Elephant Watcher Q&A, Part II

It's time for another round of Q&A with Elephant Watcher, to address some of the more commonly asked questions sent in by readers from around the world. For previous Q&A, see the following: Part I.

Q: Why isn't Gary Johnson (the former governor of New Mexico) included in the roster of candidates? He's in the race and has attended a primary debate.

In Part I, we addressed a similar set of questions about candidates like Allen West and Michele Bachmann (who was not yet in the race). The field of candidates is wide. Just as with the primary debates, the line has to be drawn somewhere. Candidates like Johnson or U.S. Congressman from Michigan Thaddeus McCotter do have more credentials than the "joke" perennial candidates who have never held office. If a candidate or potential candidate can have some impact on the race, Elephant Watcher is inclined to include him. Johnson attended the first debate, but it does not appear likely that he will be included in any future debates. Johnson is also rendered moot by the candidacy of fellow libertarian Ron Paul, who also has a 0% chance of winning the nomination but who has much higher poll numbers and will attend most of the debates.

The media pays no attention to Johnson because they do not believe his candidacy is viable. It may be unfair that Johnson will fade into obscurity, especially when the media's lack of attention to him makes that sort of a self-fulfilling prophecy. But Johnson did have ample opportunity to make his case at the May 5th primary debate, and he failed. By contrast, Herman Cain succeeded.

Q: How can Tim Pawlenty have a better chance of winning the nomination than someone like Mitt Romney or Michele Bachmann? His poll numbers are consistently bad.

While we are still in Phase Two of the primary, poll numbers are less useful in predicting the outcome of the race. Candidates with little charisma or name recognition are unable to gain in the polls because few people--even in early primary states--are paying any attention to the race. Even Mike Huckabee, with his considerable rhetorical skills, was polling at about 0% at this time in the last presidential primary.

Instead, it is more useful to look at candidates' attributes and where they fit into the field of candidates. For detailed information of this kind about each of the candidates, see the Profiles page. A candidate like Bachmann or Romney will benefit from high name recognition in the early polls, but name recognition means less as time goes by. Early primary voters will inspect each candidate to find one who is perceived as very conservative and very electable. Voters currently have serious questions about Romney's conservatism, and they do not believe Bachmann can win the presidency. Those candidates will need to fix those problems to boost their chances of winning the nomination.

Meanwhile, Pawlenty's biggest perceived weakness is that he is a boring speaker. Judging by the most recent winners of the Republican presidential nomination (John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George H.W. Bush), this is not as big an obstacle.

Who Will Win the South Carolina Primary in 2012?

In previous posts we examined the possible winners of the Iowa Caucus and the New Hampshire Primary. Today, we will look at the primary that has been won by the eventual Republican presidential nominee in every election since 1980: South Carolina.

South Carolina has a reputation for being receptive to conservative candidates, particularly socially conservative ones. Today, the struggle in the Republican Party is between those who align with the Tea Party movement, and those whom the Tea Party members label "RINOs." South Carolina would not seem like a great place to campaign if you're a moderate, establishment Republican. But as we saw in the history of both Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina frequently votes for such candidates.

The following is a list of the winners of the South Carolina Primary since it began in 1980. (Years with incumbent presidents have been excluded, since the incumbent president won each time almost automatically.)

South Carolina
1980 -- Ronald Reagan
1988 -- George Bush, Sr.
1996 -- Bob Dole
2000 -- George W. Bush
2008 -- John McCain

Unlike Iowa and New Hampshire, South Carolina is heavily influenced by who wins earlier contests. This means that it's not just South Carolina whose preferences matter, but also Iowa's and New Hampshire's. Winning one of the earlier contests will give a candidate a big boost, and failing to win either will diminish a candidate. It should be said that in 2008, McCain only barely defeated Huckabee. But Huckabee and McCain had both won a contest before South Carolina.

Where does that leave South Carolina? Early polling is even less help here. There have been few South Carolina polls so far; only one has been taken since Mike Huckabee left the race. None have been taken since Michele Bachmann entered the race. Even worse, no South Carolina poll can take into account the effect of the results of the Iowa Caucus and New Hampshire Primary.

Still, we can at least set forth some basic scenarios, as with did with the other early contests.

Scenario #1: United Party. A candidate emerges who can unite both the Tea Party and establishment wings of the Republican Party.

As before, this is the Chris Christie scenario. If he wins Iowa and either wins or does well in New Hampshire, he will easily go on to win South Carolina and the Republican nomination.

Scenario #2: Frontrunner Wins. Mitt Romney has the campaign infrastructure built up sufficiently to compete everywhere, and no one is able to knock him down.

If Romney wins Iowa and New Hampshire, he will win South Carolina. Though South Carolinians may not like him very much, it will be almost impossible for an anti-Romney candidate to lose Iowa and come back to win South Carolina.

Scenario #3: Electable Anti-Romney. A highly electable candidate who is perceived as being to the right of Romney wins Iowa, but doesn't do as well in New Hampshire.

If the winner of Iowa is perceived as being just as electable as Romney, but more conservative than him, then that candidate is likely to win South Carolina. Tim Pawlenty is the candidate most likely to fit this description (putting aside Christie, of the "United Party" scenario).

Scenario #4: Moderately Electable Anti-Romney. A candidate to the right of Romney wins Iowa, but there is some real doubt as to whether he will be able to defeat President Obama in the general election. Then Romney wins New Hampshire.

If Rick Perry enters the race, then this scenario is made for him. If it occurs, Perry will argue that he's the man with the true conservative credentials. Romney will argue that he's the more electable one. It will be an interesting test. Perry may be able to squeeze out a win, since South Carolina is more favorable turf for him. Then Romney will spin that he did "better than expected" in the Southern state.

Scenario #5: Unelectable Anti-Romney. A Tea Partier with little chance of winning the general election manages to win in Iowa, while Romney wins New Hampshire.

This would be Bachmann's or Herman Cain's scenario. Romney hopes that voters will put a high premium on electability. As history has shown, voters tend to do this. It's possible that an insurgent Tea Partier will win anyway, and again Romney will attempt to spin the results.

New Hampshire Poll Shows Mitt Romney's Competitor Is Chris Christie

From the beginning, Elephant Watcher has cautioned that early polls are problematic for a number of reasons. One of the biggest issues is that a poll's results can be skewed simply by a pollster's choice of which candidates to include. Whenever a pollster chooses to include an unusual set of candidates, particularly if Chris Christie is one of them, it's worth taking a closer look.

Public Policy Polling, a Democratic pollster, has released a new poll of New Hampshire. One might expect a Democratic pollster's results to lean left, such as that moderate candidates overperform. However, as we saw in our polling round-up a few days ago, PPP's polls tend to skew in favor of candidates like Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain. (Then again, a Democratic pollster might want to push candidates perceived to be unable to defeat President Obama in the general election.)

At any rate, PPP did a New Hampshire poll that included some candidates who either say they aren't running or are unlikely to run, including Jeb Bush, Paul Ryan, Rudy Giuliani, and Chris Christie. Here are the results:

New Hampshire
Mitt Romney 26
Chris Christie 20
Michele Bachmann 14
Rudy Giuliani 9
Jeb Bush 8
Sarah Palin 8
Tim Pawlenty 5
Paul Ryan 3

Although Christie has repeatedly said he's not running, though most pundits assume he won't, and although New Hampshire is widely considered a Romney stronghold, Christie trails by only 6 points. This demonstrates an impressive amount of latent support for Christie--and vulnerability for Romney. Were Christie to run, Romney would need to pour every resource he has into New Hampshire. This is another good reason why Romney shouldn't gamble too much on Iowa. If he loses New Hampshire, his campaign is over.

Another interesting finding from PPP's data is the level of support Christie receives from Tea Partiers. Christie is governor of New Jersey and has generally avoided alienating social moderates. The Republican establishment views him favorably. But, in fact, it is the Tea Party that supports him most. Of those who identify with the Tea Party movement, 81% view him favorably and 7% unfavorably. Even Michele Bachmann, the "Queen of the Tea Party," only posts comparable numbers: 86% favorable, 11% unfavorable. No other candidate comes close. Sarah Palin receives 70% to 19%. Romney gets 59% favorable, 34% unfavorable.

That data suggests that Christie's Tea Party opponents will be hard pressed to call him a "RINO" or a moderate. As Christie is so uniquely poised to gain support from both wings of the Party, he has the best position in the race. Elephant Watcher calculates that Christie currently has a 66% chance of winning the nomination.

Mitt Romney's Strategy: Play the Frontrunner

It's time once again for a review of a candidate's strategy. This time, we will consider how Mitt Romney is doing. Each candidate's optimal strategy is outlined on the Profiles page. For an analysis of each candidate's position based on that strategy, check the Rankings page.

We have discussed at length how Romney's Achilles heel is Romneycare, the state health care program he instituted in Massachusetts, and which he has refused to disavow. It might seem odd to focus on one policy--after all, every candidate has supported one policy or another that Republicans don't like. What makes Romneycare particularly damaging is that it is so similar to Obamacare, the very thing that most animated the Tea Party and Republican opposition to President Obama. However, Romney has so far managed to avoid being attacked for it. If Romney isn't careful, he may be lulled into a false sense of security--he's bound to have to face up to Romneycare eventually.

Romney's Profile indicates that his overall weakness is voter skepticism about whether he's really a conservative. By contrast, he has a high "perceived electability" rating. He has only a medium "rhetorical skill" rating, but Republicans generally don't mind a stiff candidate. In fact, every Republican presidential nominee for more than a quarter of a century has lacked rhetorical skill: John McCain, George W. Bush, Bob Dole, and George H.W. Bush all had fair-to-poor speaking ability.

At this point, it's unlikely that there is much Romney can do to enhance his level of perceived conservatism. He'll have to work on his answer for Romneycare, but otherwise, people either see him as a flip-flopping "RINO" or they don't. So what can Romney do? He can redirect the conversation, as much as possible, to his strengths. That's electability: his image as a credible, traditional candidate who knows about the economy.

So far, New Hampshire polls suggest that New Hampshirites are very receptive to Romney. The usual caveats about early polling apply, but his leads in New Hampshire polls have been enormous. They can't be written off as merely the byproduct of name recognition.

Iowa is a different story. We've reviewed the possible winners of Iowa. Some would be easy for Romney to defeat, others would be quite difficult. For now, Romney seems to understand the proper course to take: Assume the winner of the Iowa Caucus will have electability issues, and provide a contrast. Romney doesn't need to attack people like Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. The media and the Republican establishment will do that for him. Besides, the stronger they are, the more strategic voters will flock to a "safe" candidate like Romney. Romney has instead concentrated on showing that he is presidential.

There's some indication that Romney may begin the primary campaign by essentially pretending he's already in the general election, by attacking Obama on the economy. As long as the chief "Anti-Romney" candidate isn't someone who shares his high perceived electability, he may as well run against Obama. If the Anti-Romney is someone electable, however, intra-Party fighting will commence.

Who Will Win the New Hampshire Primary in 2012?

Previously, we took a look at the different scenarios of who might win the Iowa Caucus. There were quite a few different possibilities; the field is wide open. The contest in New Hampshire will be almost as important as the one in Iowa, but it has fewer players.

Listed roughly in order of their probability, the following are the basic New Hampshire scenarios, followed by a discussion of the implications:

Scenario #1: United Party. A new candidate enters the race who is able to unify and excite both the Tea Party and the Republican establishment.

Once again, this is the Chris Christie scenario. If Christie enters the race and wins Iowa, it's likely that he will take New Hampshire as well, or come close to it. This is a "game over" possibility: If it occurs, the 2012 Republican nomination becomes a coronation, and the race comes to a rapid conclusion.

Scenario #2: Romney Holds His Lead. Mitt Romney, who has maintained a significant lead in the New Hampshire polls, wins with relative ease.

There are a number of reasons why Romney might maintain his lead. It could be because an unelectable candidate wins Iowa, scaring people into making sure an electable candidate wins New Hampshire. Or it could be because New Hampshirites are unbothered by Romneycare and think he's a good candidate.

Scenario #3: Huntsman Takes Out Romney. Jon Huntsman, whose entire strategy is based around New Hampshire, manages to convince New Hampshirites that he makes a better establishment candidate than Romney.

If Huntsman aggressively pursues the presidency in 2012 (as opposed to some other job), he might be able to beat Romney. New Hampshire's voters may want someone new.

Scenario #4: Pawlenty's Dream. Tim Pawlenty becomes the last man standing, a true consensus candidate. After Pawlenty wins Iowa, Romney implodes, and Pawlenty either takes New Hampshire or does well there.

Given the level of Republicans' dissatisfaction with the candidates they know, this is a possibility. They don't really know Pawlenty yet, so they don't have much chance to dislike him. But they do believe he's electable and to the right of Romney.

What should immediately stand out is that each of these scenarios involves a candidate (Christie, Romney, Huntsman, or Pawlenty) winning New Hampshire who is classified as highly electable on his Profile. It's not that New Hampshire inherently prefers electable establishment candidates more than Iowa; history has shown us that it isn't the case. It simply turned out that way.

Since Republican primary voters place a premium on electability, it's likely that the New Hampshire winner will win the nomination--but only if the Iowa winner (assuming it's a different person) has questionable electability. New Hampshire-centric candidates should fear someone like Christie or Pawlenty winning Iowa, but should not be too frightened by Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. Rick Perry would present a more balanced matchup.

What Job Is Jon Huntsman Running For?

Huntsman

Jon Huntsman, Jr. entered the race to little fanfare last month. Though he is a favorite of the Washington establishment, few people took much notice of his campaign, and he made little effort to get notice. Huntsman deliberately timed his entry into the race after the June 13th debate, even though he had been preparing for the run in advance of it. Huntsman, unlike most other candidates, entered the race realizing how low his poll numbers were, and how difficult it would be to win the nomination. By contrast, candidates like Tim Pawlenty and Herman Cain made preparations for their campaigns before there was any good polling data. They took a leap of faith, not knowing how voters would respond to them--or even whom their opponents would be. Why would Huntsman get into the race if he knew in advance how slim his chances would be?

As Elephant Watcher observed when Huntsman made his announcement, it's possible that Huntsman feels there's a benefit to running even if he doesn't win. If, say, Mitt Romney wins the nomination and President Obama is reelected in 2012, there will be an opening for a Republican to run in 2016 with no incumbent opponent from either party. Since the Republican Party has a history of nominating the runner-up from the previous nomination contest (or at least someone who has run before), it could be to Huntsman's benefit in 2016 if he ran in 2012.

Another theory is that Jon Huntsman, with his considerable diplomatic and foreign policy experience, is actually running for the position of secretary of state. If one of his opponents wins the Republican nomination and defeats Obama, that new Republican president could appoint Huntsman as his secretary of state. The idea goes that by running for the nomination and failing, Huntsman still raises his visibility and gets many opportunities to advertise his diplomatic credentials.

The third theory is the most obvious one, that Huntsman intends to win the presidency in 2012. The odds may be against him, but he does have a path to victory: through Romney. If Huntsman can topple Romney in New Hampshire, he will replace Romney and have a shot at the nomination. Anyone who wins the Republican nomination, especially if he is highly electable, stands a good chance at winning the general election.

It may be possible to deduce from Huntsman's behavior which of the jobs he's after. Each of these theories requires a different scenario. Let's start by looking at the first scenario, where Huntsman intends to run for president in 2016. This requires Obama to win reelection. Thus, we would expect Huntsman to spend a lot less time attacking Obama. Normally a candidate spends a lot of time criticizing the incumbent of the other party, but in this scenario Huntsman actually wants Obama to win reelection. Huntsman may even want to spend more time attacking his Republican opponents, though he would want to avoid making permanent enemies.

If Huntsman wants to be secretary of state, he needs for Obama to lose. Thus, he may be more willing to attack Obama. He would be a lot less willing to attack the Republican whom he thinks will win the nomination; after all, that would be the person who wins the general election and appoints Huntsman secretary of state. The biggest hint of all would be if Huntsman spends a lot of his campaign talking about foreign policy. As we've observed numerous times, the 2012 election will be about the economy. Huntsman has a conservative economic record, so it's not as though he needs to avoid that topic in lieu of discussing foreign policy. But if Huntsman wants to be appointed secretary of state, it would make more sense for him to advertise his diplomatic and foreign policy credentials.

Finally, if Huntsman truly intends to win the presidency in 2012, he will need to attack Romney and Obama. He needs both of them to lose for himself to win. And he will focus more on economic policy, since that will be the issue voters look at when picking their president.

Michele Bachmann Surges in the Polls

Over half a month has past since Michele Bachmann entered the race at the June 13th primary debate. That's enough time for a lot of polls to be taken that reflect Bachmann's entry. Most of the polls are national primary polls, but there have been some state primary polls taken, as well. Bachmann has surged in the polls since the debate. It's worth taking a closer look to determine how well she's doing, and whether the polls accurately reflect her position in the race. First we'll look at national primary polls:

National Primary Polls
06/14 Rasmussen -- Romney 33, Bachmann 19, Cain 10, Gingrich 9
06/21 Zogby -- Bachmann 24, Cain 15, Romney 15, Paul 13
06/23 Marist -- Romney 19, Giuliani 13, Perry 13, Palin 11
06/28 Fox News -- Romney 18, Perry 13, Bachmann 11, Giuliani 10

Next, the most recent polls of early primaries:

Iowa
06/22 Des Moines Register -- Romney 23, Bachmann 22, Cain 10, Gingrich 7

New Hampshire
06/25 Suffolk/7News -- Romney 36, Bachmann 11, Paul 8, Giuliani 5
06/15 Magellan (R) -- Romney 42, Bachmann 10, Paul 10, Palin 7

Finally, random primary polls from later state contests. For some reason, Public Policy Polling (PPP) has been a busy bee:

Floria
06/19 PPP (D) -- Romney 27, Bachmann 17, Palin 17, Cain 10

New Mexico
06/26 PPP (D) -- Bachmann 22, Romney 22, Palin 14, Cain 10

Oregon
06/21 PPP (D) -- Romney 28, Bachmann 18, Palin 16, Paul 9

So what do all of these polls tell us? First, that Mitt Romney is leading in the early polls. Second, that PPP and Zogby polls seem to love Bachmann. Looking at the state polls, you would think Bachmann is in second place. But the national primary polls have a lot of variance, with potential candidates like Rick Perry and Rudy Giuliani mixing things up.

Earlier this year, we saw how problematic early national primary polls are. The same could be said for state polls of later contests, such as the ones PPP is aggressively polling. People simply aren't paying much attention to the race yet, and by the time they do, their opinions will be shaped by the results of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. That's why it's best to concentrate on polling data in those early states.

Of course, the 2012 primary is only in Phase Two, when even the voters of early primary states have not begun paying attention. Polls are heavily influenced by name recognition and can be warped by the decision of the pollster on which candidates to include. Note, for instance, that some of the polls include Sarah Palin and some do not. Some include Perry or Giuliani, while others don't. And none include Chris Christie. As a demonstration of the strange results, consider the Zogby and Marist national primary polls: Zogby has Bachmann in first place, while Marist doesn't even have her in the top four.

What we can tell is that Bachmann is in a stronger starting position than other well-known candidates, like Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul, and probably Sarah Palin and Rudy Giuliani. Romney is doing better, but depending upon the poll, isn't doing better by much.

Perhaps the most reasonable conclusion that can be drawn from all of these polls is that the race is wide open. Romney does not have a prohibitive lead, even against someone with Bachmann's weaknesses. And the polls including people like Perry, Palin, and Giuliani show that people aren't clear on who is running yet. All of this reinforces the idea that there is a vacuum in the field. One candidate has not arrived yet who can unite the Republican Party.

Is Chris Christie Running for President? Part II

Christie

Continued from Part I.

What kind of analysis can we employ to make a guess about whether a potential candidate will actually run for president? Ultimately it is a "guess," especially when a candidate has the ability to change his mind, but there are three factors worth looking at: Motive, means, and opportunity. In popular culture, these are the elements needed to prove that a suspect committed a crime. Perhaps unnervingly, they can also be used to predict someone's presidential intentions.

The first element, motive, refers to a candidate's desire to run for president and to become president. For most high-level politicians, motive is assumed. It's rare for someone to gain high political office without first possessing a lot of ambition. That's because politics is a difficult business, and ambition is needed to motivate a politician to get through the difficult times.

But motive isn't always present. As we mentioned in Part I, Mike Huckabee decided not to run because for whatever reason, his heart wasn't in it. In 2008, Fred Thompson did run, but he did so in a half-hearted way because he wasn't fully committed. A large portion of Newt Gingrich's campaign staff quit, apparently feeling Gingrich wasn't taking the campaign seriously enough. Other examples include those who lack a desire to get into politics. General David Petraeus has been asked about whether he might run for president, but it's clear he's not interested. Donald Trump could have gotten involved in politics, but he'd rather stick with the business world.

What about Chris Christie? While he denies he'll run for president this time, he won't close the door on 2016. That's a strong hint that he has a desire to become president--if not now, then later. When interviewed by Piers Morgan on CNN earlier this month, Morgan visited Christie's high school and observed that Christie was "president of everything" when he was a student. It's fair to say Christie possesses the motive to run for president.

The second element, means, refers to a candidate's political abilities. Specifically, a candidate possesses the means if he is capable of winning the presidential nomination of his party and winning a general election. Since we're dealing with a candidate's own decision whether to run, this is a matter of his perception. If a candidate thinks he has the capability of winning the presidency, he has the means.

Politicians who operate at a high level not only possess ambition, but also ego. Usually they think they can become president unless there's evidence to the contrary: lack of popularity, low poll numbers, etc. If Sarah Palin finally decides not to run, it will be because she's seen enough polls to convince her she lacks the means to win--her negatives are too high.

As for Christie, he's largely answered this question. Earlier this year, Christie claimed in an interview that politically-minded people had been coming to him plotting out a course where he could win. Christie explained that he already knew that he could win the nomination and the presidency. Christie's popularity, combined with positive feedback from Republicans around the country and political commentators, have almost certainly convinced Christie he is presidential material. It's fair to say Christie thinks he possesses the means.

The final element, opportunity, refers to timing. If a candidate thinks he has the means to become president, does he think he can win this election? Again, it's a matter of the candidate's own perception.

Even the best and most confident politicians can feel the timing isn't right. If the incumbent president is a member of your own party, it's unlikely you'll run against him. You'll wait for the next election instead. Likewise, if you think the other party's incumbent is unbeatable for reelection, you'll take a pass. In 1992, nearly all of the top Democratic contenders thought George Bush, Sr. was unbeatable after America won the Persian Gulf War. They skipped the election and were stunned to see Bill Clinton win. In 2004, Hillary Clinton knew she could win the nomination of her party, but thought George W. Bush was too difficult to defeat. She felt 2008 was her opportunity. And there are a number of rising stars in the Republican Party today who intend to run in 2016 or 2020, when they have more experience.

Christie, too, probably did not originally think he had the opportunity to run in 2012. He was too new to the national scene, and wanted to serve out a full term as New Jersey's governor. But then videos of Christie went "viral" and he became a favorite of both the Tea Party and establishment wings of the Republican Party. When the Republican 2012 field became settled, voters were dissatisfied with the available choices. And President Obama's approval ratings flatlined, making the Republican nomination very attractive.

Christie's remarks about "knowing" he can win were directed at the 2012 nomination and presidency. On that basis, it may be fair to say Christie knows he has the opportunity. Over the next few months, which comprise Phase Two of the primary, Republicans will decide whether they are still dissatisfied with the candidates already in the race. If things continue as they are, Christie should feel he has the motive, means, and opportunity to become president.

On the other hand, as we saw with Mitch Daniels, family matters. Christie's wife and children could decide it's too soon, and Christie might give them veto power. They could have already done so. But families can change their minds, too. Especially if, by September, the Republican Party still thinks it needs Christie.

2012 Republican Primary in Review: June 2011

The Elephant Watcher News archive for the month of June, 2011.

In June, the contest for the Republican nomination for president entered Phase Two, and the field of candidates was almost finalized. Over the course of the month, Mitt Romney, Rick Santorum, Jon Huntsman, and Michele Bachmann all officially entered the race. Meanwhile, Sarah Palin stayed out of the race, leading many to conclude that she will not run; she made no commitment either way.

The key moment of the month was the debate on June 13th. It was the first major debate of the primary season, though five candidates (including Gary Johnson) debated in early May. Conventional wisdom crystallized about the relative strength of some of the candidates. Mitt Romney, who topped all of the state primary polls after Mike Huckabee's departure in May, solidified his position as the frontrunner. He was not seriously attacked on the Romneycare issue. Tim Pawlenty appeared weak at the debate for failing to challenge Romney. His low poll numbers gave his campaign the impression of being in dire shape.

Michele Bachmann's appearance at the debate, combined with Sarah Palin's absence, marked a transition. Before, much attention was given to Palin. Bachmann shied away from getting into the race because she feared Palin might run. With no official word from Palin, Bachmann jumped into the race. A feud developed between the two, particularly after Bachmann's campaign manager, Ed Rollins, made disparaging remarks about Palin. But Bachmann was composed at the debate and did well in an Iowa poll. By the end of the month, the media turned its attention away from Palin and toward Bachmann.

Meanwhile, Herman Cain struggled to maintain his position as the Tea Party's favorite candidate. Before Bachmann got into the race, he got plenty of attention. Unfortunately, journalists and voters sensed weakness in Cain as they got a closer look at him. With Cain's honeymoon period wearing off and Bachmann's honeymoon beginning, Cain quickly lost ground.

June was a disaster for Newt Gingrich, whose campaign suffered a series of mass resignations. Gingrich kept calm and carried on, but was written off by the media. The campaigns of Rick Santorum and Jon Huntsman struggled to get off the ground. While Huntsman at least got some media attention, no one could quite articulate why Huntsman was running.

Rick Perry showed increasing signs of entering the race. He had previously denied that he would run, but suggested he might change his mind. A vacuum remained in the race, as most Republicans felt that the field of candidates was unsatisfactory. Perry likely perceived mixed reactions from voters as to whether they thought he could fill the void.

Chris Christie remained in the public eye, but under the radar as far as the 2012 primary was concerned. He was repeatedly questioned by interviewers whether he would run, and he continued to deny that he would. Elephant Watcher's calculation of the odds was relatively unchanged throughout the month; Christie maintained a huge lead with a 66% chance of winning the nomination. By the end of June, the sense of a void in the field was as great as ever. But Perry may attempt to fill it before Christie can.

Michele Bachmann's Odds on Intrade Rise, Establishment Candidates Fall

It has only been a few weeks since we last reviewed the odds on the Intrade markets, where investors can lay wagers on the 2012 Republican nomination. Intrade's page on the primary may be found here. Elephant Watcher offered a skeptical view of the predictive power of Intrade in an earlier post. But Intrade remains a useful tool, as it reflects the conventional wisdom of the Washington establishment.

Since the last time we looked at Intrade, little has changed for Mitt Romney. He's still in the lead, sitting at 35.6%, high above all competitors. Rick Perry has settled into a distant second at 15.9%, which is also about where he was last time.

The latest candidate to rise on Intrade--and it seems candidates take their turns doing so--is Michele Bachmann. She is buoyed by her recent bump in the polls, and stands at 15.1%. She's now in third place. Only Romney and Perry join her in the ranks of those getting double-digits.

The victims? Establishment favorites Tim Pawlenty and Jon Huntsman. Intrade gives them 8.7% and 7.1%, respectively. This is quite a drop from their positions in May, where Pawlenty had 25% and Huntsman had 17%. Perry and Bachmann have both hurt Pawlenty, who is (correctly) perceived as a competitor in Iowa.

It's the Iowa calculation that has a heavy influence on the Intrade odds. Intrade now has a market for investors to bet on the winner of the Iowa Caucus. Intrade investors give Bachmann nearly a 50% chance to win that contest. Pawlenty is only at 7%. Romney and Perry are both given about 13%. Meanwhile, the New Hampshire market shows Romney winning handily at 65%.

Intrade investors appear to be quite responsive to early polling--but only where Bachmann's concerned. So far, there's only one poll showing Bachmann doing well in Iowa, and she's not even in first place. Poor Romney, who leads Bachmann by one point in that poll, is given only a 12.9% chance of winning Iowa on the Intrade market. The investors (rightly) sense that Bachmann's support is a sign of vulnerability for Romney in Iowa. Iowa's voters are looking for a reason to vote for someone besides Romney.

Meanwhile, Herman Cain is only given a 1.5% chance of winning Iowa, which explains why he's fallen so far in the overall nomination odds: down to 1.9%. Intrade has put its money on Bachmann (or Perry) winning the Tea Party's support.