2012 Republican Primary in Review: February 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December, January.

In February 2012, Newt Gingrich's campaign suffered total collapse in the wake of Mitt Romney's wins in Florida and Nevada. Rick Santorum pulled a surprise comeback and flipped everything on its head, securing his position as the chief Anti-Romney and transforming the presidential primary into a two-man race.

After winning the Florida Primary at the end of January, Romney's campaign appeared unstoppable. But although Republican voters dismissed Gingrich, they were not at ease with Romney. On February 1st, Romney made a gaffe during a televised interview in which he suggested he was not very concerned about the poor. This remark, though taken out of context, fit into a preexisting narrative of Romney being rich and out of touch.

As a result, concerns about Romney's electability simmered under the surface. This wasn't apparent in Nevada, which voted on February 4th: Romney won a huge victory over Gingrich. Meanwhile, Santorum had been campaigning in the February 7th states, which the other candidates skipped because no pledged delegates were to be awarded there. The absence of the other candidates, combined with Gingrich's defeats and ineligibility for the Missouri ballot, Romney's gaffe, and Santorum's status as the last Anti-Romney, all combined to create a perfect storm. Santorum won the three states voting on February 7th--Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri.

At last, Santorum got to experience the surge that all of the other Anti-Romney candidates had enjoyed. Though the states he won awarded no delegates, Santorum finally got the media attention he had previously been denied. Santorum rose in all of the polls. Voters were unfamiliar with Santorum, viewing him as essentially a generic Republican. But as with previous surges, they gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he had no weaknesses. Santorum jumped to the top of the polls, and showed particular strength in his home region of the Midwest.

Romney's campaign once again was in crisis. On February 11th, Romney barely edged out Ron Paul to win the Maine Caucus. Paul had spent a lot of time there; Romney only devoted some last-minute resources there in the hope of drawing attention away from his defeats on February 7th. All eyes were on Michigan, set to vote at the end of the month. Despite being the state of Romney's birth, Santorum dominated the polls there.

Romney understood that he had to reveal Santorum's vulnerabilities to the voters if he had any chance of coming back to win Michigan. However, Romney had taken a lot of flak in some circles for being "too negative" against Gingrich earlier in the campaign. Rather than attack Santorum's electability, Romney decided to attack Santorum's conservative credentials while bolstering his own. Romney and Santorum committed all of their resources to the battle in Michigan. Arizona was left uncontested, and Gingrich retired to the South.

On February 22nd, the only debate of the month was held. Romney and Paul attacked Santorum's conservative credentials. Santorum did not wilt under pressure, but he couldn't escape the attacks, either. In the media, some information about the extreme nature of Santorum's social views began to filter out, but only slowly. Thus far, Romney and the Republican establishment chose not to address the issue. Still, the attacks against Santorum's conservatism gave voters new information, and Romney closed the gap. In desperation, Santorum attempted to promote the Democrats' plan to sabotage the Michigan Primary with votes for Santorum.

On February 28th, Romney won Arizona by 20 points. Though Democrats voting for Santorum cut Romney's margin of victory in Michigan by about half, Romney still managed to win there by 3 points. Romney and the Republican establishment breathed a sigh of relief. But the Super Tuesday states, including Ohio and a number of Southern states where Santorum still held a lead, loomed ahead.

Romney ended the month clearly in the lead position. But Santorum remained largely unvetted and still strong in the polls. In some quarters, Republicans who had not been pro-Romney began to express a desire to see the primary come to a close. The idea increased in popularity that an extended primary fight would only help Barack Obama; the Democrats' attempt to swing the Michigan Primary to Santorum added to that perception. Fear of a contested convention also rose--Romney's opponents might not be able to win a majority of the delegates, but they could prevent Romney from getting one.

Romney Wins Arizona and Michigan

Mitt Romney had an outstanding night on Tuesday, winning the primaries in both Arizona and Michigan. In Arizona, Romney was expected to win; his competitors essentially ceded the state to him and didn't compete there. Romney won Arizona by a wide margin, 22 points. Though less attention was paid to Arizona given Romney's inevitable win, it's a valuable state in delegate math: Arizona is one of the few winner-take-all states prior to April. The big story was Michigan, where Romney prevailed in his bitterly-fought contest with Rick Santorum. Santorum had nearly a double-digit lead in Michigan polls coming off his three-state sweep in early February, but Romney came back to defeat Santorum by 3 points.

The following are the current vote tallies:

Arizona Primary (64% reporting)
Romney -- 48%
Santorum -- 26%
Gingrich -- 16%
Paul -- 8%

Michigan Primary (89% reporting)
Romney -- 41%
Santorum -- 38%
Paul -- 12%
Gingrich -- 7%

What's the significance of Romney's wins in these two states? Strategically, Romney demonstrated that he was unassailable in his own region (the West) and able to take a state from Santorum's region (the Midwest). But Michigan is considered one of Romney's home states, so Santorum will argue that other Midwestern states--like Ohio--will be a different story.

Although Romney's home state advantage in Michigan is probably overstated (Romney is variously described as having Michigan, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, or Utah as his "home state"), it's true that Michigan was more favorable terrain than other Midwestern states will be. But a more important factor suggests that the campaign could get easier for Romney: Santorum is still, for the most part, unvetted. In particular, Santorum's electability has not been called into question--Romney's campaign focused instead on attacking Santorum's conservatism. And the media's scrutiny of Santorum will only increase. Thus far, Santorum has enjoyed the benefit of the doubt. Nationally speaking, Santorum will never have it this good again.

In terms of media perception, Romney will be portrayed as having achieved a comeback. Santorum's enduring strength will be called into question. It was important for Santorum to get the win, even if he will get a share of the delegates anyway. Perhaps that's why Santorum made the risky gamble of encouraging Democrats to vote for him in Michigan. In doing so, Santorum drew more attention to the effort among some Democrats to vote for Santorum in order to sabotage the Republican primary. The Democrats' scheme gave Santorum some extra votes, but it could backfire badly: It plants the seed in the minds of Republican voters that voting for Santorum will help Barack Obama. That hurts Santorum's electability argument, and by asking for Democrats' votes, Santorum hurt his own conservative credentials as well.

Going forward, Newt Gingrich's support in the South is the wildcard. If Santorum had won Michigan, it would have reinforced the idea that Santorum is the man who can beat Romney. That would have helped Santorum in the South, where he could persuade pro-Gingrich voters to stop splitting the vote and join the Santorum bandwagon. Now, Gingrich will be able to make the case that Santorum shouldn't be the chief Anti-Romney. Recall that after Gingrich's losses in Florida and Nevada, Santorum was able to flip the Anti-Romney vote in his favor. Will Gingrich be able to do the same? Probably not, but he may retain enough strength to win Georgia on Super Tuesday and eat into Santorum's support in other Southern states.

Arizona and Michigan Vote Tomorrow

Arizona and Michigan will hold their primaries tomorrow. These will be the first major contests since Rick Santorum won three states on February 7th and began his long-awaited surge in the polls. Arizona has largely been ignored by the media, as Mitt Romney is expected to win there easily. Michigan, on the other hand, has gotten a lot of attention. If Romney loses to Santorum, it will be viewed as a big loss; if he wins, it will be viewed as a comeback--until the contests on the following "Super Tuesday" overshadow everything. Either result is possible, as the polls in Michigan show an extremely close race. The following are the most recent polls conducted in Arizona and Michigan:

Arizona Primary
02/26 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 43, Santorum 27, Gingrich 21, Paul 10
02/26 PPP (D) -- Romney 43, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 11
02/24 ARG -- Romney 39, Santorum 35, Gingrich 11, Paul 9
02/23 Rasmussen -- Romney 42, Santorum 29, Gingrich 16, Paul 8

Judging by these numbers, Romney will indeed win Arizona as easily as had been expected. The Mormon vote is not quite as big a factor in Arizona as it was in Nevada, but Western states continue to be a Romney stronghold. It's a decent recovery for Romney after his loss in Colorado on February 7th. However, Newt Gingrich still has a healthy amount of support in these polls. Some number of Gingrich supporters should make a strategic defection to Santorum on voting day, so Romney's margin of victory may be smaller than the polls anticipate.

Michigan Primary
02/26 Rasmussen -- Romney 38, Santorum 36, Paul 11, Gingrich 10
02/26 PPP (D) -- Romney 39, Santorum 37, Paul 13, Gingrich 9
02/26 Mitchell -- Santorum 37, Romney 35, Gingrich 9, Paul 8
02/26 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 37, Santorum 33, Paul 18, Gingrich 13
02/26 ARG -- Santorum 36, Romney 35, Paul 15, Gingrich 8
02/23 Rasmussen -- Romney 40, Santorum 34, Paul 10, Gingrich 9
02/23 Mitchell -- Romney 36, Santorum 33, Paul 12, Gingrich 9
02/23 Baydoun -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Gingrich 9, Paul 9

Romney leads in all but two of the most recent Michigan polls. But his margins are -2, -1, +2, +2, and +4 in the February 26th polls. Moreover, according to the two polling firms that conducted surveys on both February 23rd and February 26th, Romney's margin shrank by 4 and 5 points. The defection of voters from Gingrich to Santorum, extra enthusiasm for Santorum, and a last-minute shift of momentum to Santorum are all possibilities. Thus, despite Romney's small edge in the polls, the race is simply too close to call. Whoever the winner is, the race will be very close.

There's good news to be found for both Santorum and Romney. First, for Santorum: He's secured his position as the chief Anti-Romney. Gingrich still has support, which means that further defections are possible. If Santorum beats Romney in Michigan, this should accelerate. Michigan was his first head-to-head battle against Romney, and despite Romney's money/infrastructure advantage, Santorum is extremely competitive or winning in Michigan. On top of that, Michigan is more pro-Romney than other Midwestern states. Winning there or coming close means Santorum should be favored throughout the Midwest--most importantly in Ohio.

Now the good news for Romney: Strategically, he is well-positioned. His numbers in Arizona and Michigan suggest he is competitive in the Midwest (Santorum's region), while Santorum is uncompetitive in the West and Northeast (Romney's regions). If Romney wins Michigan, Gingrich may get a boost in the South, having proven that Santorum is unable to beat Romney--just as Santorum got a boost after Gingrich failed to win in Florida. Going forward, Santorum is likely to become weaker, because thus far he has benefited from not being vetted. Santorum's electability weakness due to his extreme social conservatism will be more widely known in the future than it is now. If Santorum wins Michigan, there will be a greater incentive for this information to be made known by the media, Republican establishment, and Romney's campaign. A similar phenomenon took place after Gingrich won South Carolina.

Rick Santorum Declines on Intrade

About two weeks ago, Rick Santorum had risen to 18% on the Intrade market for the Republican nomination. It was the highest Santorum reached. Since then, he has lost almost two-thirds of that, dropping to 7%. Much of that decline occurred in the last several days. Intrade investors were not impressed by his performance at the February 22nd debate, and they smelled weakness in the latest polls coming out of Michigan and Arizona.

Intrade investors are now increasingly confident that Mitt Romney will win the nomination. Aside from a brief period of post-South Carolina panic, Romney has been trading at 70% or more for a long time; Santorum's decline has brought Romney back up to 79.7%.

Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are still well behind, trading at 3.2% and 3.1%, respectively. Those four men are the only candidates in the race, but there are now two more individuals getting a small piece of the Intrade action. Chris Christie and Jeb Bush are each trading in the single-digits. Christie is at 1%, and Bush is actually managing to pull in 2.7 percent--almost as high as Paul and Gingrich. Are Christie and Bush planning to get in the race? No. But their numbers reflect the possibility of a contested or brokered convention, a scenario in which none of the current candidates gets a majority of the delegates and a total meltdown ensues.

Meanwhile, the Intrade markets for state contests are much more favorable for Romney than they were two weeks ago. Romney is given a 95% chance of winning Arizona and a 76.7% chance of winning Michigan. Intrade investors were always skeptical of the earlier polls showing Santorum way up in Michigan, but he had gotten as high as 60% to win when the Santorum surge was cresting.

Ohio: Midwestern Rematch

In our preview of the upcoming Michigan Primary, we described Michigan as a somewhat neutral battleground for Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. After Michigan votes on February 28th, the next big contest will be held on March 6th. But March 6th is "Super Tuesday," the day when a total of ten different states will vote (AK, GA, ID, MA, ND, OH, OK, TN, VT, VA). The media will have difficulty covering and analyzing Super Tuesday because so many different states vote, and because the states are so different. Some of the states will be heavily biased toward a candidate (e.g. Newt Gingrich and Romney's home states, Georgia and Massachusetts). Others will have a significant bias, and others will have a slight bias. Which states are important to watch?

Most of the attention will focus on the state of Ohio. It's a populous state, and it's an important swing state in general elections. More significantly, Ohio is a Midwestern state, located in the battleground region for the 2012 Republican primary. The fight between Romney and Santorum will be decided in large part by what happens in the Midwest. The South is infertile territory for Romney, while the Northeast and West are less receptive to Santorum. The Midwest has a natural pro-Santorum bias, but isn't anti-Romney like the South, so both candidates will be contesting states in the Midwest.

Santorum's objective is to crush Gingrich in the South and crush Romney in the Midwest, hoping that big enough margins of victory in those two regions will be enough to put him over the top. Romney's objective is to sweep the Northeast and West while taking enough victories and delegates in the Midwest to accumulate a delegate majority. (Gingrich and Ron Paul currently have no path to victory.)

Arguably, Romney has the easier route: Santorum will be contested in the South by Gingrich and in the Midwest by Romney. Romney won't have as much competition in the Northeast or West. Those regions are also overrepresented in the "winner-take-all" portion of the primary season. In the Midwest, Santorum needs big wins, while Romney can afford some losses there. For Santorum, that's the bad news about having to fight on one's own turf. The good news is that a lot of the news coverage will be focused there, in a region where Santorum is on favorable ground. Meanwhile, Santorum really needs to hope that Gingrich drops out or evaporates in the South, because he can't afford to fight in two regions simultaneously.

Regardless of who wins Michigan, Ohio will be viewed as a rematch. Ohio should begin with a substantial bias in Santorum's favor--his home state of Pennsylvania is next door. Michigan was more of a neutral battleground because Romney could counter the regional bias with his own home state roots there. Polling currently suggests good news for Romney in Michigan, but even if he wins, he'll be starting out behind in Ohio.

While Ohio may have a natural affinity for Santorum, time is against him. The height of the Santorum surge--the "honeymoon" period during which voters assumed Santorum had no weaknesses--is past. Santorum has already lost quite a bit of ground since mid-February, but voters are still only just beginning to learn about Santorum's vulnerabilities. The Republican debate on February 22nd was a preview of the attacks against Santorum's conservative record. As we explained in our discussion of electability and conservatism, attacks against Santorum's electability will be more potent than those against his conservatism. Electability attacks have not yet begun.

Romney's campaign has chosen not to focus on electability, instead undermining Santorum's conservative credentials. If Santorum wins Michigan, or if it's too close for comfort, that is likely to change. Romney would become desperate, and things will get uglier. However, the media environment will become more toxic for Santorum over time, regardless of how well he does in Michigan. The same phenomenon occurred after Gingrich won South Carolina; liberal media and the Republican establishment united to make devastating attacks against Gingrich from which he never recovered. Santorum can expect to face a similar challenge leading up to Ohio and beyond.

Romney vs. Santorum, Part 3

In parts 1 and 2, we demonstrated the way in which Republican primary voters tend to weigh electability and conservatism to determine their vote between two candidates. How will this play out in the voters' decision between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum? It will probably be similar to the dynamics exhibited in the Romney/Perry and Romney/Gingrich duels. In other words, it will be some variation of Santorum being the more conservative candidate and Romney being the more electable one.

As with Rick Perry and Newt Gingrich, when Santorum first got a lot of attention in February, voters gave him the benefit of the doubt and assumed he had no weaknesses. Santorum surged and defeated Romney in Minnesota, Missouri, and Colorado. His numbers rose nationally, and Santorum began out-polling Romney in Michigan by a large margin. Here's how the voters saw things:

Romney vs. Santorum
Romney and Santorum are equally electable.
Santorum is much more conservative than Romney.
Result: Santorum wins.

The voters' views of both attributes should be unsurprising. While Romney was known as a "Massachusetts moderate" and "flip-flopper," Santorum's conservatism had not been vetted. On the electability measure, Santorum again benefited from a lack of vetting, while Romney had also just come off a damaging gaffe in which he suggested he didn't care about the poor. Romney's electability took a hit for the second time this season (the other being when voters worried he had something to hide in his tax returns). If anything, some voters probably thought Santorum was more electable than Romney.

But, as with other surging candidates, Santorum's rise has prompted more media scrutiny. Romney's attack machine has directed its fire toward Santorum, rightly assuming Gingrich is no longer a real threat. In Michigan, Romney's attack ads have primarily been directed at making voters question Santorum's conservatism.

Will voters buy the idea that Romney is more conservative than Santorum? No. But it's not necessary: Romney only needs to close the gap. Even before Perry's debate gaffes made voters view him as unelectable, Perry was hurt when his conservatism was questioned. Making him appear only somewhat more conservative than Romney did a lot of damage, because it undermined the whole point of the Perry candidacy, which was to be very conservative.

As with Perry, attacks against Santorum's conservatism will be effective, because voters are unaware of Santorum's weaknesses on that attribute. At the debate on February 22nd, Santorum's imperfections were exploited. But at the end of the day, voters will still view Santorum as being at least somewhat more conservative than Romney. Santorum simply appears more genuine.

The battle between Romney and Santorum will come down to electability. Having closed the gap on conservatism, voters will prefer Romney if they believe he is more electable than Santorum. Perry's drop in perceived electability occurred when he self-destructed in the debates. Romney's attacks against Gingrich, in which he painted Gingrich as a flake with ethics problems, were also devastating.

But Romney has not yet rolled out similar attacks against Santorum's electability. Instead, the only electability issues raised against Santorum thus far have come from the media, which have highlighted Santorum's extreme social views, such as opposition to contraception. It's a tricky matter, because Romney does not want to attack Santorum from the left. When Gingrich and Perry attacked Romney from the left by criticizing Bain Capital, it backfired. Still, Romney is currently relying on the media to do some of the work for him. It's never a good idea for a candidate to rely too much on the media.

Prior to the February 22nd debate, Romney and Santorum were roughly tied in Michigan polls. Here's where they stood before the debate:

Romney vs. Santorum
Romney is marginally more electable than Santorum.
Santorum is somewhat more conservative than Romney.
Result: Inconclusive.

If Romney is able to drag Santorum's perceived conservatism down close to his own level (he'll never drag him all the way down) then Romney will have a slight edge. If Santorum's electability comes into question--particularly if he seems too extreme on religious/social issues--then Romney will have a big advantage.

Michigan: Santorum's Florida?

It's still nearly two weeks until the next major contests in the Republican presidential primary: Michigan and Arizona will vote on February 28th. Less attention has been paid to Arizona, which is considered an easier state for Mitt Romney to win; the other candidates aren't devoting many resources to that state. Instead, the focus has been on Michigan, a state which Rick Santorum intends to win. Romney, too, desperately wants to win Michigan. The contest will be important because it will be the first time that Romney and Santorum have directly vied for a state since Santorum's wins on February 7th.

Michigan's importance is even greater if one considers it to be a neutral battleground between the two candidates, much the same way that Florida was a neutral battleground for Romney and Newt Gingrich back in January. There's a difference, however. Florida did not lean toward one candidate or another. Michigan, on the other hand, does lean toward Romney--but it also leans toward Santorum. Romney won Michigan in 2008, it's a left-leaning state, and Romney has ties there (Romney was born in Michigan, and his father was a popular governor there in years past).

Meanwhile, it's a Midwestern state, so it may naturally favor Santorum, who has shown strength in the region. Also, the pro-Romney bent of the state may be diminished by Romney's outspoken opposition to the "auto bailout" of General Motors and Chrysler. Santorum also opposed the bailout, but that fact is less known.

Arguably, the state's biases cancel each other out, leaving both Romney and Santorum a real chance to win. Here are the latest polls:

Michigan Primary
02/14 Mitchell -- Santorum 34, Romney 25, Paul 11, Gingrich 5
02/13 Rasmussen -- Santorum 35, Romney 32, Paul 13, Gingrich 11
02/12 ARG -- Santorum 33, Romney 27, Gingrich 21, Paul 12
02/12 PPP (D) -- Santorum 39, Romney 24, Paul 12, Gingrich 11

One thing is clear: Santorum is currently in the lead. As expected, his surge--based in large part on his status as the only candidate who hasn't been vetted yet--has boosted his numbers beyond Romney for the time being. The extent of Santorum's lead varies wildly: PPP has him up by 15, while Rasmussen gives him a lead of 3 points. Gingrich's numbers are also all over the board, ranging from 5 to 21 points.

The difference may be due to the fact that it's difficult for pollsters to set up the infrastructure to poll just one state. They had less time to do it, since the importance of Michigan wasn't apparent from the beginning of the presidential race--unlike New Hampshire or Florida, which were clearly going to make news.

The stakes are high. Romney and Santorum are both under extreme pressure to win Michigan. There is one debate scheduled prior to the contest, on February 22nd. As with Gingrich's surge following South Carolina, the burden is on Romney to use his resources to vet his opponent and change the trajectory of the race. If Romney fails to derail Santorum, Santorum's odds of winning the nomination will increase considerably.

Santorum Rises on Intrade; Romney Still Dominates

When we last examined the Intrade market for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney was poised to win Florida. He was near 90% on Intrade, and his nearest rival was in the low single-digits. Since then, Romney won Florida and Nevada by huge margins--but was derailed by Rick Santorum's three-state win on February 7th.

Romney still dominates the Intrade market, standing at 73.5%, nearly triple the rest of his competitors combined. But Santorum has risen to 16%. Prior to his win last Tuesday, Santorum was trading at less than 2%. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are trading at 3% and 2.3%, respectively. Once it became clear Gingrich was going to lose Florida, he cratered. He continues to be mired in the low single-digits. The question is, how high will Santorum go?

The Intrade markets on individual states reveal a fog of confusion about the future of the race. Intrade's investors are unsure of whether Santorum will be able to pull out more wins in the Midwest--wins he'll absolutely need if Romney is to be stopped.

Of the three contests taking place prior to Super Tuesday (Arizona, Michigan, and Washington), Intrade is confident Romney will win Arizona (80%) and Washington (65%). But in the all-important state of Michigan, the market is split: Santorum is at 55% and Romney is at 45%. This market has been going back and forth between the two competitors. The same is true of Super Tuesday's biggest state, Ohio, where Romney is trading at 50% and Santorum at 55% (these are sell orders, which is why they sometimes add to over 100%).

Lack of regular polling of Michigan and Ohio explains why Intrade is so cautious about taking a stand on those important states. Michigan is one of Romney's "home states," and Ohio is an expensive place to campaign, but Intrade gives Romney no edge. Tuesday's contests in Minnesota and Missouri showed Santorum strong and Romney weak in the Midwest. Intrade has adopted a wait-and-see approach.