Mitt Romney Wins Florida Primary

Mitt Romney won a landslide victory in the Florida Primary on Tuesday. Romney won 46% of the vote; Newt Gingrich placed a distant second with 32%. Florida was a key test for the candidates, a neutral battleground that inherently favored neither Romney nor Gingrich over the other. Romney's big win in Florida is a strong indication that he will win the nomination.

Gingrich's double-digit loss will have a devastating effect on his campaign. Although his concession speech emphasized that there are "46 states to go," the race will actually become increasingly difficult. As time goes on, debates will become infrequent; the role of money, organization, and momentum will become more important. That's why Gingrich needed a big win in Florida. Even more alarming was the extent of Romney's win:

Florida Primary (98% reporting)
Romney -- 46%
Gingrich -- 32%
Santorum -- 13%
Paul -- 7%

Even supposing Rick Santorum had dropped out of the race, adding several additional points to Gingrich's total (and a few to Romney's), Romney would have beaten Gingrich in Florida by a comfortable margin. If Romney is able to repeat his Florida performance in in similar states, he will win the nomination with little difficulty.

Santorum's support eroded after Gingrich's win in South Carolina, but Santorum's debate performance on Thursday apparently stopped the bleeding. Gingrich's defeat to Romney strengthens Santorum's argument that the Anti-Romney voters have backed the wrong horse. However, Santorum placed so far behind Gingrich that it will be difficult for voters to see him as a viable candidate.

Is there any chance left for Gingrich or Santorum to win the nomination? At this point, their best hope is to absolutely destroy Romney during the remaining debates. Otherwise, only some unforeseen scandal or catastrophe can turn things around.

Florida Primary Tomorrow

Tomorrow is the big day: The Florida Primary. The media and all the political pundits are paying a lot of attention to Florida, and they are right to do so. Florida will be the first big test of how the fight between Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich will play out across the country. Iowa's Romney-Santorum tie was inconclusive, Romney's win in his "backyard" of New Hampshire was expected, and Gingrich's win in his "backyard" of South Carolina should have come as no surprise. But Florida is viewed as a neutral battleground. If Romney or Gingrich decisively beats the other in Florida, we can expect a similar dynamic across the other "neutral" states in the country.

The other story, which will probably get a lot less attention, will be Rick Santorum's performance as the lesser Anti-Romney. If he can get close enough to Gingrich, it will suggest that some Anti-Romney voters are having second thoughts about Gingrich. If Santorum does poorly, he will increasingly be seen as a useless appendage to the race.

There has been a lot of polling in Florida, and here are the most recent ones:

Florida Primary
01/29 Suffolk -- Romney 47, Gingrich 27, Santorum 12, Paul 9
01/29 Quinnipiac -- Romney 42, Gingrich 29, Santorum 11, Paul 11
01/29 PPP (D) -- Romney 37, Gingrich 33, Paul 13, Santorum 13
01/29 Insider Adv -- Romney 36, Gingrich 31, Santorum 12, Paul 12
01/29 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 50, Gingrich 28, Santorum 12, Paul 10
01/29 SurveyUSA -- Romney 41, Gingrich 26, Santorum 12, Paul 12
01/29 Reuters -- Romney 42, Gingrich 30, Santorum 16, Paul 6
01/28 ARG -- Romney 43, Gingrich 32, Santorum 11, Paul 8
01/28 Rasmussen -- Romney 44, Gingrich 28, Santorum 12, Paul 10

The result shouldn't be in much doubt: Mitt Romney leads in every single poll. The only question is the margin. Most of the polls give Romney a double-digit lead, with the biggest being about 20 points. Two of the polls (PPP and Insider Advantage) have Romney with about a 5 point lead. The disparity is odd, but it may have something to do with the way the pollsters handle early voting. By all reports, Romney has a huge advantage among those who have already voted, and perhaps some of the pollsters weigh that differently.

In recent days, Elephant Watcher has spent some time exploring the primaries and caucuses set to take place further down the road. It's clear that the schedule favors Romney. Many of his strongest states are backloaded in the winner-take-all period of the primary, beginning April 3rd. He also has a slate of favorable states immediately following Florida. Thus, he gets the benefit of building up momentum early on, and he has the delegate advantage of stacking the winner-take-all deck. Most of Gingrich's favorable states (i.e. solid-red Southern states) are sandwiched in the middle of the schedule, where they offer less in the way of early momentum and fewer delegates.

Then there are the "neutral" states, particularly red states outside the South, and Republican-leaning swing states--like Florida. They are sprinkled throughout the schedule. Whom do those states favor? Florida's result should tell us. If Romney crushes Gingrich in Florida, he can do the same in similar states. Gingrich really needs a win in Florida to blunt Romney's momentum and prove that he can win enough to offset Romney's schedule advantage. (And Republican-leaning swing states are obviously necessary for Gingrich if Romney is going to win all the blue ones, as seems likely.)

After losing Florida, the Gingrich camp is likely to spin that Florida wasn't really a fair fight, and that Florida was really a pro-Romney state all along. Elephant Watcher isn't persuaded. At his height, Gingrich was polling very well in Florida. It's also, technically, a Southern state. There's nothing about Florida that really suggests a pro-Romney bent, other than the fact that it isn't an anti-Romney state.

Then there's the money issue. Florida, being one of the nation's most populous states, is an expensive place to campaign. Romney has the money advantage. But future states won't get any cheaper. They may be smaller, but they will come one after the other, often with multiple states voting on the same day. If anything, campaigning will become more expensive from now on, not less. Moreover, if Gingrich starts losing states, his money will dry up. He will receive fewer campaign contributions, while Romney will get more. Gingrich has also been unusually reliant on one big SuperPAC donor, which is a bad sign.

In conclusion, losing Florida will be a crushing blow to Gingrich. If Romney's margin of victory is big, Gingrich will be mocked in the media as experiencing another "meltdown" or "implosion." The only silver lining is that Romney is now expected to win. If Gingrich loses by a very, very small margin, he may be seen as competitive. But to continue being viewed that way, Gingrich will also need to do better than expected in the February contests.

The Santorum Dilemma

Santorum

Having performed well in the debate on Thursday, Rick Santorum is slowly creeping up in some Florida polls. This should worry Newt Gingrich: In the final days before voting, Santorum's numbers ought to fall as Anti-Romney voters coalesce behind Gingrich. If Santorum's numbers are similar to or greater than Romney's margin of victory in the Florida Primary, Gingrich may be prompted to complain that he would have won if the conservative vote hadn't split. Under such conditions, Gingrich wouldn't be shy about asking Santorum to quit the race.

After Gingrich's win in South Carolina, Elephant Watcher predicted that Santorum's support would melt away. In the days following Gingrich's victory, that's precisely what occurred: Santorum, who had been running close to Gingrich in Florida, plummeted to about 10%. Gingrich was left as the chief Anti-Romney. Watching the debate on Thursday, Elephant Watcher gave Santorum high marks and predicted that his numbers would stop bleeding. If anything, they would recover--but not enough to threaten Romney. Instead, the split would widen Romney's margin of victory.

Santorum's support appears to exist in limbo: It's never big enough to allow him to become the chief Anti-Romney, but it's never small enough to completely die off and leave Gingrich in peace. Why is this?

To understand the Santorum dilemma, one needs to go back to what happened in Iowa. Over the course of 2011, Iowa had seen Bachmann, Perry, Cain, and Gingrich all rise to the top, only to crash and burn once voters learned about their weaknesses. Finally, it was Santorum's turn, and he began to spike in the polls. Santorum was a more natural candidate for Iowa, since he could claim more electability than his predecessors. He was also more believable as a conservative, and his message was aimed directly at Evangelicals. On top of that, Santorum had spent his entire campaign in Iowa.

Unfortunately for Santorum, Florida's decision to push the calendar forward a month ruined his opportunity. He just didn't have enough time. On top of that, Santorum's rivals (e.g. Perry and Paul) spotted the Santorum surge early and responded by quickly unloading some negative ads against him. Santorum essentially tied Romney for first place. At the time, Romney was reported the victor, having won by eight votes.

Later, a recount of Iowa credited Santorum as the winner by a handful of votes. But retroactively declaring someone the winner of an early primary is like putting a sign on a pig that says "horse." The value of winning the early states is getting good media and momentum, neither of which can be awarded in a recount.

(As an aside, Romney didn't get the full benefit of a win, either. Since it was understood he and Santorum got almost a perfect tie, he had to share the headlines. The same would have occurred for Santorum if he had been given credit for the win at the time.)

After Romney's big win in New Hampshire, the Anti-Romney voters understood that they needed to coalesce behind a single Anti-Romney candidate, rather than splitting the vote. The question was whether they should rally behind Santorum or Gingrich. The battleground in which the decision would be made was South Carolina, and that meant Gingrich was the answer: Gingrich had the name recognition, more money, and a big edge in South Carolina polls over Santorum. Santorum performed ably in the debates, but Gingrich overshadowed him when the moderators set Gingrich up perfectly to attack the liberal media. Gingrich had a big win in South Carolina. He didn't just beat Romney; he clobbered Santorum. After that, there was little question Gingrich would be the chief Anti-Romney in Florida.

But then, having watched Gingrich wither under attack ads, and having seen Santorum perform better at Thursday's debate, some Anti-Romney voters are having second thoughts. Santorum is arguably a better fit for the Tea Party than Gingrich, who had been derided as a "RINO" earlier in the year. Did Santorum ever stand a chance? Does he have a chance going forward?

Santorum could have become the chief Anti-Romney. But to do it, he would have needed a big win in Iowa. Losing (apparently) to Romney by a few votes wasn't good enough. He needed to do what Mike Huckabee did in 2008, and take the state by a sizable margin. And he would have needed to distinguish himself in the debates before South Carolina, and at least make it close. Finally, Santorum needed to focus his attacks on Gingrich instead of Romney.

Going forward, the picture looks bleak for Santorum. He needs the debates even more than Gingrich does, as he lacks money and name recognition. His only hope is to somehow place a much closer third in Florida than the polls indicate. Perhaps if Santorum and Gingrich are close enough, the media narrative will include Santorum doing better than expected, and give him some kind of a boost. Otherwise, the problem is that Santorum will only reinforce his position as a lower-tier candidate. This will occur in one state after another before the next debate is held. If Santorum repeatedly places behind Gingrich, it only serves to hammer in the message that there's no turning back--it's too late to switch from one Anti-Romney to another.

What Happens if Romney Wins Florida?

Earlier this week we considered the question of what would happen if Gingrich wins Florida. The answer was that the race would become a protracted delegate fight between Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, with Romney rebuilding momentum through wins in the February contests. Now that the Florida polls--nearly all taken before Romney won Thursday's debate--have Romney with a comfortable lead, it's time to consider the alternative. How does the presidential primary proceed if Romney wins Florida?

The short answer is that Romney would become heavily favored to win the nomination. Why is Florida's result so important? In an earlier post, we explained why early states have so much influence in a primary. It's not just that they push the results of the later states; they also reveal how the later states are likely to play out. Florida is neutral territory. It is not heavily biased toward Romney (like Utah) or heavily biased toward Gingrich (like Georgia). It's a fair fight. If Romney wins in Florida--particularly if he wins big--it tells you that Romney is likely going to win other "unbiased" states in the future.

Romney winning Florida will provide him with momentum and good media narratives. The boost will be a bonus, as he has a series of pro-Romney states coming up in February. And there are few debates scheduled in the future--and even those may be cancelled. That means fewer opportunities for Gingrich to turn things back around.

February 4 -- Nevada
Romney won NV big in 2008, thanks in large part to the Mormon vote.

February 7 -- Colorado, Minnesota, Missouri (all non-binding)
Romney won CO and MN in 2008. Gingrich is not on the ballot in MO.

February 11 -- Maine (non-binding)
Romney won ME in 2008, and likely will dominate in the Northeastern states.

February 28 -- Arizona, Michigan
Romney won MI in 2008; it is his home state. Like other western states, AZ should be decent for Romney.

March 3 -- Washington
Like other "blue" states, WA will favor Romney.

By the time "Super Tuesday" rolls around on March 6th, Romney will have built up an unstoppable momentum. His campaign, and the media, will push the narrative that Gingrich can only win in the South, while Romney is favored to win in the Northeast, West, all the blue states, and probably all the swing states. However, Gingrich ought to remain in the race, and will still be able to win a handful of states (especially in the South) no matter how bad things get.

But beginning April 3rd, the remaining states will be "winner-take-all," making them much more valuable to win. As it happens, many of the blue states--Northeastern states in particular--are slated for April 3rd and later:

Romney favored?
Blue (9): CA, CN, DC, DE, MD, NJ, NY, OR, RI
Bluish swing (2): PA, WI
Western (4): MT, NM, SD, UT

Gingrich favored?
Southern (5): AR, KY, NC, TX, WV

Neutral?
Red (2): IN, NE

With the exception of Texas, Gingrich doesn't have much going for him. Romney can count on California, New York, and a whole host of blue or "bluish" states. It should be readily apparent that the winner-take-all deck is stacked against Gingrich. Gingrich's challenge, then, is to build up enough of a delegate lead and enough momentum in the January-March states to offset this imbalance. Without Florida to kick things off, that is an extremely difficult task.

Romney Approaches 100% Again on Intrade

It's been awhile since we last did a post on the Intrade market on the Republican primary. After Mitt Romney won New Hampshire and bounced to the top of the South Carolina polls, he climbed to over 90% on Intrade. When Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, Romney's Intrade odds plummeted.

Gingrich topped the Florida polls following his South Carolina victory. But Intrade investors did not simply flip the odds in his favor and give him as great a chance of winning the nomination as Romney had gotten following New Hampshire. At Romney's lowest point, on January 24 (before all of the pro-Romney polls started pouring in), he fell to less than 65%. Quite a drop from 90%, but not all the way to Gingrich's level.

By contrast, the Intrade market for the Florida primary took the poll numbers pretty much at face value. Romney, who had been rated over 90% to win Florida, fell to less than 40%, giving Gingrich a decent odds advantage. Evidently the investors understood the difference between winning Florida and winning the nomination: Even if Gingrich won Florida, they felt Romney would still have a firewall in later contests. However, it seems likely that if Gingrich won Florida, Romney's Intrade odds for the nomination would have fallen further, below Gingrich's.

The last several days have turned things around. New polls show Romney leading in Florida by nearly 10 points. Romney's strong performance at Thursday's debate (and Gingrich's weak performance) also made a difference. Romney's odds of winning the Florida Primary are back over 90%. His odds of winning the nomination are at 87%. If/when Romney wins Florida, his odds will probably match their earlier highs, perhaps reaching toward the 95% mark.

Romney's gain is Gingrich's loss. Today, his Intrade odds stand at 5.6%. Before Thursday's debate, he was trading at nearly double that. Ron Paul is at 3.4%. Rick Santorum can't catch a break--he is only at 1.9%. Intrade markets have started opening for the February contests, and Romney enjoys a substantial lead in each of these.

Who Won the Republican Debate on January 26th?

In tonight's debate, Newt Gingrich needed a knock-out performance. Instead, he was K.O.'d by Mitt Romney, who overwhelmingly won the debate. If Romney wins the Republican nomination for president, many will look back on this debate and say this was the night when Romney's victory was sealed.

Time and again, Romney engaged in one-on-one exchanges with Gingrich. Time and again, Romney trounced him. The crowd in the audience hall repeatedly cheered Romney during these exchanges and were almost mute to Gingrich's responses. It's ironic, considering Gingrich was the one who insisted that the audience be allowed to react. Maybe he expected to be given standing ovations, but instead the audience was firmly in Romney's corner.

From the start, Romney took control of the debate. The moderator asked Gingrich to explain his attack ad portraying Romney as "the most anti-immigrant candidate" in the race. Gingrich, who had been scolded by Senator Marco Rubio earlier in the week and forced to stop running the ad, tried to defend himself. Romney launched into a powerful attack against Gingrich, repeating Rubio's criticisms of the ad. Romney went on to bolster his argument that he is pro-legal immigration. Gingrich shrank.

Shortly afterward, Gingrich went on the offensive, attacking Romney for having stock in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. But Romney slammed Gingrich by revealing that Gingrich, too, had investments with Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. Gingrich seemed more surprised than anyone.

Next, when Gingrich criticized Romney's use of a Swiss bank account, Romney counter-punched with a defense of capitalism. Once again, Romney received huge applause from the crowd. Gingrich seemed unsure how to respond.

Finally, after Gingrich attempted to defend his advocacy for a lunar colony, Romney attacked Gingrich for pandering by offering a list of the ways Gingrich had made promises to the different states he campaigned in; Romney framed this as a criticism of Gingrich promising big spending.

Rick Santorum also did well in the debate. He largely avoided attacking other candidates, but he did get into an extended battle with Romney over Romneycare. Romney certainly didn't dominate the exchange as he did during his duels with Gingrich. It was a draw, with an advantage to Santorum for putting Romney on the defensive. But it also gave Romney the opportunity to contrast Obamacare and repeatedly insist that as president he will repeal Obamacare.

What will the result of this debate be? Gingrich was shattered. Many political observers will be surprised by Romney's strong performance--or by Gingrich's poor debating skills. But this was the scenario that Elephant Watcher described on Sunday, and anticipated back in December: Gingrich hasn't been great in one-on-one exchanges, and when Romney has tangled with Gingrich, Romney has usually gotten the better of it. Having been forced to go on the offensive, Romney now appears as a stronger, more confident candidate. He had no choice but to prove Gingrich was not the debating champion he pretended to be. Now many Republican pundits will say they finally saw the fire and passion in Romney that they had been waiting for.

And as described in Sunday's preview of the week's debates, this undermines Gingrich's campaign in devastating fashion. Gingrich based his candidacy around the idea that he was the man who would be best able to debate Barack Obama. Having lost so badly to Romney, how can Gingrich make that argument convincingly?

Santorum also did a better job in the debate than Gingrich. Since the Anti-Romney vote coalesced dramatically behind Gingrich in South Carolina, Santorum's numbers have dropped precipitously. Normally, at this point, they would drop even further, as the polls show Gingrich is much closer to Romney in Florida. But this debate will make it much more difficult for Santorum supporters to get behind Gingrich. If anything, it should make some of Santorum's old supporters want to come back. But it is simply too late for the Gingrich vote to shift entirely in favor of a different Anti-Romney. Voting is on Tuesday. At most, a shift would only split the Anti-Romney vote and increase Romney's margin of victory.

Final Pre-Florida Debate Tomorrow

Tomorrow evening, the candidates will take the stage for the last time before the Florida Primary. The debate is set to air on CNN at 8:00pm Eastern. Once again, Newt Gingrich will be challenged to meet the high expectations he has set for himself as a debate artist. During Monday's debate, Gingrich did not fall apart, but he did not really shine. The media took note that it wasn't one of his strongest performances. Gingrich even complained that the debate audience wasn't permitted to cheer--apparently assuming that the audience would otherwise have expressed support for him.

The burden is on Gingrich to do well because he has made his debate expertise a central part of his candidacy. If he does poorly, he will get a lot of negative press. Even if he's just average, like last time, a second less-than-stellar performance will be seen as a defeat. The media may even call into question whether he's as good a debater as he claims.

After Monday's debate, the media even began to notice for the first time that Gingrich has relied heavily on attacking liberal debate moderators who aren't allowed to defend themselves. If the CNN moderators choose not to give Gingrich any reasons to attack them, Gingrich will lack his most valuable ammunition.

Gingrich has extra reason to perform well at tomorrow's debate: He's slipping in the Florida polls. Although the polling situation is not totally clear, some of the most recent polls suggest that Gingrich is losing his post-South Carolina bounce, and that Mitt Romney may be retaking the lead. Since it's expensive to advertise in Florida, and since Romney has the money advantage, Gingrich has an uphill battle. Negative ads have been very effective against Gingrich in the past, as his implosion in Iowa demonstrated. Gingrich needs a solid debate performance to counteract the negative ads. There will be few debates scheduled after Florida, making tomorrow's debate all the more critical.

Romney and Rick Santorum will need to choose whether and how often to go on the offensive. Though Gingrich was able to parry some of Romney's attacks during Monday's debate, Romney was able to appear tough. That's a contrast to the defensive posture Romney took in some prior debates. Since the polling appears to be moving in Romney's direction, his campaign may credit Romney's willingness to attack Gingrich face-to-face. At the same time, going on the offensive always carries a risk. If the campaign credits the negative ads, rather than the debate, then they will seek to avoid any unnecessary fireworks.

What Happens if Gingrich Wins Florida?

Although Newt Gingrich is a long way from winning the Florida Primary, most of the Florida polls taken in the immediate aftermath of his South Carolina win show him in the lead. That means it is worth considering what would happen if Gingrich actually does win Florida when voters take to the polls in that state on January 31st.

There are essentially two different "modes" for a presidential primary season. In the first mode, a candidate wins decisively in the early set of primaries, and his momentum carries him forward to victory. All of the fighting really takes place in the early primaries. This is the mode that characterizes almost every presidential primary season.

Technically speaking, the winner of the presidential nomination is determined by the number of delegates he wins. Each state has its own rules on how the delegates are chosen: Some are winner-take-all, some are based on districts, some are proportional, some are a combination of different methods. And some states are penalized by the national Republican Party for breaking the calendar.

Normally, little attention is paid to the delegate math. Partly that's because it's difficult to follow, but mostly it's because the delegate math usually doesn't matter. In the "normal mode," the winner is obvious long before people start counting up the delegates.

But in the second mode, the "delegate mode," the outcome of the race isn't obvious after the early states vote. In such a case, the race goes on through every state (or a lot of states), and the candidates must grind out as many delegates as possible.

If Mitt Romney had won South Carolina and gone on to win Florida, the race would be in "normal mode." Arguably, if Romney wins Florida, the race will soon become characterized as one-sided, with Romney going on to win the next several states. As suggested a few days ago, the media will turn against Gingrich as quickly as they turned in his favor after South Carolina.

If Gingrich wins Florida, particularly if it's a strong finish, the race will enter "delegate mode." The race will become a contentious battle until Romney wins enough delegates to clinch the nomination, or until the convention. Since the Republican establishment views Gingrich as an unacceptable, unelectable nominee, there will be no giving up on the part of Gingrich's rival(s).

A few days after the Florida Primary, the Nevada Caucus will be held (February 4th). Romney is expected to win there, as he did in 2008. He won't get much credit for this firewall, as the Mormon vote will play a big role. But Romney will at least be able to claim a 2-2 tie with Gingrich.

There are four non-binding contests in early February, taking place in Maine, Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Romney is expected to win most or all of these, as he won Maine, Colorado, and Minnesota in 2008, and since Gingrich failed to qualify for the ballot in Missouri. (Gingrich will claim Missouri doesn't count, but Romney will credibly argue that Gingrich's failure to get on the ballot is significant in and of itself.) Having done well in these contests, Romney will regain some momentum lost after defeats in South Carolina and Florida. If Romney sweeps Nevada and the four non-binding contests, his campaign will begin pushing the narrative that Gingrich can only win in the South.

On February 28, there will be two primaries, in Arizona and Michigan. The situation in Arizona won't be totally clear for some time, but it should be a reasonably good state for Romney. Michigan is expected to be a strong state for Romney, since it's his home state and the state where his father served as governor.

Thus, although Gingrich's chance of winning the nomination would increase substantially upon winning Florida, his momentum would be blunted by Romney's wins in the February contests. That indicates Gingrich's best scenario is a protracted battle, since an outright win is not possible under these conditions. At most, Gingrich would be considered even with Romney; at worst, the narrative would be that the momentum has shifted against him again. By contrast, an outright win is possible for Romney if he wins Florida.

Who Won the Republican Debate on January 23rd?

In tonight's debate, Newt Gingrich failed to live up to the high expectations that have been set by his previous debate performances. Mitt Romney, who had been on the defensive in the last few debates, shifted to offense. Romney did a good job attacking Gingrich, and managed to look tough without looking nasty. Gingrich defended himself fairly well at first, but he showed vulnerability as time went on--near the end of his extended one-on-one exchange with Romney, Gingrich was (uncharacteristically) at a loss for words for a moment.

But the debate was not a clear-cut victory for Romney. His central line of attack against Gingrich was Gingrich's lobbying and taking money from Freddie Mac. Romney would have done better to directly attack either Gingrich's lack of conservatism or lack of electability. The lobbying charge would presumably be aimed at Gingrich's electability, but is not as direct as, for example, Romney's earlier attacks that Gingrich is "zany" and undisciplined.

Romney showed discipline when attacking Gingrich, but made a gaffe on the subject of illegal immigration. When asked how illegals would be forced to return home if they were not "rounded up," Romney explained that illegals would do "self-deportation." Romney went on to describe that if employers didn't hire illegals, illegals would not be able to find work and would return home to begin the process of legal immigration.

Ironically, when Rick Santorum was asked whether "self-deportation" was feasible, he immediately said that it was and that it was already happening, with many illegals returning to Mexico due to the bad economy. Regardless, Romney's use of the phrase "self-deportation" makes an easy sound-bite and could hurt him by making him appear soft on illegal immigration. Romney may have been attempting to curry favor with the Cuban vote in Florida, but a gaffe is a gaffe.

Fortunately for Romney, he dealt with the tax return issue quickly, was not challenged on Bain Capital, and largely was not attacked for Romneycare or flip-flopping.

Gingrich did not get the opportunity to have a stand-out moment in the debate. The debate moderators never gave him a chance to attack them for being too liberal.

Santorum was mostly out of the debate, since the action focused on Romney and Gingrich. Interestingly, Santorum chose not to go on the offensive against either Romney or Gingrich until his closing remarks. Meanwhile, Ron Paul was irrelevant and received little attention.

Debate Tomorrow on NBC

The latest installment of the January debates will take place tomorrow at 9:00pm Eastern on NBC. As with the week before South Carolina's primary, debates are scheduled for Monday and Thursday this week. Florida's primary will be held next Tuesday, on January 31st.

Mitt Romney enjoyed a big lead in all of the Florida polls, but they were taken prior to Newt Gingrich's win in South Carolina. All of the candidates will likely see both Romney and Gingrich as threats to win the Florida Primary. Rick Santorum, in particular, ought to feel the need to go on the offensive. Gingrich has tended to shy away from attacking other candidates during debates, as has Romney. Tomorrow's debate may be the first time each feels a compelling need to attack the other.

The debates present both an opportunity and a danger for Gingrich. He has been comfortable at the debates, and has used them to his advantage. However, he has also built the debates into his campaign narrative: Gingrich claims that he is electable solely because he is so good at debates. As the idea goes, even though polls show Barack Obama beating Gingrich by a wide margin, Gingrich would beat Obama in the debates.

Therein lies the danger for Gingrich: If Gingrich does badly at a debate--particularly if he suffers in one-on-one exchanges with Romney--his narrative is undone before a live audience of millions. Expectations are so high that even a single poor debate performance could cause Gingrich's electability argument to collapse like a house of cards.

The media narrative is that Gingrich is very good at debates. But as Elephant Watcher observed in December, Gingrich has not fared particularly well when he's been in one-on-one exchanges with opponents. He has not done that well at what one would ordinarily call "debating," that is, arguing back and forth with an opponent. Instead, he has gotten applause during the debates by delivering interesting answers and criticizing the liberal debate moderators (who can't fight back). Thus, the media and the audiences seem to have conflated "being good while at the debates" with "being good at debate."

This presents the big question for Gingrich: If he doesn't get an opportunity to chew out a debate moderator, and if he shrinks when he's attacked by Romney or Santorum, what happens to his electability argument?

Meanwhile, Romney has his own electability argument to consider. Essentially the entire reason for Romney's current support is that he is considered the most likely to defeat Obama. The polls alluded to earlier support this belief. Though Romney deflected the Bain attacks well, they were an attempt to undermine his electability. The questions about Romney's tax returns and overseas investments also serve to cast doubt on his electability. Romney's first priority should be to allay concerns about any financial skeletons he may have. Second, he should get into an extended debate encounter with Gingrich to prove that Gingrich is not the debate wizard he claims to be.