Monday, April 2, 2012
Wisconsin, D.C., and Maryland Tomorrow
04/01 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 16, Gingrich 15
04/01 PPP (D) -- Romney 43, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 8
03/29 Rasmussen -- Romney 44, Santorum 34, Paul 7, Gingrich 7
03/28 St.Norbert -- Romney 37, Santorum 32, Paul 8, Gingrich 4
03/27 NBC/Marist -- Romney 40, Santorum 33, Paul 11, Gingrich 8
03/25 Marquette -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 11, Gingrich 5
Romney holds a lead in every single poll, mostly in the high single-digits. Santorum tends to overperform his poll numbers because some of Newt Gingrich's voters shift to the chief Anti-Romney at the last minute. But aside from the WeAskAmerica poll, Gingrich has already fallen into single-digits, which is where he ended up in Illinois' vote. Thus, Santorum can only hope for the polls to be far off the mark. Because this is a primary rather than a caucus, and because there are so many pollsters reporting similar results, the polls are likely to be accurate.
04/01 PPP (D) -- Romney 52, Santorum 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 8
03/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 45, Santorum 28, Gingrich 12, Paul 7
If there was any hope that Maryland wouldn't vote like a Northeastern state, the polls don't offer it. Romney is ahead by a tremendous margin in Maryland. In D.C., there has been no polling, but Romney is guaranteed to win because Santorum isn't on the ballot. Thus, Romney is likely to win in Wisconsin and win by huge numbers in the other two contests tomorrow. Obviously Maryland and D.C. are pro-Romney, but Wisconsin should have been pro-Santorum. For most watching these results, it will be difficult not to conclude that the race is all but over.