Sunday, April 17, 2011

Christie Projected to Win Republican 2012 Primary

With 0 of the primaries and caucuses complete, and with 0% of the delegates awarded, Elephant Watcher is now able to project that New Jersey Governor Chris Christie will win the Republican Presidential Primary of 2012.

The present Ranking of the candidates gives Christie a 60% chance of victory.

A more detailed analysis of Christie's winning scenario and how events have led to it is included in the Rankings page.

Christie's strategy relies upon a lack of unity in the Republican Party, particularly between candidates favored by the Republican establishment and those favored by the Tea Party. Given the split that actually exists, Christie's winning scenario will likely occur.

However, there is still a significant possibility that Christie will lose. In order to defeat him, one of the other candidates will need to convincingly display an ability to unite the Party. Some of the other candidates are inoffensive to both wings of the Republican Party, but so far they have lacked the ability to generate enthusiasm. Enthusiasm is essential because primary voters generally turn out to vote for a candidate.