Sunday, May 22, 2011

Why Didn't Mitch Daniels Run?

Earlier today, Mitch Daniels released a written statement announcing that he will not run for president. The Campaign Status page has been updated yet again. The field appears to be solidifying rapidly.

Daniels, like the other three candidates who have announced they will not run, announced his decision in a convincing manner. Now only Christie and Palin remain on the roster in the "Potentially Running" category. Everyone else has officially entered the race, created an exploratory committee, or declined to run. If Palin or Christie decline to enter the race, they are likely to issue prepared statements like those made by Barbour, Daniels, Huckabee, and Trump.

Why did Daniels opt out of the race? In his statement, Daniels cited his family, and explained that his wife did not want him to run. It's actually quite common for a presidential candidate's wife to discourage her husband from running. More often than not, there is at least some resistance. Sometimes she changes her mind, sometimes not. Sometimes a candidate decides to run anyway. In this case, Daniels said that his wife had a "veto" he could not override.

Daniels, like Huckabee, had a reasonable chance of winning the nomination. Prior to his decision today, Daniels had a 7% chance of winning. Without Daniels in the mix, the race will change somewhat dramatically, especially in Iowa. This represents the biggest shake-up since Huckageddon.

As a result, Elephant Watcher will analyze the race once again and recalculate each candidate's odds of winning the nomination.