Newt Gingrich Calls It Quits

Gingrich

Newt Gingrich announced today that he, like Rick Santorum, has suspended his campaign and is conceding the race to Mitt Romney. The Campaign Status page has been updated to reflect Gingrich's departure; only Romney and Ron Paul remain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. Gingrich's concession will have little impact on the race, since his campaign was already dead in the water. However, it does help ensure that Romney will win the Southern primary contests in May by a wide margin. If Gingrich or Santorum had remained in the race and scored a large protest vote, it would have embarrassed Romney. Now, the only potential recipient of protest votes will be Paul, who appeals to few voters.

Gingrich had a lot of ups and downs in the race. He stumbled out of the gate with a poor performance on "Meet the Press" in May 2011. He was written off by most observers, but he steadily gained attention with his strong debate performances. Yet Gingrich did not "debate" his opponents in the traditional sense; he did not attack or get into arguments with his competitors. Instead, he presented "red meat" to the base in an interesting and articulate fashion. Gingrich, like so many others in the race, waited his turn as candidates crashed and burned. When Michele Bachmann, Rick Perry, and Herman Cain all cratered, Gingrich's numbers rose. By the end of November 2011, he was in the lead.

For a time, Gingrich had truly impressive poll numbers. In December, he was leading by a substantial margin in national primary polls as well as the state polls in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. Romney's campaign held firm, refusing to unleash its attack ads until mid-December, when they believed Iowa voters were really making up their minds. The attacks had an extraordinary impact, proving Gingrich had feet of clay. Gingrich crashed just in time for Santorum's numbers to go up, leading to a virtual tie in Iowa between Romney and Santorum.

The Gingrich rollercoaster wasn't finished, however. After Gingrich did badly in both the Iowa and New Hampshire contests, he suddenly rose again to win the South Carolina Primary by 12 points. He had done well in the debates again (particularly by attacking the liberal moderators), and he benefited from his regional connection. Romney inadvertently helped Gingrich by making some unforced errors, like not releasing his tax returns and not launching attack ads against Gingrich as he had in Iowa.

But once Romney's campaign returned to form, Gingrich was crushed in Florida. Republican voters clearly had reservations about Romney, but they were more afraid of selecting a candidate with Gingrich's doubtful electability. Nor could Gingrich's debate performances save him once Romney started taking an aggressive posture in the debates: Gingrich was good at expounding on various topics, but he wasn't very good at debating an opponent head-to-head. After Florida, the anti-Romney vote switched horses to Santorum and never looked back.

What will Gingrich's legacy be? He proved the importance of debates in the primary process. He also demonstrated Republican voters' preference for electability over red meat. Gingrich saw himself as a man locked in mortal combat with Romney, but ultimately Gingrich served to help Romney. Gingrich was the second-to-last Anti-Romney candidate. Santorum, the final Anti-Romney, was a stronger one, since he had fewer electability issues (though he did have some). Gingrich essentially took up space that Santorum needed. Gingrich's rise and fall in Iowa delayed Santorum's own rise, preventing Santorum from getting his needed clear-cut victory there. And Gingrich's victory in South Carolina prevented Santorum from gaining any steam until February. Gingrich also took some delegates that otherwise would have gone to Santorum. If Santorum had gotten those delegates, the race would have appeared closer, and Santorum probably would have performed better in late February, when Romney started beating him.

Santorum Near Zero on Intrade

Mitt Romney's odds of winning the Republican presidential nomination are at an all-time high according to the Intrade market. Investors on Intrade currently give Romney a 93.1% chance of winning the nomination. Rick Santorum has dropped almost to zero: His stock is trading at 2.5%. But that's actually better than Romney's other competitors are faring. Ron Paul is at 1.4%, and Newt Gingrich is in last place at 0.3%. Gingrich's stock collapsed after his failures to win in the Deep South contests of Alabama and Mississippi earlier this month. It's the first time in a long time that he's doing worse than Paul on the Intrade market.

Jeb Bush, who is not running for president and recently endorsed Romney, is at 0.4%, slightly above Gingrich. Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are also trading at about that level. Jeb Bush had been acting as a stand-in of sorts on the odds of a contested convention occurring; before Bush announced he was endorsing Romney, he was actually trading at about 2.0%, almost even with Santorum.

Intrade no longer believes there's a significant chance of a contested convention (the scenario in which no candidate wins a majority of the delegates during the primary season). The market for a contested convention occurring rates the probability at 8.7%. It reached a high point of near 30% in mid-February, when Santorum was enjoying his surge. According to the market, the odds of a contested convention dropped rapidly in the days following Santorum's wins in the South; that was when the media began paying more attention to the delegate math.

Although the only polling for the Wisconsin Primary, taken back in February, had Santorum with a sizable lead, Intrade gives Romney a 64% chance of winning Wisconsin. This is reminiscent of the days before the Ohio Primary, when Intrade correctly anticipated Romney's rise and victory in the state (though the market went haywire on the night of the contest, when the vote count was extremely close). In the various Northeastern primaries taking place in April, Intrade gives Romney a lock of over 90% in each contest.

Only in Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania is the Intrade market bullish on the man's chances. Santorum is given a 66% chance of winning--not very high, considering. Intrade also foresees an early end to the primary season: The market gives Romney a 65% chance of winning Texas!

Mitt Romney Wins Washington

Mitt Romney won the Washington Caucus on Saturday. It's the fourth straight win for Romney, who won Maine, Arizona, and Michigan in recent days. Romney's margin of victory was rather large--11 points as of this writing--despite the fact that he did not campaign there. Ron Paul was the only candidate to commit resources to the state, and he roughly tied Rick Santorum for second place. As we wrote in yesterday's preview post, there was little polling in Washington, and it certainly didn't predict a Romney win of such size.

Washington Caucus (77% reporting)
Romney -- 36%
Paul -- 25%
Santorum -- 24%
Gingrich -- 11%

Given the fact that Washington is naturally a pro-Romney state, is there any significance to this win, other than contributing to the narrative of Romney's recovery and/or winning streak? Yes. Recall that both Colorado and Maine were also pro-Romney states. Romney didn't perform nearly as well in those February caucuses: Romney only won Maine by 3 points over Paul, and he lost Colorado by 5 to Santorum. Tonight in Washington, Romney blew his competition out of the water.

It's also significant that Romney was able to do so without committing resources there (i.e. airing anti-Santorum ads). It's possible that this result indicates Santorum's support is falling away more rapidly now. Compared to Santorum's performance in Colorado back in February, there's been a roughly 15-point swing in Romney's favor. Voters across the nation are more familiar with Santorum's weaknesses, and watching the Democrats attempt to give Santorum the win in Michigan created an incentive for Republicans to close ranks around Romney.

Nevertheless, the real test will come on Super Tuesday, March 6th. States in all different regions of the country will be voting, and the true extent of Santorum's strength will be made clear.

Washington Caucus Tomorrow

The Washington Caucus will be held tomorrow. It's the last stop before Super Tuesday on March 6th, when ten states will vote. Wedged between Super Tuesday and the important Arizona and Michigan Primaries, it's understandable that Washington has received little attention. It's a non-binding caucus in which no delegates will be immediately awarded, so none of the candidates have bothered to campaign there--except for Ron Paul. Paul believes that he performs better in caucuses (and obviously performs better when no one is contesting him). He came very close to winning the Maine Caucus back in February. Very little polling has been done in the state, and the potential for polling inaccuracy is even greater because it's a caucus rather than a primary. But here is what we have:

Washington Caucus
03/01 PPP (D) -- Romney 37, Santorum 32, Paul 16, Gingrich 13
02/19 PPP (D) -- Santorum 38, Romney 27, Paul 15, Gingrich 12

That's not a lot to go on. PPP's track record isn't great, especially when it comes to polling caucuses. Recall that PPP gave Mitt Romney a 14-point lead in the Colorado Caucus just days before Rick Santorum took the state by 5. PPP's poll of the Minnesota Caucus was also wildly inaccurate.

Given the structure of the contest and given what happened in Maine, perhaps Paul ought to perform better than expected. As for the state itself, Washington should be Romney-friendly territory: It's a blue state, a Western state, and it has a decent-sized Mormon population. Although we can't get much useful information from the PPP polls, at least we can compare them to each other. Comparing the polls, Santorum had an 11-point lead and now trails by 5 points, a swing of 16. That fits with the overall movement nationally; Santorum's surge has subsided and Romney is on the rise again.

The shift in the poll from Santorum to Romney was not caused by campaigning, since neither candidate has campaigned there. If anything, Washington might be an interesting test of what happens when Romney doesn't use his money advantage to launch negative ads against his opponent.

2012 Republican Primary in Review: February 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January.

In February 2012, Newt Gingrich's campaign suffered total collapse in the wake of Mitt Romney's wins in Florida and Nevada. Rick Santorum pulled a surprise comeback and flipped everything on its head, securing his position as the chief Anti-Romney and transforming the presidential primary into a two-man race.

After winning the Florida Primary at the end of January, Romney's campaign appeared unstoppable. But although Republican voters dismissed Gingrich, they were not at ease with Romney. On February 1st, Romney made a gaffe during a televised interview in which he suggested he was not very concerned about the poor. This remark, though taken out of context, fit into a preexisting narrative of Romney being rich and out of touch.

As a result, concerns about Romney's electability simmered under the surface. This wasn't apparent in Nevada, which voted on February 4th: Romney won a huge victory over Gingrich. Meanwhile, Santorum had been campaigning in the February 7th states, which the other candidates skipped because no pledged delegates were to be awarded there. The absence of the other candidates, combined with Gingrich's defeats and ineligibility for the Missouri ballot, Romney's gaffe, and Santorum's status as the last Anti-Romney, all combined to create a perfect storm. Santorum won the three states voting on February 7th--Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

At last, Santorum got to experience the surge that all of the other Anti-Romney candidates had enjoyed. Though the states he won awarded no delegates, Santorum finally got the media attention he had previously been denied. Santorum rose in all of the polls. Voters were unfamiliar with Santorum, viewing him as essentially a generic Republican. But as with previous surges, they gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he had no weaknesses. Santorum jumped to the top of the polls, and showed particular strength in his home region of the Midwest.

Romney's campaign once again was in crisis. On February 11th, Romney barely edged out Ron Paul to win the Maine Caucus. Paul had spent a lot of time there; Romney only devoted some last-minute resources there in the hope of drawing attention away from his defeats on February 7th. All eyes were on Michigan, set to vote at the end of the month. Despite being the state of Romney's birth, Santorum dominated the polls there.

Romney understood that he had to reveal Santorum's vulnerabilities to the voters if he had any chance of coming back to win Michigan. However, Romney had taken a lot of flak in some circles for being "too negative" against Gingrich earlier in the campaign. Rather than attack Santorum's electability, Romney decided to attack Santorum's conservative credentials while bolstering his own. Romney and Santorum committed all of their resources to the battle in Michigan. Arizona was left uncontested, and Gingrich retired to the South.

On February 22nd, the only debate of the month was held. Romney and Paul attacked Santorum's conservative credentials. Santorum did not wilt under pressure, but he couldn't escape the attacks, either. In the media, some information about the extreme nature of Santorum's social views began to filter out, but only slowly. Thus far, Romney and the Republican establishment chose not to address the issue. Still, the attacks against Santorum's conservatism gave voters new information, and Romney closed the gap. In desperation, Santorum attempted to promote the Democrats' plan to sabotage the Michigan Primary with votes for Santorum.

On February 28th, Romney won Arizona by 20 points. Though Democrats voting for Santorum cut Romney's margin of victory in Michigan by about half, Romney still managed to win there by 3 points. Romney and the Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief. But the Super Tuesday states, including Ohio and a number of Southern states where Santorum still held a lead, loomed ahead.

Romney ended the month clearly in the lead position. But Santorum remained largely unvetted and still strong in the polls. In some quarters, Republicans who had not been pro-Romney began to express a desire to see the primary come to a close. The idea increased in popularity that an extended primary fight would only help Barack Obama; the Democrats' attempt to swing the Michigan Primary to Santorum added to that perception. Fear of a contested convention also rose--Romney's opponents might not be able to win a majority of the delegates, but they could prevent Romney from getting one.

Rick Santorum Declines on Intrade

About two weeks ago, Rick Santorum had risen to 18% on the Intrade market for the Republican nomination. It was the highest Santorum reached. Since then, he has lost almost two-thirds of that, dropping to 7%. Much of that decline occurred in the last several days. Intrade investors were not impressed by his performance at the February 22nd debate, and they smelled weakness in the latest polls coming out of Michigan and Arizona.

Intrade investors are now increasingly confident that Mitt Romney will win the nomination. Aside from a brief period of post-South Carolina panic, Romney has been trading at 70% or more for a long time; Santorum's decline has brought Romney back up to 79.7%.

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still well behind, trading at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Those four men are the only candidates in the race, but there are now two more individuals getting a small piece of the Intrade action. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are each trading in the single-digits. Christie is at 1%, and Bush is actually managing to pull in 2.7 percent--almost as high as Paul and Gingrich. Are Christie and Bush planning to get in the race? No. But their numbers reflect the possibility of a contested or brokered convention, a scenario in which none of the current candidates gets a majority of the delegates and a total meltdown ensues.

Meanwhile, the Intrade markets for state contests are much more favorable for Romney than they were two weeks ago. Romney is given a 95% chance of winning Arizona and a 76.7% chance of winning Michigan. Intrade investors were always skeptical of the earlier polls showing Santorum way up in Michigan, but he had gotten as high as 60% to win when the Santorum surge was cresting.

Who Won the Republican Debate on February 22nd?

Going into tonight's debate, Rick Santorum had the most to lose. As we have discussed before, Santorum's surge this month was similar to the other surges that took place this primary season: It was based on voters giving a new candidate the benefit of the doubt and assuming he was a perfect conservative. Thus, Santorum's goal was to protect his image of being an unblemished Tea Partier. But Santorum took a lot of hits during the debate. For the first time, he was cross-examined by his opponents. Santorum lost the debate because the attacks used against him were new to most voters, and they will do damage. By contrast, Mitt Romney took few hits, and those he received were old news, so they will have little impact. Romney won the debate.

That's not to say Santorum did a terrible job. He was not eviscerated by Romney the way Newt Gingrich was in the pre-Florida debate. Santorum appeared intelligent, sincere, and passionate. He was capable of going head-to-head with Romney. Santorum also had the good fortune of not being painted as a religious extremist by the moderator. But Santorum was repeatedly forced into the position of defending or excusing un-conservative actions he took as a senator. All of this will be news to the Tea Partiers watching the debate. Meanwhile, Santorum was not able to break any new ground against Romney.

Romney and Gingrich both did well in the debate. Gingrich chose to return to his old pattern of being positive and not going on the attack against other candidates. Gingrich's answers were good, but since he is no longer in the running, any strength he has simply benefits Romney by undermining Santorum. Romney spent most of his time bolstering his own conservative credentials by reciting specific actions he took as governor of Massachusetts and attacking Barack Obama.

Ron Paul decided to make himself relevant in the debate by repeatedly attacking Santorum for not being conservative enough. Paul concentrated all of his fire on Santorum. Much of the time, Santorum defended himself well, but he still took some damage. That's the problem with being on the defensive.

There were no extraordinary gaffes or stand-out moments in the debate. The crowd was clearly pro-Romney; they applauded and cheered Romney's responses and at one point even booed Santorum, when Santorum was making an excuse for having voted for an appropriations bill that included funding for Planned Parenthood. The most memorable moments of the debate, such as that one, tended to involve Santorum being forced into a corner. Santorum felt compelled to defend his earmarks as senator. As senator he also supported "No Child Left Behind" and had to admit that it was a mistake. Worse, he said that he only did it because he had to "go along" with the team. Romney criticized Santorum for supporting Arlen Specter, a "RINO" senator who voted for Obamacare; Santorum defended Specter at length.

Santorum did not appear unelectable, but at times it appeared that he was running to the left of Romney. Since Santorum's entire candidacy is based on being the conservative alternative to Romney (i.e. being to the right of Romney and Gingrich), it was a bad night for Santorum.

Santorum Rises on Intrade; Romney Still Dominates

When we last examined the Intrade market for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney was poised to win Florida. He was near 90% on Intrade, and his nearest rival was in the low single-digits. Since then, Romney won Florida and Nevada by huge margins--but was derailed by Rick Santorum's three-state win on February 7th.

Romney still dominates the Intrade market, standing at 73.5%, nearly triple the rest of his competitors combined. But Santorum has risen to 16%. Prior to his win last Tuesday, Santorum was trading at less than 2%. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are trading at 3% and 2.3%, respectively. Once it became clear Gingrich was going to lose Florida, he cratered. He continues to be mired in the low single-digits. The question is, how high will Santorum go?

The Intrade markets on individual states reveal a fog of confusion about the future of the race. Intrade's investors are unsure of whether Santorum will be able to pull out more wins in the Midwest--wins he'll absolutely need if Romney is to be stopped.

Of the three contests taking place prior to Super Tuesday (Arizona, Michigan, and Washington), Intrade is confident Romney will win Arizona (80%) and Washington (65%). But in the all-important state of Michigan, the market is split: Santorum is at 55% and Romney is at 45%. This market has been going back and forth between the two competitors. The same is true of Super Tuesday's biggest state, Ohio, where Romney is trading at 50% and Santorum at 55% (these are sell orders, which is why they sometimes add to over 100%).

Lack of regular polling of Michigan and Ohio explains why Intrade is so cautious about taking a stand on those important states. Michigan is one of Romney's "home states," and Ohio is an expensive place to campaign, but Intrade gives Romney no edge. Tuesday's contests in Minnesota and Missouri showed Santorum strong and Romney weak in the Midwest. Intrade has adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Mitt Romney Wins Maine Caucus

Mitt Romney won the Maine Caucus on Saturday, narrowly edging out Ron Paul. While Romney beat Paul by 3 points among the reporting precincts, so few people vote in the Maine Caucus that it amounted to less than 200 votes. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich placed far behind. The Republican Party of Maine officially declared Romney the winner, even though some precincts have yet to report; some of these precincts may be participating in the caucus outside of the February 4-11th timeframe. Even if, as in Iowa, a later tally gave the victory to Romney's opponent, Romney is the beneficiary of the result here. Since there are no delegates to be won in the non-binding caucus, all of the benefit comes from positive media.

Maine Caucus (84% reporting)
Romney -- 39%
Paul -- 36%
Santorum -- 18%
Gingrich -- 6%

What will Maine's impact be, and what do the results reveal? Overall, little. There are some things to be gleaned, but they point in opposing directions, for a small net impact. Romney won, blunting the "Romney's campaign is falling" narrative. That is balanced by the fact that he won by a small amount. But that, in turn, is balanced by the fact that his nearest competitor was Paul, rather than Santorum, whom he trounced by 20 points. That's good news for Romney, especially since it reinforces the notion that Romney holds an advantage over Santorum in the Northeast. On the other hand, Santorum still has time to rise from his surge; however, Santorum has not been vetted yet. Santorum also takes away good news, since he beat Gingrich, the competing Anti-Romney, by a substantial margin. This, too, is balanced somewhat by the fact that it took place in a Northeastern state where Gingrich was not expected to do well.

As one can tell from the description in the preceding paragraph, the circumstances make for a muddled analysis rather than providing one clear lesson. If Santorum had won, or if Gingrich had beaten Santorum, things would have been interesting.

The first real battle between Santorum and Romney will take place in Michigan, which holds its primary on February 28th. One debate will take place prior to that primary, on February 22nd. Until then, the extent of Santorum's strength won't be fully clear.

Maine Caucus Finishes Tomorrow

Tomorrow, voters in Maine will finish voting in the Maine Caucus. As with the other contests this week, the Maine Caucus will be non-binding, so no delegates will be awarded. Very little attention has been paid to this contest--even less than to the states that voted on Tuesday--so there is no polling data whatsoever. The Intrade market currently gives Mitt Romney a 69% chance of winning--and gives Ron Paul a 30% chance. The only reporting on Maine has been that none of the candidates have been spending their resources on Maine, except for Paul. Paul's campaign believes he is stronger in caucus states, and lacking competition in Maine, hopes to pull out a win.

By its nature, Maine is a pro-Romney state: It is a Northeastern state and voted for Romney back in 2008. However, as we saw in Minnesota and Colorado earlier this week, that doesn't mean it's a lock for Romney. Since the Romney campaign is in "delegate mode" and concerned only with racking up delegates, it makes sense that they would skip the state. But because Maine will be the last state to vote prior to the important contests on February 28th (in Arizona and Michigan), it may contribute to or blunt certain media narratives.

The media is uncertain whether Rick Santorum's sweep of three states on Tuesday was a fluke, or whether Romney is going down in flames. It's also unclear whether Newt Gingrich's campaign is completely collapsing, with all of its support going over to Santorum. Maine may provide some hints, even though no one beside Paul is attempting to compete there.

If Romney loses the state, there will be some rumblings about his weakness. If he wins, it will be treated as a signal of his strength in the Northeast. If Paul wins the state, Maine may be written off as meaningless. Attention will also be paid to Santorum's and Gingrich's numbers. If Santorum does poorly, the media will begin grasping onto the idea that the regions are split among candidates (Romney in the Northeast/West, Gingrich in the South, Santorum in the Midwest). If Santorum does well, particularly if he does much better than Gingrich, it will be viewed as a sign of his emerging status as chief Anti-Romney.

It's not unrealistic to think Santorum could do better than expected. When other candidates surged during this primary season, they surged across the country at once. Santorum has not been vetted yet, and certainly hasn't been attacked in negative campaigning in Maine, so voters will assume for now that he has no real weaknesses.

Paths to the Republican Nomination

After performing miserably in four consecutive contests (NH, SC, FL, and NV), Rick Santorum made an incredible comeback on Tuesday, winning three states at once. Prior to this, Newt Gingrich seemed to be the only candidate capable of scoring a big victory against Mitt Romney. With Santorum back in the race, it's worth taking a look at the different paths the candidates could take toward winning the nomination.

Ron Paul. Though it's disappointing news to his enthusiastic fanbase, Ron Paul has no path to the nomination and never will. Paul wins respect for his consistency, but few can imagine him as a serious contender for the presidency. He is far more frequently described as a "kook" or "nut" than as "presidential." Paul will be lucky to win a state at all, much less the nomination. Even if a catastrophe occurred, resulting in the death of the three other contenders, the Republican establishment would see to it that someone else is nominated at the convention.

Newt Gingrich. Gingrich's path to the nomination, if unlikely, had been apparent: He could secure his role as the chief Anti-Romney, win the Southern states, and hope that he could win enough neutral battleground states to offset Romney's advantage in the Northeast, West, and "blue" states. Losing Florida by 14 points was a serious setback for Gingrich. Seeing Santorum win three states last Tuesday was ruinous. Gingrich no longer has a clear path to the nomination.

It is possible that Gingrich could get ahead of Santorum again. It would require Gingrich to do very well in the next few debates (and probably require Santorum to do badly at them). Gingrich would also need to hope Romney's attack machine cuts Santorum down to size. But even if Gingrich eventually manages to wrest the Anti-Romney vote back from Santorum, it will be too late. Gingrich needs every delegate he can get, and he can't afford to spend the next few weeks splitting the Anti-Romney vote while fighting his way back on top.

Mitt Romney. Though alarming, Romney's losses in CO, MN, and MO on Tuesday do not change his basic equation. Romney's campaign is the only one (besides Paul's) that managed to get on the ballot with a full slate of delegates in every state. For the time being, he is the only candidate with the organization and money to compete for delegates everywhere in the country. The "winner-take-all" phase of the primary is heavily stacked in his favor, with many states in the Northeast and West and few in the South. As long as Romney continues to perform well in his best regions, gobble up as many delegates as he can in the South, and use his money advantage to strongly compete in the battleground states, he is the favorite to win.

Assuming Romney is able to "vet" Santorum with the kind of negative ads that destroyed Gingrich in Iowa and Florida, Santorum's resurgence will be to Romney's benefit. Obviously Romney would prefer to compete against Gingrich than Santorum. But if both of his competitors are robust without being too strong, they'll split the Anti-Romney vote. Moreover, at some point Santorum and Gingrich will need to bow to the reality that they are competing with each other for the same voters. It's tempting for Anti-Romney voters to wish for a truce between Gingrich and Santorum, but it simply makes too much sense for Gingrich and Santorum to attack each other instead. There's a reason why Gingrich was demanding that Santorum drop out of the race, and it wasn't ideological disagreement.

Rick Santorum. Despite his disadvantages, Santorum now has a clear path to the nomination. It's not an easy one, and those disadvantages (lack of money/organization, failure to fully qualify on ballots in several states, having yet to be vetted, etc.) are more likely to sink him than not. Still, he has a path. Santorum is in a race against time. He must do well enough against Gingrich in the next several contests to push him out of the way and fully capture the Anti-Romney vote before Super Tuesday. Santorum can win if he is able to dominate the South and the Midwest, while performing decently in Romney's strongholds of the Northeast and West.

The challenge for Santorum is that he must squeeze Gingrich out of the race and take all the Southern delegates for himself. The South is the most anti-Romney region, as well as being the most pro-Gingrich. In a two-man race, this would not matter: Without Gingrich in the running, Gingrich voters would happily go over to Santorum instead of Romney. In a three-man race, it's different. Santorum is faced with the task of getting pro-Gingrich voters in the South to abandon Gingrich and join him. To do that, he needs to beat Gingrich enough to make Gingrich's candidacy look like it's over, and in a hurry.

Santorum Sweeps CO, MN, and MO

Rick Santorum won a clean sweep of the three states holding contests on Tuesday, winning Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Although no delegates were awarded (CO and MN were non-binding caucuses, and MO's actual contest is in March), it's almost beside the point: Santorum needed something dramatic to get him ahead of Newt Gingrich and back into the race, and he got it. Reporting suggests that Gingrich had skipped these states to focus on the Southern contests later down the road, and that Mitt Romney--with campaign in full "delegate mode"--largely ignored these contests to focus on Arizona and Michigan, which will be held at the end of the month. Meanwhile, Santorum had skipped Florida and Nevada to focus on Tuesday's states. But the results reveal more than just the campaigns' different strategies:

Colorado Caucus (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 40%
Romney -- 35%
Gingrich -- 13%
Paul -- 12%

Minnesota Caucus (95% reporting)
Santorum -- 45%
Paul -- 27%
Romney -- 17%
Gingrich -- 11%

Missouri Primary (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 55%
Romney -- 25%
Paul -- 12%
Gingrich -- [not on ballot]

The strength of Santorum's wins, particularly in Minnesota and Missouri, reveal three things. First, it shows weakness on Romney's part. While he may have skipped these contests, he ought to have done better considering the momentum he built up from his early wins and Santorum's early losses. Romney also has reason to be concerned about his relative strength compared to Santorum in the Midwest (IA, MN, MO). Romney's failure in Minnesota makes it especially clear, considering he won that state in 2008 after having lost big in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The second thing the results reveal is the weakness of Gingrich as chief Anti-Romney. If Tuesday was a bad night for Romney, it was fatal for Gingrich. The voters in these states seem to have taken Santorum's central campaign argument to heart: Gingrich won't beat Romney, so another alternative is needed. Even without having won delegates, the perception of the race will shift, causing Gingrich supporters to jump on the Santorum bandwagon. Santorum's numbers will surge.

The third item revealed in Tuesday's results is that Santorum is unvetted. He has not been subject to any media scrutiny or negative ads by the other candidates. The race has returned to its old pattern, with yet another Anti-Romney surging. Back in December, we explored the question of why candidates kept surging and crashing. The answer is that voters assume each new candidate is both highly conservative and highly electable. But because no candidate in the field possesses both those qualities, their numbers crash once the candidate's weaknesses are revealed. Santorum's late surge in Iowa was blunted, and he was never considered a threat. He is the last candidate to have a surge--and crash.

What happens next? After the non-binding Maine Caucus ends this Saturday, there will be a debate on February 22nd and the next two primaries will be in Arizona and Michigan on February 28th. In the meantime, Romney's campaign, which must feel like it is playing whack-a-mole, will begin attacking Santorum and heavily campaigning in AZ and MI.

If Santorum emerges from his vetting unscathed and does well in AZ/MI, his odds of winning the nomination will increase substantially. Otherwise, he will crash and the campaign will shift back into Romney's favor. In such a case, Santorum's surge will have actually helped Romney, because the Anti-Romney vote will become even more split than before.

Mitt Romney Wins Nevada Caucus

Just a few days after his crucial victory in Florida, Mitt Romney won another landslide, in the Nevada Caucus. Although Romney won an overwhelming victory, less attention will be paid to it, largely due to Nevada's unusually high Mormon population. In our analysis of why early states have such influence, we noted that less weight is given to a victory if the winner has a unique advantage in the state. If the Mormon vote weren't a factor, Romney would be given much more credit for his big win in Nevada. Even so, one should remember that Nevada is not the only state where the Mormon vote could play a role. Western states like Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming will also be affected to some degree. This is especially important because some of those states might otherwise be receptive to a "Tea Party" candidate.

Nevada Caucus (70% reporting)
Romney -- 48%
Gingrich -- 23%
Paul -- 19%
Santorum -- 11%

Though votes are still coming in, it appears Romney replicated his 2008 performance, when he won half the vote. Given the fact that he won so big last time around, it would be difficult for him to improve by too much; winning half the vote in a four-way race is pretty close to the maximum. Once again, Romney won more than Gingrich and Santorum combined.

Nevada was Ron Paul's best state in 2008 as well; he had placed second. If anyone believed Paul had a chance of taking a state, Nevada would be it. As Paul is considered by most to be a fringe candidate, he got nowhere.

Importantly, Rick Santorum failed to beat Newt Gingrich or even come close. As long as he continues putting in numbers like this, Santorum will never be able to break out of the second (or third) tier of candidates. February will be Santorum's last opportunity to turn things around. If Santorum beats Gingrich or comes close in one of the contests, he would get a lot of favorable publicity and the dynamic of the race will shift. It's likely that many of the Gingrich supporters are willing--perhaps even eager--to try their luck with Santorum as the chief Anti-Romney. One good performance would be enough to shift the narrative. Santorum looks far behind Gingrich today, but Gingrich has suffered catastrophic collapses before.

For some time now, Elephant Watcher has viewed Santorum as a more natural Anti-Romney than Gingrich, because he can more convincingly make the argument that he is more conservative--and he may be perceived as more electable. Santorum didn't get a ticket into the race in Nevada, but there are still a few February contests where he has an opening.

Who Won the Republican Debate on January 23rd?

In tonight's debate, Newt Gingrich failed to live up to the high expectations that have been set by his previous debate performances. Mitt Romney, who had been on the defensive in the last few debates, shifted to offense. Romney did a good job attacking Gingrich, and managed to look tough without looking nasty. Gingrich defended himself fairly well at first, but he showed vulnerability as time went on--near the end of his extended one-on-one exchange with Romney, Gingrich was (uncharacteristically) at a loss for words for a moment.

But the debate was not a clear-cut victory for Romney. His central line of attack against Gingrich was Gingrich's lobbying and taking money from Freddie Mac. Romney would have done better to directly attack either Gingrich's lack of conservatism or lack of electability. The lobbying charge would presumably be aimed at Gingrich's electability, but is not as direct as, for example, Romney's earlier attacks that Gingrich is "zany" and undisciplined.

Romney showed discipline when attacking Gingrich, but made a gaffe on the subject of illegal immigration. When asked how illegals would be forced to return home if they were not "rounded up," Romney explained that illegals would do "self-deportation." Romney went on to describe that if employers didn't hire illegals, illegals would not be able to find work and would return home to begin the process of legal immigration.

Ironically, when Rick Santorum was asked whether "self-deportation" was feasible, he immediately said that it was and that it was already happening, with many illegals returning to Mexico due to the bad economy. Regardless, Romney's use of the phrase "self-deportation" makes an easy sound-bite and could hurt him by making him appear soft on illegal immigration. Romney may have been attempting to curry favor with the Cuban vote in Florida, but a gaffe is a gaffe.

Fortunately for Romney, he dealt with the tax return issue quickly, was not challenged on Bain Capital, and largely was not attacked for Romneycare or flip-flopping.

Gingrich did not get the opportunity to have a stand-out moment in the debate. The debate moderators never gave him a chance to attack them for being too liberal.

Santorum was mostly out of the debate, since the action focused on Romney and Gingrich. Interestingly, Santorum chose not to go on the offensive against either Romney or Gingrich until his closing remarks. Meanwhile, Ron Paul was irrelevant and received little attention.

Gingrich Wins South Carolina Primary

Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina Primary on Saturday. Gingrich won 40% of the vote; Mitt Romney came in second with 28%. Rick Santorum, who was contending with Gingrich for the title of chief Anti-Romney, placed a distant third. Though Gingrich's win in South Carolina was anticipated by Elephant Watcher, Gingrich's late momentum took the media by surprise, adding to its effect. Until midweek, most political observers assumed Romney would simply win everything and enjoy a coronation instead of a real contest. Just as the media overreacted to Romney's New Hampshire win and his favorable early polls in South Carolina, the media will also overreact to Gingrich's win in South Carolina. However, there were two important developments that can be seen in South Carolina's results:

South Carolina Primary (99% reporting)
Gingrich -- 40%
Romney -- 28%
Santorum -- 17%
Paul -- 13%

The most important result was that Gingrich soundly beat Santorum. Given that Gingrich has already been ahead of Santorum in the Florida polls, Gingrich will credibly claim the mantle of the chief Anti-Romney. Santorum's support will melt away. Santorum's tie for first in Iowa (where he won a handful more votes than Romney in the recount) is irrelevant; Santorum really needed a big win there and what he did get wasn't enough to build momentum.

In consequence, the primary becomes a two-man race between Romney and Gingrich. But the odds are far from even: For Gingrich to get any further, he needs to make up a lot of ground and either win or place a very close second in Florida. Unlike South Carolina and New Hampshire, Florida is seen as neutral territory. With the Anti-Romney vote united behind one candidate, Gingrich has no excuse for losing Florida. If Romney beats him there, Romney is expected to also win Nevada, Michigan, and perhaps Arizona, which are the next major contests. The media narrative will turn just as quickly against Gingrich as it did in its favor here, and all will declare that "Gingrich only wins in the South."

The other important development in South Carolina is how much Romney improved on his 2008 performance in the state, when he placed fourth with only 15% of the vote. Romney probably won't get much credit for this, since only a week ago the media were expecting Romney to win South Carolina.

But the vital comparison going forward is not how Romney finished compared to early South Carolina polls. The reason why the 2008 comparison is more useful is that Romney came so close to winning the nomination that year: Romney came in second in Iowa, second in New Hampshire (by 5 points), won Nevada, and placed second in Florida (by 5 points). Improving by a half-dozen points--he improved by twice that in South Carolina--would mean victory.

If Gingrich is to become the frontrunner in this race, he must not merely beat Romney in one of Romney's weakest states; Gingrich needs to prove he can beat Romney in the rest of the country. Florida may be his last opportunity.

Who Won the Republican Debate on January 19th?

Tonight's debate was unlike any of the previous ones. As the night wore on, it increasingly resembled kind of a political version of a war crimes tribunal: Rick Santorum was the chief prosecutor, and the other three candidates were in the dock. Santorum repeatedly challenged the conservative credentials of his foes, particularly Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich. They then defended themselves, but they didn't bother to counter-attack Santorum on his own credentials. As a result, Santorum was always on the offensive, which is a good thing in a debate, because the burden remains on the defender. At best, the defenders didn't get scored against; at worst, they lost points.

Clearly, Santorum was in the spotlight, and had opportunities to display his confidence and rhetorical skill. On some issues, Gingrich and Romney defended themselves well: Romney was particularly effective in defending his pro-life record as governor. On other issues, Santorum may have scored points. Romney vigorously defended himself against the attacks on Romneycare--this time one of his opponents had done research on it--but he may have lost points. Gingrich did not defend his own support of the individual mandate very well.

But the central issue facing Santorum is that his numbers have been in free fall. Voters seeking an alternative to Romney have seen Gingrich well ahead of Santorum in the polls, and they have been defecting from Santorum in large numbers. Can a strong debate performance by Santorum reverse that? It's too late. The only question is to what extent Santorum can staunch the bleeding. He may be aided by the Gingrich ex-wife scandal, but its effect cannot yet be measured.

In fact, the debate moderator decided to open the debate by asking Gingrich about the allegations made by his second ex-wife that Gingrich had asked her for an open marriage. Gingrich was in top form as he denounced CNN for opening a presidential debate in such a way. The crowd rose to its feet and gave him a standing ovation as he vented long-felt frustrations that conservatives have about the liberal media. Gingrich has frequently criticized moderators in past debates, and this one served as a perfect target.

...On the other hand, one can't help but remember how the debate audience also cheered Herman Cain when he denied his own sex scandal during a debate. They applauded Cain, and a few weeks later they completely abandoned him.

Otherwise, Gingrich was fairly unremarkable. Aside from his standout moment at the beginning of the debate, it was probably one of his weaker performances.

Romney's performance was mixed. Frequently, Romney was strong, and he served red meat to the base in defending capitalism and free enterprise. He easily waved aside questions about Bain Capital, and his opponents saw fit to the let the matter rest. Romney was weaker when asked about releasing his tax returns. At first, it seemed that Romney would get a pass: Of the four candidates on stage, only Gingrich had released his returns. Ron Paul and Santorum expressed no plans to release theirs, and Romney said he would release his in April. But when the moderator asked Romney if he would follow in his father's footsteps by releasing many years' worth of returns, Romney was taken by surprise, answering, "Maybe." He was evasive, and the moment may ruin an otherwise solid night for him, as it presents an interesting sound-bite for the media to replay.

Romney Wins New Hampshire; Rivals Split Vote

Mitt Romney won the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday, a result which should come as no surprise. With 81% reporting, Romney won with 38%. Ron Paul came second, losing by about 15 points. Romney's margin of victory, though large, was less than many polls had suggested it could have been. The more important story is how Romney's main rivals for the nomination--Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum--will be weakened by the result. The following is the result, as of this posting, and an analysis of how the result will influence the race going forward:

New Hampshire Primary (81% reporting)
Romney -- 38%
Paul -- 23%
Huntsman -- 17%
Gingrich -- 10%
Santorum -- 10%
Perry -- 1%

Yesterday, Elephant Watcher predicted that if Romney finished in the 30s, it would be treated as an underwhelming victory, particularly if second-place was not far behind. After all, winning by 15 points is not a great performance when so many polls had indicated a win by 20 points or more. Some pundits will claim the result shows weakness on Romney's part, offering some version of "This is one of Romney's best states, he's been campaigning here all year (or for the past five years) and only beat his 2008 performance by a handful of points. Romney can't close the deal. He is a weak frontrunner. The voters want this thing to continue." Other pundits will also remark on Jon Huntsman's third-place finish, speculating on whether he can be yet another candidate to surge.

Although it's true that Romney would have preferred a bigger margin of victory, it's important to view the race in its proper context: Romney isn't running against himself or his poll numbers; he's running against Gingrich and Santorum.

From that perspective, Romney had a very good result. Romney's biggest fear is that either Gingrich or Santorum will beat the other convincingly, become the chief Anti-Romney, and coalesce all of the Anti-Romney vote. Therefore, Romney's best scenario was for Gingrich and Santorum to finish well behind himself, and as close to each other as possible. Gingrich and Santorum would then continue to split the Anti-Romney vote. New Hampshire voters gave Romney his wish: Gingrich and Santorum virtually tied at 10% each, an embarrassing and ambiguous finish.

What about Paul and Huntsman? Neither man has a chance of winning the nomination. Paul is viewed by most Republicans as a "kook." Huntsman, who finished barely high enough to justify remaining in the race, entered the race by making the unspeakably poor decision of running to the left of Romney. He will be unable to play an Anti-Romney role, because the Anti-Romney vote is comprised of people who think Romney is too far to the left, not too far to the right. Thus, Paul and Huntsman served only to diminish Gingrich and Santorum more.

Now the race moves to South Carolina. The contests in Iowa and New Hampshire have done nothing to clarify the Anti-Romney situation. Rather than providing Romney with one strong opponent, he has two evenly-matched opponents who weaken each other. Romney's campaign has been professional and disciplined. More important, he continues to be lucky.

Who Won the Republican Debate on January 7th?

When answering the question of "who won tonight's debate?" this season, most of the time the answer has been mixed. This time, that's not the case. Mitt Romney overwhelmingly won the debate. It was perhaps the most one-sided debate so far, such that nearly every observer would agree that Romney was the winner.

It was expected that most of the candidates would spend their time attacking Romney. Although there were moments when most of the candidates were critical of Romney, they didn't devote much time to it. During the first half-hour in particular, the Anti-Romneys found themselves attacking each other instead. When Romney was criticized, he did not take the bait, but instead calmly made the case for why he should be president. It's clear that he was attempting to look presidential, and he succeeded in doing so more than the other candidates did.

No new attacks against Romney were laid out. There was some criticism of Romney's tenure at Bain Capital, which Romney dealt with even more effectively than in previous debates where the issue was raised. Romney listed specific companies that Bain helped start, and listed statistics of tens of thousands of jobs created by those companies. Romney also scored big against the debate moderator, George Stephanopoulos, who pressed Romney on whether states have the right to ban contraception. Romney found himself laughing at the absurdity of the question, since no state wants to ban contraception. It would be an understatement to say the audience was in Romney's corner. Stephanopoulos embarrassed himself.

The most contentious moments of the debate took place when Ron Paul got into extended fights with Rick Santorum (accusing Santorum of too much spending and taking money from lobbyists) and Newt Gingrich (accusing Gingrich of being a "chickenhawk" for not serving in the military). It was very evident that Gingrich and Paul do not like each other.

There were some odd moments. Rick Perry, falling back into the pattern of making at least one gaffe per night, said that if America did not return to Iraq, Iran would go back into Iraq "literally at the speed of light." Paul claimed that after communists in China murdered 100 million of their own people, America broke the ice with them by playing ping-pong. And in the middle of one response, Jon Huntsman randomly spoke in Chinese for no apparent reason.

Tonight was Rick Santorum's first opportunity to play a starring role in a debate. He gave a vanilla performance: Not bad, but not especially good. It was to his detriment that he was put on the defensive by Paul, as opposed to putting Romney on the defensive. If the other candidates were supposed to provide New Hampshire a reason not to hand the state to Romney, they did not provide it. Instead, they gave New Hampshire an excuse to deliver Romney a landslide.

Romney Wins Iowa Caucus, in Virtual Tie with Santorum

Mitt Romney won the Iowa Caucus on Tuesday, beating out Rick Santorum by a ludicrously narrow margin of 8 votes. Aside from Jon Huntsman, Santorum was the only candidate who never finished first in an Iowa poll. His late rise came at the last possible moment to give him a win--almost. At the final tally, Romney won 30,015 votes to Santorum's 30,007. The following are the vote percentages for each candidate:

Iowa Caucus Results
Romney -- 24.6%
Santorum -- 24.5%
Paul -- 21%
Gingrich -- 13%
Perry -- 10%
Bachmann -- 5%
Huntsman -- 1%

As Elephant Watcher predicted on Monday, Santorum's late momentum gave him the edge needed to outperform his polling and (almost) take first. For the past few weeks, Santorum had the distinction of being one of only three candidates in the race whom Elephant Watcher gave a greater than zero percent chance of winning the nomination. On Tuesday, he demonstrated why. From the start of the race, Santorum was nowhere in the polls--even in Iowa--and was written off by nearly everyone. However, the destruction of one Tea Party candidate after another left Santorum the most natural candidate for the role.

As explained in Monday's preview of Iowa, both Santorum and Romney will claim victory. Romney's campaign will say that he achieved a win in a fundamentally "anti-Romney" state and predict a win for Romney in New Hampshire. Santorum's near-tie will enable him to finally raise his profile elsewhere. Though he's hardly set foot outside of Iowa, he will be able to make the case that all of the anti-Romney voters should rally behind him. Elephant Watcher expects Santorum's numbers to rise nationally and in all of the early states.

The other winner of the night was the state of Iowa, which avoided disaster by not giving Ron Paul (or Michele Bachmann) a win. Back in June, we observed that the history of the Iowa Caucus shows the state is unfairly maligned as a breeding ground for "wildcard" candidates, and that the state's voters actually place a premium on traditional, electable candidates. Tonight's result, particularly with Romney getting first place, is another demonstration of that. Now perhaps the pundits will spare a few kind words about the sober-minded, moderate Iowa voters. However, the anti-Iowa sentiment will return in election cycles to come.

The big loser of the night is Newt Gingrich, who failed to outperform his declining poll numbers. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann should also be disappointed, as they failed to catch up to Gingrich. New Hampshire's primary will take place next week, and Romney's remaining rivals can spend that time attacking Romney if they like, but afterward they will all need to battle Santorum in South Carolina for the title of chief Anti-Romney.

How did we get here, with Santorum coming from behind to (almost) squeak out a win? It was the first step of Santorum's "winning scenario," charted by Elephant Watcher, along with the rest of the candidates' winning scenarios, back in April:

Scenario: "The 7-10 Split"
Santorum raises his profile among social conservatives in Iowa by focusing on a controversial issue where few dare to tread. Few see Santorum as a threat. As time passes, it becomes increasingly clear that Iowa is hopelessly split among several different candidates. Despite a low vote total in absolute terms, Santorum pulls off an upset in Iowa. Somewhat befuddled, social conservatives and the Tea Party wing see little choice but to rally behind him after a "RINO" wins New Hampshire.

Now comes the real test for Santorum--whether the Tea Party is, in fact, willing to overlook the non-conservative aspects of Santorum's political past. If his conservative credentials are too tarnished by attacks against him, then Romney's electability (along with campaign infrastructure, establishment support, etc.) will easily trump him. In the meantime, Santorum will need to explain to conservative voters who have never heard of him why they should abandon the other Anti-Romneys and support him.

Tomorrow: The Iowa Caucus

On Tuesday, the voting finally begins. The political landscape in Iowa has been very fluid this season. If one includes non-runner Mike Huckabee, seven different candidates have led in the polls at various times: Huckabee, Romney, Bachmann, Perry, Cain, Gingrich, and Paul. And Santorum has come close. It's the complete opposite of New Hampshire, where Mitt Romney has led in every single poll conducted. With one day to go, Iowa is still fluid: Three candidates are in a near-tie in the final polling:

Iowa Caucus
01/01 PPP (D) -- Paul 20, Romney 19, Santorum 18, Gingrich 14
01/01 Insider Adv -- Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 18, Gingrich 16
12/30 Des Moines Reg -- Romney 24, Paul 22, Santorum 15, Gingrich 12
12/29 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 24, Santorum 17, Paul 14, Gingrich 13
12/28 NBC/Marist -- Romney 23, Paul 21, Santorum 15, Perry 14
12/28 ARG -- Romney 22, Gingrich 17, Paul 17, Santorum 11
12/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 23, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 13
12/28 Insider Adv -- Romney 17, Paul 17, Gingrich 17, Santorum 13
12/27 CNN/Time -- Romney 25, Paul 22, Santorum 16, Gingrich 14
12/27 PPP (D) -- Paul 24, Romney 20, Gingrich 13, Bachmann 11

It's impossible to say for certain who the winner will be. Romney has a very slight lead in most of the polls, has organization, and has the best electability argument. Ron Paul is close behind, and his supporters are intense. Rick Santorum is in third, but has the late momentum and is the most likely to benefit from the coalescing of low-polling Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann. Despite trailing by a few points, Santorum may actually have the edge.

Taking first in Iowa would be a boost for any of the three leading candidates. The size of the boost usually depends on whether the candidate exceeded expectations, and the size of the margin of victory. In this case, no one knows which candidate will win. The only expectation is that it will be close.

In one sense, Santorum is likely to benefit even if he doesn't take first place: He's ahead of other Anti-Romneys like Gingrich, Perry, and Bachmann. He'll have an argument to stay in the race. Ron Paul is going to stay in the race no matter what, and a victory for him would only serve to de-legitimize the Iowa Caucus.

Romney's team will have the most flexible spin on the results. Romney carefully avoided expending too many resources in Iowa, because he wanted to keep expectations low. But he also spent enough to make it possible to win. Obviously a win in Iowa would be an enormous boost to the idea that Romney is the frontrunner. A second-place finish, especially if it's close, would also be taken as a win. If Santorum wins, Romney's campaign would argue something to the effect of, "Iowa is an Evangelical state, and the Evangelical candidate only barely beat Romney." If Paul wins, Romney's campaign would argue that Romney was the highest-ranking sane candidate, and that Iowans should be disregarded. A third place finish behind both Santorum and Paul would be disappointing, but if Paul is close to winning, that fact would be used to attack Iowa's credibility.

Among the lower-tier, it will also be competitive: Bachmann wants to beat Perry to claim her status as the chief Tea Partier. Perry wants to avoid that, and would like to beat Gingrich to claim his status as the chief Southerner to compete in South Carolina.