Romney still dominates the Intrade market, standing at 73.5%, nearly triple the rest of his competitors combined. But Santorum has risen to 16%. Prior to his win last Tuesday, Santorum was trading at less than 2%. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are trading at 3% and 2.3%, respectively. Once it became clear Gingrich was going to lose Florida, he cratered. He continues to be mired in the low single-digits. The question is, how high will Santorum go?
The Intrade markets on individual states reveal a fog of confusion about the future of the race. Intrade's investors are unsure of whether Santorum will be able to pull out more wins in the Midwest--wins he'll absolutely need if Romney is to be stopped.
Of the three contests taking place prior to Super Tuesday (Arizona, Michigan, and Washington), Intrade is confident Romney will win Arizona (80%) and Washington (65%). But in the all-important state of Michigan, the market is split: Santorum is at 55% and Romney is at 45%. This market has been going back and forth between the two competitors. The same is true of Super Tuesday's biggest state, Ohio, where Romney is trading at 50% and Santorum at 55% (these are sell orders, which is why they sometimes add to over 100%).
Lack of regular polling of Michigan and Ohio explains why Intrade is so cautious about taking a stand on those important states. Michigan is one of Romney's "home states," and Ohio is an expensive place to campaign, but Intrade gives Romney no edge. Tuesday's contests in Minnesota and Missouri showed Santorum strong and Romney weak in the Midwest. Intrade has adopted a wait-and-see approach.
