Thursday, October 13, 2011

Intrade Odds: Rick Perry Crashes Again, Ties Herman Cain

Rick Perry's odds on the Intrade market on the 2012 Republican nomination have crashed yet again following the Republican primary debate on October 11th. Perry peaked at 40% before the September debates; after them, he lost about half his support. Following this week's debate, Perry has lost another half of his support: He is currently trading at 10%.

Mitt Romney's odds have climbed a little higher, to 67.1%. Intrade investors believe he is twice as likely to win the nomination than the rest of the candidates combined. Herman Cain has also risen a little, to 9.5%. Cain and Perry are now essentially tied. Cain's rise on Intrade reflects Cain's rise in the latest polls. But Intrade investors are not quick to jump on the Cain train: If the polls are to be believed, Cain should be much higher than Perry.

As for the rest of the candidates, they are nowhere to be found. Jon Huntsman is the highest of them at 3.0%. Michele Bachmann is down to 1.1%. Intrade investors believe this is a three-man race, with Romney holding a whopping 57-point lead.

Perry's support has also collapsed in the Intrade markets on individual state contests. Whereas Perry was leading in the Iowa Caucus market and the South Carolina market, Romney is now leading in both, at 37.5% and 30%, respectively. It should be noted that although Romney is leading, he is still considered less than 50/50 to win those contests. Cain is splitting the Anti-Romney support.

In summary, the latest Intrade numbers reflect the perception that Mitt Romney is a huge favorite to win the nomination, that Rick Perry's support has crashed, that Herman Cain is rising, and that the Anti-Romney vote is split. The investors see some promise in Cain, but are skeptical of his ultimately winning. They have completely turned against former frontrunner Perry.