campaign will be considered in free-fall, especially if he loses by a convincing margin. If that weren't bad enough, Wisconsin is one of Santorum's best states on the April calendar. He needs to win Wisconsin, if only to take one step toward counterbalancing the effect of his other losses.

Unfortunately for Santorum, there's no particular reason to think that he will be able to turn things around and defy the polls. His usual trump card for beating the polls is to benefit from the strategic defection of Newt Gingrich's supporters, who hope to coalesce the Anti-Romney vote. But Gingrich is already down to about 6 points in the polls. At least in Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois, Gingrich had been polling double-digits, so there were some votes to be had. In the Wisconsin polls, there just aren't many Gingrich voters to defect.

Wisconsin may well be the final battleground. True, there are many states to follow. In May, there are several states that heavily favor Santorum, and there are additional states throughout the calendar that will be competitive. But if Santorum loses Wisconsin, the nature of the campaign will change in a fundamental way. No longer will anyone seriously consider Santorum able to win the Republican nomination. Even Santorum's most faithful supporters will abandon hope of victory.

Santorum's Plan Unravels

In recent days, Republican voters have become increasingly aware that Rick Santorum's chances of winning the nomination are very small, and that Mitt Romney is extremely likely to win. Santorum has now spoke openly of his intention to force a contested convention, and that he does not expect to win an outright majority of the delegates. This betrays weakness on Santorum's part, and will diminish his appeal further: Most Republicans believe that a contested convention would be a disaster. Do voters think Santorum is so much better than Romney that they are willing to allow a contested convention? Some voters, but not enough.

It's notable that Santorum has reached this point even though the Romney-favored April schedule has not yet begun. After April's contests are concluded, the delegate math will look far more daunting for Santorum than it does now. So why has Santorum already fallen so far? Because his plan for winning the nomination has not been successful.

Beginning in February, we have frequently referred to the two different paths to the nomination. Romney's plan was to sweep the West and Northeast, while occasionally taking states in the Midwest. Santorum's plan was, at a minimum, to sweep the South and Midwest. Romney's campaign has gone according to plan, though it was rattled by Santorum's wins on February 7th (in Minnesota and Colorado). Santorum's plan has not gone so smoothly.

Of the Southern and Midwestern states that have voted so far, Santorum has lost around half of them--and that's not even counting the delegate losses suffered when Newt Gingrich failed to win a state but still got a bunch of delegates. The following is a list of the states in Santorum's regions that have voted, where Santorum failed to win for one reason or another:

Midwest
Iowa (lost during initial count)
Michigan
Ohio
Illinois

South
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Virginia

Remember, these are not losses in battleground regions where Santorum can afford to win some and lose some--they're losses on Santorum's home turf. Santorum was gravely weakened during the opening phase of the primary calendar, when Gingrich was considered the chief Anti-Romney for a time. Critically, Santorum also suffered narrow losses in Michigan and Ohio--contests that could have gone either way.

Things could have played out much better for Santorum. Without Gingrich in the way, Santorum would have won South Carolina and Georgia. If he had qualified for the ballot in Virginia, he would have taken that state, too. He may have fared better against Romney in Florida than Gingrich did. If Santorum had been luckier, he could have won the initial vote count in Iowa and narrowly won rather than lost in Michigan and Ohio. If all--or even some combination--of those things had occurred, the delegate math and the voters' perception of the race would look quite different.

Santorum Wins Louisiana Primary; Gingrich Fading

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Primary by more than 20 points on Saturday. Mitt Romney came in second, and Newt Gingrich was way behind with only 16% of the vote. As Elephant Watcher predicted after Santorum won in Alabama and Mississippi, Gingrich's support has evaporated--even in the Deep South, his strongest region. Louisiana was the final contest to be held in the Deep South. Gingrich will post even lower numbers in the remaining Southern states, and will poll near zero outside of the South. Though he has not dropped out of the race officially, Gingrich has become a non-factor, because he's no longer taking many of Santorum's Anti-Romney votes away.

Louisiana Primary (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 49%
Romney -- 27%
Gingrich -- 16%
Paul -- 6%

Unfortunately for Santorum, Gingrich was already a non-factor in the Midwest by the time Romney clobbered them both in Illinois. The only poll done so far in Wisconsin shows Romney well ahead of Santorum; Gingrich's numbers are already rock-bottom there. Previous contests in the West and Northeast indicate that Gingrich didn't have much support there to begin with, so Santorum has little to gain.

Santorum's win in Louisiana was expected, and will have no impact on the race as a whole. Fans of Santorum may be frustrated by the fact that when Romney does as well as expected, Romney gets closer to the nomination, but when Santorum does as well as expected, it doesn't help. Why the disparity, and why do expectations matter? The answer is that if everything goes as expected, Romney will win the nomination.

All of the projections of the race's likely trajectory--resulting in a Romney nomination--account for Santorum's wins in Louisiana and other Southern states. It's only if Santorum can pull off some truly unexpected upset wins in the Northeast and West that he can win the nomination or stop Romney from getting a majority of the delegates. Santorum's most realistic hope was that defeating Gingrich and uniting the Anti-Romney vote would be a game-changer. So far, it hasn't been. Starting with Michigan, every decisive race has gone in Romney's favor (Michigan, Ohio, Illinois).

Santorum Near Zero on Intrade

Mitt Romney's odds of winning the Republican presidential nomination are at an all-time high according to the Intrade market. Investors on Intrade currently give Romney a 93.1% chance of winning the nomination. Rick Santorum has dropped almost to zero: His stock is trading at 2.5%. But that's actually better than Romney's other competitors are faring. Ron Paul is at 1.4%, and Newt Gingrich is in last place at 0.3%. Gingrich's stock collapsed after his failures to win in the Deep South contests of Alabama and Mississippi earlier this month. It's the first time in a long time that he's doing worse than Paul on the Intrade market.

Jeb Bush, who is not running for president and recently endorsed Romney, is at 0.4%, slightly above Gingrich. Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are also trading at about that level. Jeb Bush had been acting as a stand-in of sorts on the odds of a contested convention occurring; before Bush announced he was endorsing Romney, he was actually trading at about 2.0%, almost even with Santorum.

Intrade no longer believes there's a significant chance of a contested convention (the scenario in which no candidate wins a majority of the delegates during the primary season). The market for a contested convention occurring rates the probability at 8.7%. It reached a high point of near 30% in mid-February, when Santorum was enjoying his surge. According to the market, the odds of a contested convention dropped rapidly in the days following Santorum's wins in the South; that was when the media began paying more attention to the delegate math.

Although the only polling for the Wisconsin Primary, taken back in February, had Santorum with a sizable lead, Intrade gives Romney a 64% chance of winning Wisconsin. This is reminiscent of the days before the Ohio Primary, when Intrade correctly anticipated Romney's rise and victory in the state (though the market went haywire on the night of the contest, when the vote count was extremely close). In the various Northeastern primaries taking place in April, Intrade gives Romney a lock of over 90% in each contest.

Only in Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania is the Intrade market bullish on the man's chances. Santorum is given a 66% chance of winning--not very high, considering. Intrade also foresees an early end to the primary season: The market gives Romney a 65% chance of winning Texas!

Mitt Romney Takes Illinois

Mitt Romney scored another victory over Rick Santorum in the Midwest on Tuesday, winning the Illinois Primary by a wide margin. With 82% reporting, Romney won 47% of the vote to Santorum's 35%. Newt Gingrich only took 8% of the vote--a significant erosion of the support he was polling, which wasn't that high to begin with. As expected, Newt Gingrich's recent losses in the Deep South have marginalized him further. That's what Santorum was hoping for, but it wasn't enough. If the margin holds up as more precincts report, Romney won Illinois by double-digits, an impressive win in Santorum's home region. In recent days, the polling showed Romney ahead, so Santorum was not expected to win. However, that doesn't change the fact that Illinois was a state Santorum needed to win. This was a devastating loss for the Santorum campaign.

Illinois Primary (82% reporting)
Romney -- 47%
Santorum -- 35%
Paul -- 9%
Gingrich -- 8%

The size of Romney's win in Illinois suggests that he will threaten Santorum in the Midwest again, in Wisconsin, which will vote on April 3rd. Wisconsin is one of the few states Santorum has a chance to win in April, a month whose schedule heavily favors Romney. Santorum has held a big lead over Romney in Wisconsin polls, but there hasn't been any polling there since February. Given the way the tide has turned in the overall Republican presidential primary, Santorum shouldn't count on much of a lead in Wisconsin. It's a pro-Santorum state in a pro-Santorum region, but as Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois demonstrated, that doesn't count for much anymore.

Illinois Primary Tomorrow

The Illinois Primary will be held on Tuesday. As we have mentioned before, Illinois is a crucial state in the battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Romney has been campaigning in "targets of opportunity" in the Midwest, such as Michigan and Ohio. Santorum is in the position of defending his home turf; he needs to sweep both the South and Midwest if he is to defeat Romney. Previously, Romney won by narrow margins in Michigan and Ohio. While in Michigan he had the benefit of personal ties to the state, he was at a disadvantage in Ohio--and beat Santorum anyway. Illinois, in its natural state, is considered somewhere between the two: Not as pro-Santorum as Ohio, but not as level a playing field as Michigan. Since Michigan, however, the tide has shifted against Santorum, making things easier for Romney. Despite being in the Midwest, Romney is favored to win Illinois, based on the polls:

Illinois Primary
03/18 PPP (D) -- Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
03/18 ARG -- Romney 44, Santorum 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 8
03/15 Rasmussen -- Romney 41, Santorum 32, Gingrich 14, Paul 7
03/14 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 8
03/14 Fox Chicago -- Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 8

Judging by the polls, Romney already had the edge several days ago and is also getting late momentum on top of that. Understanding the importance of Illinois, Romney has done extra campaigning there--while Santorum wasted time in Puerto Rico. However, with Newt Gingrich polling at about 14%, there's still room for his numbers to shift toward Santorum. As in the past, Santorum may do a bit better than expected due to this strategic shift of the Anti-Romney vote. In this case, Romney's margin in the polling suggests he can safely assume a win in Illinois, regardless of that shift.

How can Santorum justify the loss of another state in the Midwest? He would likely point to the fact that Illinois is a left-leaning state that votes Democratic in presidential elections. It's true, but it shouldn't be too much comfort for Santorum going forward: The Midwestern states voting in April--both "must-win" states for Santorum--are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both of which have also been voting Democratic in recent presidential elections. Pennsylvania is Santorum's home state, so he shouldn't lose there, but losing Wisconsin would be very damaging.

Mitt Romney Wins Landslide in Puerto Rico

Romney

Mitt Romney sailed to victory in Puerto Rico, the final island caucus. As with other U.S. territories, Puerto Rico has a number of delegates--despite the fact that it cannot cast electoral college votes in presidential elections. Unlike the other territories, Puerto Rico has a big enough population to give it as many delegates as a medium-sized state. The delegates (or the possibility of a quasi-vacation) drew Rick Santorum to campaign in person in Puerto Rico, despite long odds against winning there. Romney's establishment support made him the early favorite, and Santorum's campaigning did nothing to put a dent in Romney's support. Though only about a third of the vote has been reported, Romney appears to have obliterated Santorum:

Puerto Rico Caucus (38% reporting)
Romney -- 88%
Santorum -- 8%
Gingrich -- 2%
Paul -- 1%

Santorum may have been attempting to keep Romney below the winner-take-all threshold of 50%. From the reported numbers, Santorum had no luck. Puerto Rico's result highlights one of Santorum's biggest problems over the last several weeks: While Romney has broken into the Midwest at various times, and has even taken advantage of the Santorum-Gingrich split to narrow the margins in the South occasionally, Santorum has been unable to return the favor. Instead, Santorum has been losing on Romney's turf by oversized margins that have a real impact on the delegate count.

Santorum would have been advised to spend his time in Illinois instead. Its primary will be held this Tuesday, and is an important contest because it represents another opportunity for Romney to pick off a Midwestern state. Aside from Louisiana, Illinois will also be the last contest to be held prior to the pro-Romney calendar of winner-take-all states in April.

Mitt Romney's Plan

Previously, we examined which portions of the primary calendar are biased toward which candidates, based on which regions of the country are over-represented or under-represented. The month of March, post-Super Tuesday, had a mixed-bag schedule, since one-third were pro-Romney states, one-third were Midwestern states, and one-third of the contests were in the Deep South. Rick Santorum cleared a major hurdle by winning in Alabama and Mississippi--or to be more accurate, by preventing Newt Gingrich from winning there. Santorum is likely to take Louisiana as well, knocking Gingrich out of the race (either officially or effectively).

In spite of this, Mitt Romney has extended his delegate lead since Super Tuesday by leveraging his ability to win big on his home turf and compete everywhere else. Romney's path to a delegate majority is clear, while Santorum's campaign struggles to put forward a convincing case that they can do more than force a contested convention. What is Romney's plan to knock Santorum out of the race and put an end to the Republican primary?

As before, Romney expects to win the West and Northeast, while targeting certain Midwestern states to pick off. So far, his strategy has succeeded, producing narrow wins in Michigan and Ohio. The next state he hopes to win in Santorum's region is Illinois, voting on March 20th. Illinois is likely to be more favorable to Romney than Ohio, thanks to the Chicago area. But Illinois is still the kind of state Santorum absolutely must win in order to put together a delegate majority.

In April, the winner-take-all section of the primary begins. Not every state is winner-take-all in the traditional sense (i.e. all delegates are awarded to the winner of the state's popular vote). Each state has different variations, such as winner-take-all by district, or partially by popular vote, etc. The important thing is that it's easier for the winner of each state to take a disproportionately large number of delegates from April onward.

April's calendar is heavily tilted in favor of Romney, with six Northeastern contests, two Midwestern ones, and none in the South. On April 3rd, the first group votes: Maryland, D.C., and Wisconsin. Santorum is not on the ballot in D.C., and as a Northeastern state, Maryland favors Romney. Like other Midwestern states, Wisconsin favors Santorum. But unlike, say, Kansas, it's plausible for Romney to eke out a win Wisconsin. If Romney wins there, it will be devastating to Santorum; if Romney loses there, it doesn't matter much.

On April 24th, voting takes place in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Romney is favored in all of these states but Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is pro-Santorum to be sure: It's not only a Midwestern state, it's his home state. Even so, if Santorum is reeling from other losses and Romney runs a good campaign there, it could possibly be competitive. A Romney win in Pennsylvania would knock Santorum out of the race. A Romney loss in Pennsylvania would do no harm; he's guaranteed a huge delegate haul from the other states voting that day.

By the end of April, Romney's delegate advantage will be massive. In the wake of Super Tuesday, Romney's campaign calculated--and it became the conventional wisdom--that Romney had taken 55% of the delegates up to that point, and needed to win about 48% of the remainder. By contrast, Santorum needed about 67% of the remainder to get a majority. Each time Santorum fails to hit the 67% mark, that figure increases, because he has to make up the difference. After the April 24th states vote, Santorum may need to win so many of the remaining delegates that even his campaign won't be able to make the case that it could happen.

What happens then? Santorum's only option is to try forcing a contested convention by preventing Romney from getting a majority. Right now, that's Santorum's only probable hope, but by the end of April the math may force him to admit it. The problem is that most Republican voters--regardless of which candidate they prefer--understand that a contested convention would have a disastrous effect on the winning candidate's chances in a general election. If Santorum is too far behind, his odds of getting the nomination (at the convention) will appear so small that a contested convention is merely an act of self-destruction for the Republican Party.

In such a case, some voters who lean Santorum (or Gingrich, if he retains a constituency) could flip to Romney. No longer seeing a Santorum victory as a possibility, they will vote Romney because that's what is necessary to defeat Barack Obama.

The May schedule is very favorable to Santorum, with two Midwestern states, five Southern states, and only Oregon starting from a pro-Romney position. Assuming Santorum hasn't already been knocked out in Pennsylvania, the first sign of Santorum's collapse would appear on May 8th, when Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia vote. All three states are pro-Santorum. If Santorum sweeps them, he could experience a "dead cat bounce" during May. The calendar would be favorable enough to give him a number of wins. Since the news media and pundits tend to overreact to short-term trends, they will proclaim it as a sign of grave weakness on Romney's part--until the June states put Romney over the top. But if Santorum has been weakened sufficiently, Indiana or North Carolina--even both--could vote for Romney, and the race will effectively be over.

Romney Wins Hawaii and Samoa

In the late night hours after Rick Santorum wrapped up the two Southern states voting on Tuesday, the Hawaii Caucus and the American Samoa Caucus reported that Mitt Romney won there. The two caucuses are the latest in Romney's series of island wins. That bodes well for his chances in Puerto Rico, voting later this month. In review, Santorum was able to earn wins in the South which, while narrow in margin, will have a greater strategic importance because they will knock Newt Gingrich out of the race. Meanwhile, Romney continued racking up the delegates with his big-margin wins in Hawaii and American Samoa, along with his ability to take nearly a third of the vote in the Southern states.

The following are the Hawaii results; American Samoa reported Romney will win all of its delegates.

Hawaii Caucus (100% reporting)
Romney -- 45%
Santorum -- 25%
Paul -- 18%
Gingrich -- 11%

It's been reported that despite the larger populations of Alabama and Mississippi, Romney won more delegates than Santorum did on Tuesday. This is significant, because the post-Super Tuesday portion of March is the most Santorum-friendly section of the primary calendar, aside from May. Santorum desperately needs to get big delegate wins in order to offset his preexisting deficit, to say nothing of offsetting the pro-Romney calendar in April and June.

Instead, Romney has only increased his delegate lead, making Santorum's job all the more difficult. That's why Gingrich's presence in the race up to this point undermines Santorum's chances going forward. Even if Gingrich were to quit tomorrow, the damage has been done.