What Could Make Santorum Quit?

Santorum

As the delegate math increasingly favors Mitt Romney, the Republican Party establishment has intensified pressure on Rick Santorum to drop out of the race. If Romney is almost guaranteed to win the nomination, the reasoning goes, then Santorum's refusal to quit will only undermine the Republican nominee and help Barack Obama. If and when Romney accumulates a majority of the delegates, the race will be concluded. But will Santorum quit at any point prior to that? What could make him drop out early?

A few days ago, we reviewed the situation in Wisconsin, which holds its primary on Tuesday. If the polling is to be believed, Romney will carry Wisconsin and win the other two contests that day. Afterward, Elephant Watcher expects the nature of the race to change--such that it's not viewed as a real race anymore--with virtually all observers recognizing that Romney will win the nomination. After Tuesday's contests, it will be another three weeks until the next series of states will vote. It will not be a pleasant three weeks. Will Santorum quit?

The problem with inducing Santorum to quit after April 3rd is that Santorum's home state, Pennsylvania, will be among the states voting in the next batch (April 24th). The other states that day will vote for Romney. While Pennsylvania may be more competitive than expected, it should favor Santorum. How can Santorum quit right before his home state votes? If polling shows Santorum a certain loser in Pennsylvania, then he may be inclined to quit. But that's unlikely. If Santorum stays in and loses Pennsylvania, he'll have a good reason to quit.

After April 24th, Romney's lead in delegates will be at its greatest. The delegate math will be unquestionable, even if Santorum does well in Pennsylvania. This would be a good time for Santorum to end the race. Unfortunately, the calendar will again tempt Santorum to keep fighting. In May, the calendar is extremely favorable to Santorum, with many Southern states voting. The big one, Texas, will not vote until the end of May. If May's roster of states had been earlier in the calendar, Santorum would have some real momentum. (The newsmedia, which tends to overreact to short-term trends, could even fool itself into believing Santorum is getting somewhere in spite of the math.) By the time May rolls around, the math will not permit Santorum to win. However, the allure of winning all of those easy states will be very enticing to Santorum.

If Santorum is unable to resist staying in the race, he should do well in May. Nevertheless, the effect of Romney's wins in April will have a profound effect, and could lead to a collapse in Santorum's support. If Santorum manages to lose Texas, then he should quit, because the states voting in June will guarantee another string of humiliating losses. But if Santorum wins Texas, how can he immediately quit? One doesn't normally quit after a win; candidates quit after losses. So if Santorum stays in the race after Texas, he will essentially be staying in until Romney gets a majority of the delegates, which will occur on June 5th.

In summary, the delegate math and establishment pressure will suggest Santorum should quit, but the primary calendar will repeatedly encourage Santorum to stay in the race until Romney has won a majority of the delegates. Only a loss in Pennsylvania (or Texas) would be a likely trigger for an early exit by Santorum.

Wisconsin: The Final Battleground?

Next Tuesday, on April 3rd, primaries will be held in Washington D.C., Maryland, and Wisconsin. Thus far, no polling has been conducted in D.C.; Mitt Romney is expected to win there since Rick Santorum is not on the ballot. In Maryland, only one poll has been conducted (yesterday by Rasmussen) showing Romney ahead of Santorum by 17 points. Given Maryland's status as a Northeastern state, Romney was always expected to win there. That leaves Wisconsin, a Midwestern state where Santorum should win if he is to have any real chance at taking the nomination--or even of forcing a contested convention. Wisconsin is on Santorum's turf. In February, polls gave Santorum a big lead there. But now, Romney has the lead. A few more Wisconsin polls should be released prior to the vote, but here is where the candidates currently stand. The two recent polls are included, and for contrast, so is the final February poll:

Wisconsin Primary
03/25 Marquette Uni -- Romney 39, Santorum 31, Paul 11, Gingrich 5
03/21 Rasmussen -- Romney 46, Santorum 33, Paul 8, Gingrich 7
02/26 PPP (D) -- Santorum 43, Romney 27, Gingrich 10, Paul 8

The race has changed dramatically since the February poll, which was conducted just days before Romney's crucial wins in Michigan and Ohio. In February, Santorum had a lead of 16 points; now Romney has a lead of about 10 points. This shift toward Romney is consistent with the shifts that have occurred previously: Santorum lost big leads in Michigan and Ohio before he was defeated by Romney.

Losing Wisconsin would be devastating for Santorum's campaign. As desperate as the situation already is, things would get even worse. Like Ohio, Wisconsin is a state where Santorum has no excuse for not winning. Santorum's campaign will be considered in free-fall, especially if he loses by a convincing margin. If that weren't bad enough, Wisconsin is one of Santorum's best states on the April calendar. He needs to win Wisconsin, if only to take one step toward counterbalancing the effect of his other losses.

Unfortunately for Santorum, there's no particular reason to think that he will be able to turn things around and defy the polls. His usual trump card for beating the polls is to benefit from the strategic defection of Newt Gingrich's supporters, who hope to coalesce the Anti-Romney vote. But Gingrich is already down to about 6 points in the polls. At least in Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois, Gingrich had been polling double-digits, so there were some votes to be had. In the Wisconsin polls, there just aren't many Gingrich voters to defect.

Wisconsin may well be the final battleground. True, there are many states to follow. In May, there are several states that heavily favor Santorum, and there are additional states throughout the calendar that will be competitive. But if Santorum loses Wisconsin, the nature of the campaign will change in a fundamental way. No longer will anyone seriously consider Santorum able to win the Republican nomination. Even Santorum's most faithful supporters will abandon hope of victory.

Santorum's Plan Unravels

In recent days, Republican voters have become increasingly aware that Rick Santorum's chances of winning the nomination are very small, and that Mitt Romney is extremely likely to win. Santorum has now spoke openly of his intention to force a contested convention, and that he does not expect to win an outright majority of the delegates. This betrays weakness on Santorum's part, and will diminish his appeal further: Most Republicans believe that a contested convention would be a disaster. Do voters think Santorum is so much better than Romney that they are willing to allow a contested convention? Some voters, but not enough.

It's notable that Santorum has reached this point even though the Romney-favored April schedule has not yet begun. After April's contests are concluded, the delegate math will look far more daunting for Santorum than it does now. So why has Santorum already fallen so far? Because his plan for winning the nomination has not been successful.

Beginning in February, we have frequently referred to the two different paths to the nomination. Romney's plan was to sweep the West and Northeast, while occasionally taking states in the Midwest. Santorum's plan was, at a minimum, to sweep the South and Midwest. Romney's campaign has gone according to plan, though it was rattled by Santorum's wins on February 7th (in Minnesota and Colorado). Santorum's plan has not gone so smoothly.

Of the Southern and Midwestern states that have voted so far, Santorum has lost around half of them--and that's not even counting the delegate losses suffered when Newt Gingrich failed to win a state but still got a bunch of delegates. The following is a list of the states in Santorum's regions that have voted, where Santorum failed to win for one reason or another:

Midwest
Iowa (lost during initial count)
Michigan
Ohio
Illinois

South
South Carolina
Florida
Georgia
Virginia

Remember, these are not losses in battleground regions where Santorum can afford to win some and lose some--they're losses on Santorum's home turf. Santorum was gravely weakened during the opening phase of the primary calendar, when Gingrich was considered the chief Anti-Romney for a time. Critically, Santorum also suffered narrow losses in Michigan and Ohio--contests that could have gone either way.

Things could have played out much better for Santorum. Without Gingrich in the way, Santorum would have won South Carolina and Georgia. If he had qualified for the ballot in Virginia, he would have taken that state, too. He may have fared better against Romney in Florida than Gingrich did. If Santorum had been luckier, he could have won the initial vote count in Iowa and narrowly won rather than lost in Michigan and Ohio. If all--or even some combination--of those things had occurred, the delegate math and the voters' perception of the race would look quite different.

Santorum Wins Louisiana Primary; Gingrich Fading

Rick Santorum won the Louisiana Primary by more than 20 points on Saturday. Mitt Romney came in second, and Newt Gingrich was way behind with only 16% of the vote. As Elephant Watcher predicted after Santorum won in Alabama and Mississippi, Gingrich's support has evaporated--even in the Deep South, his strongest region. Louisiana was the final contest to be held in the Deep South. Gingrich will post even lower numbers in the remaining Southern states, and will poll near zero outside of the South. Though he has not dropped out of the race officially, Gingrich has become a non-factor, because he's no longer taking many of Santorum's Anti-Romney votes away.

Louisiana Primary (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 49%
Romney -- 27%
Gingrich -- 16%
Paul -- 6%

Unfortunately for Santorum, Gingrich was already a non-factor in the Midwest by the time Romney clobbered them both in Illinois. The only poll done so far in Wisconsin shows Romney well ahead of Santorum; Gingrich's numbers are already rock-bottom there. Previous contests in the West and Northeast indicate that Gingrich didn't have much support there to begin with, so Santorum has little to gain.

Santorum's win in Louisiana was expected, and will have no impact on the race as a whole. Fans of Santorum may be frustrated by the fact that when Romney does as well as expected, Romney gets closer to the nomination, but when Santorum does as well as expected, it doesn't help. Why the disparity, and why do expectations matter? The answer is that if everything goes as expected, Romney will win the nomination.

All of the projections of the race's likely trajectory--resulting in a Romney nomination--account for Santorum's wins in Louisiana and other Southern states. It's only if Santorum can pull off some truly unexpected upset wins in the Northeast and West that he can win the nomination or stop Romney from getting a majority of the delegates. Santorum's most realistic hope was that defeating Gingrich and uniting the Anti-Romney vote would be a game-changer. So far, it hasn't been. Starting with Michigan, every decisive race has gone in Romney's favor (Michigan, Ohio, Illinois).

Santorum Near Zero on Intrade

Mitt Romney's odds of winning the Republican presidential nomination are at an all-time high according to the Intrade market. Investors on Intrade currently give Romney a 93.1% chance of winning the nomination. Rick Santorum has dropped almost to zero: His stock is trading at 2.5%. But that's actually better than Romney's other competitors are faring. Ron Paul is at 1.4%, and Newt Gingrich is in last place at 0.3%. Gingrich's stock collapsed after his failures to win in the Deep South contests of Alabama and Mississippi earlier this month. It's the first time in a long time that he's doing worse than Paul on the Intrade market.

Jeb Bush, who is not running for president and recently endorsed Romney, is at 0.4%, slightly above Gingrich. Chris Christie, Sarah Palin, and Mike Huckabee are also trading at about that level. Jeb Bush had been acting as a stand-in of sorts on the odds of a contested convention occurring; before Bush announced he was endorsing Romney, he was actually trading at about 2.0%, almost even with Santorum.

Intrade no longer believes there's a significant chance of a contested convention (the scenario in which no candidate wins a majority of the delegates during the primary season). The market for a contested convention occurring rates the probability at 8.7%. It reached a high point of near 30% in mid-February, when Santorum was enjoying his surge. According to the market, the odds of a contested convention dropped rapidly in the days following Santorum's wins in the South; that was when the media began paying more attention to the delegate math.

Although the only polling for the Wisconsin Primary, taken back in February, had Santorum with a sizable lead, Intrade gives Romney a 64% chance of winning Wisconsin. This is reminiscent of the days before the Ohio Primary, when Intrade correctly anticipated Romney's rise and victory in the state (though the market went haywire on the night of the contest, when the vote count was extremely close). In the various Northeastern primaries taking place in April, Intrade gives Romney a lock of over 90% in each contest.

Only in Santorum's home state of Pennsylvania is the Intrade market bullish on the man's chances. Santorum is given a 66% chance of winning--not very high, considering. Intrade also foresees an early end to the primary season: The market gives Romney a 65% chance of winning Texas!

Mitt Romney Takes Illinois

Mitt Romney scored another victory over Rick Santorum in the Midwest on Tuesday, winning the Illinois Primary by a wide margin. With 82% reporting, Romney won 47% of the vote to Santorum's 35%. Newt Gingrich only took 8% of the vote--a significant erosion of the support he was polling, which wasn't that high to begin with. As expected, Newt Gingrich's recent losses in the Deep South have marginalized him further. That's what Santorum was hoping for, but it wasn't enough. If the margin holds up as more precincts report, Romney won Illinois by double-digits, an impressive win in Santorum's home region. In recent days, the polling showed Romney ahead, so Santorum was not expected to win. However, that doesn't change the fact that Illinois was a state Santorum needed to win. This was a devastating loss for the Santorum campaign.

Illinois Primary (82% reporting)
Romney -- 47%
Santorum -- 35%
Paul -- 9%
Gingrich -- 8%

The size of Romney's win in Illinois suggests that he will threaten Santorum in the Midwest again, in Wisconsin, which will vote on April 3rd. Wisconsin is one of the few states Santorum has a chance to win in April, a month whose schedule heavily favors Romney. Santorum has held a big lead over Romney in Wisconsin polls, but there hasn't been any polling there since February. Given the way the tide has turned in the overall Republican presidential primary, Santorum shouldn't count on much of a lead in Wisconsin. It's a pro-Santorum state in a pro-Santorum region, but as Michigan, Ohio, and Illinois demonstrated, that doesn't count for much anymore.

Illinois Primary Tomorrow

The Illinois Primary will be held on Tuesday. As we have mentioned before, Illinois is a crucial state in the battle between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum. Romney has been campaigning in "targets of opportunity" in the Midwest, such as Michigan and Ohio. Santorum is in the position of defending his home turf; he needs to sweep both the South and Midwest if he is to defeat Romney. Previously, Romney won by narrow margins in Michigan and Ohio. While in Michigan he had the benefit of personal ties to the state, he was at a disadvantage in Ohio--and beat Santorum anyway. Illinois, in its natural state, is considered somewhere between the two: Not as pro-Santorum as Ohio, but not as level a playing field as Michigan. Since Michigan, however, the tide has shifted against Santorum, making things easier for Romney. Despite being in the Midwest, Romney is favored to win Illinois, based on the polls:

Illinois Primary
03/18 PPP (D) -- Romney 45, Santorum 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 10
03/18 ARG -- Romney 44, Santorum 30, Gingrich 13, Paul 8
03/15 Rasmussen -- Romney 41, Santorum 32, Gingrich 14, Paul 7
03/14 WeAskAmerica -- Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 8
03/14 Fox Chicago -- Romney 37, Santorum 31, Gingrich 14, Paul 8

Judging by the polls, Romney already had the edge several days ago and is also getting late momentum on top of that. Understanding the importance of Illinois, Romney has done extra campaigning there--while Santorum wasted time in Puerto Rico. However, with Newt Gingrich polling at about 14%, there's still room for his numbers to shift toward Santorum. As in the past, Santorum may do a bit better than expected due to this strategic shift of the Anti-Romney vote. In this case, Romney's margin in the polling suggests he can safely assume a win in Illinois, regardless of that shift.

How can Santorum justify the loss of another state in the Midwest? He would likely point to the fact that Illinois is a left-leaning state that votes Democratic in presidential elections. It's true, but it shouldn't be too much comfort for Santorum going forward: The Midwestern states voting in April--both "must-win" states for Santorum--are Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, both of which have also been voting Democratic in recent presidential elections. Pennsylvania is Santorum's home state, so he shouldn't lose there, but losing Wisconsin would be very damaging.

Mitt Romney Wins Landslide in Puerto Rico

Romney

Mitt Romney sailed to victory in Puerto Rico, the final island caucus. As with other U.S. territories, Puerto Rico has a number of delegates--despite the fact that it cannot cast electoral college votes in presidential elections. Unlike the other territories, Puerto Rico has a big enough population to give it as many delegates as a medium-sized state. The delegates (or the possibility of a quasi-vacation) drew Rick Santorum to campaign in person in Puerto Rico, despite long odds against winning there. Romney's establishment support made him the early favorite, and Santorum's campaigning did nothing to put a dent in Romney's support. Though only about a third of the vote has been reported, Romney appears to have obliterated Santorum:

Puerto Rico Caucus (38% reporting)
Romney -- 88%
Santorum -- 8%
Gingrich -- 2%
Paul -- 1%

Santorum may have been attempting to keep Romney below the winner-take-all threshold of 50%. From the reported numbers, Santorum had no luck. Puerto Rico's result highlights one of Santorum's biggest problems over the last several weeks: While Romney has broken into the Midwest at various times, and has even taken advantage of the Santorum-Gingrich split to narrow the margins in the South occasionally, Santorum has been unable to return the favor. Instead, Santorum has been losing on Romney's turf by oversized margins that have a real impact on the delegate count.

Santorum would have been advised to spend his time in Illinois instead. Its primary will be held this Tuesday, and is an important contest because it represents another opportunity for Romney to pick off a Midwestern state. Aside from Louisiana, Illinois will also be the last contest to be held prior to the pro-Romney calendar of winner-take-all states in April.

Mitt Romney's Plan

Previously, we examined which portions of the primary calendar are biased toward which candidates, based on which regions of the country are over-represented or under-represented. The month of March, post-Super Tuesday, had a mixed-bag schedule, since one-third were pro-Romney states, one-third were Midwestern states, and one-third of the contests were in the Deep South. Rick Santorum cleared a major hurdle by winning in Alabama and Mississippi--or to be more accurate, by preventing Newt Gingrich from winning there. Santorum is likely to take Louisiana as well, knocking Gingrich out of the race (either officially or effectively).

In spite of this, Mitt Romney has extended his delegate lead since Super Tuesday by leveraging his ability to win big on his home turf and compete everywhere else. Romney's path to a delegate majority is clear, while Santorum's campaign struggles to put forward a convincing case that they can do more than force a contested convention. What is Romney's plan to knock Santorum out of the race and put an end to the Republican primary?

As before, Romney expects to win the West and Northeast, while targeting certain Midwestern states to pick off. So far, his strategy has succeeded, producing narrow wins in Michigan and Ohio. The next state he hopes to win in Santorum's region is Illinois, voting on March 20th. Illinois is likely to be more favorable to Romney than Ohio, thanks to the Chicago area. But Illinois is still the kind of state Santorum absolutely must win in order to put together a delegate majority.

In April, the winner-take-all section of the primary begins. Not every state is winner-take-all in the traditional sense (i.e. all delegates are awarded to the winner of the state's popular vote). Each state has different variations, such as winner-take-all by district, or partially by popular vote, etc. The important thing is that it's easier for the winner of each state to take a disproportionately large number of delegates from April onward.

April's calendar is heavily tilted in favor of Romney, with six Northeastern contests, two Midwestern ones, and none in the South. On April 3rd, the first group votes: Maryland, D.C., and Wisconsin. Santorum is not on the ballot in D.C., and as a Northeastern state, Maryland favors Romney. Like other Midwestern states, Wisconsin favors Santorum. But unlike, say, Kansas, it's plausible for Romney to eke out a win Wisconsin. If Romney wins there, it will be devastating to Santorum; if Romney loses there, it doesn't matter much.

On April 24th, voting takes place in Connecticut, Delaware, New York, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. Romney is favored in all of these states but Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania is pro-Santorum to be sure: It's not only a Midwestern state, it's his home state. Even so, if Santorum is reeling from other losses and Romney runs a good campaign there, it could possibly be competitive. A Romney win in Pennsylvania would knock Santorum out of the race. A Romney loss in Pennsylvania would do no harm; he's guaranteed a huge delegate haul from the other states voting that day.

By the end of April, Romney's delegate advantage will be massive. In the wake of Super Tuesday, Romney's campaign calculated--and it became the conventional wisdom--that Romney had taken 55% of the delegates up to that point, and needed to win about 48% of the remainder. By contrast, Santorum needed about 67% of the remainder to get a majority. Each time Santorum fails to hit the 67% mark, that figure increases, because he has to make up the difference. After the April 24th states vote, Santorum may need to win so many of the remaining delegates that even his campaign won't be able to make the case that it could happen.

What happens then? Santorum's only option is to try forcing a contested convention by preventing Romney from getting a majority. Right now, that's Santorum's only probable hope, but by the end of April the math may force him to admit it. The problem is that most Republican voters--regardless of which candidate they prefer--understand that a contested convention would have a disastrous effect on the winning candidate's chances in a general election. If Santorum is too far behind, his odds of getting the nomination (at the convention) will appear so small that a contested convention is merely an act of self-destruction for the Republican Party.

In such a case, some voters who lean Santorum (or Gingrich, if he retains a constituency) could flip to Romney. No longer seeing a Santorum victory as a possibility, they will vote Romney because that's what is necessary to defeat Barack Obama.

The May schedule is very favorable to Santorum, with two Midwestern states, five Southern states, and only Oregon starting from a pro-Romney position. Assuming Santorum hasn't already been knocked out in Pennsylvania, the first sign of Santorum's collapse would appear on May 8th, when Indiana, North Carolina, and West Virginia vote. All three states are pro-Santorum. If Santorum sweeps them, he could experience a "dead cat bounce" during May. The calendar would be favorable enough to give him a number of wins. Since the news media and pundits tend to overreact to short-term trends, they will proclaim it as a sign of grave weakness on Romney's part--until the June states put Romney over the top. But if Santorum has been weakened sufficiently, Indiana or North Carolina--even both--could vote for Romney, and the race will effectively be over.

Romney Wins Hawaii and Samoa

In the late night hours after Rick Santorum wrapped up the two Southern states voting on Tuesday, the Hawaii Caucus and the American Samoa Caucus reported that Mitt Romney won there. The two caucuses are the latest in Romney's series of island wins. That bodes well for his chances in Puerto Rico, voting later this month. In review, Santorum was able to earn wins in the South which, while narrow in margin, will have a greater strategic importance because they will knock Newt Gingrich out of the race. Meanwhile, Romney continued racking up the delegates with his big-margin wins in Hawaii and American Samoa, along with his ability to take nearly a third of the vote in the Southern states.

The following are the Hawaii results; American Samoa reported Romney will win all of its delegates.

Hawaii Caucus (100% reporting)
Romney -- 45%
Santorum -- 25%
Paul -- 18%
Gingrich -- 11%

It's been reported that despite the larger populations of Alabama and Mississippi, Romney won more delegates than Santorum did on Tuesday. This is significant, because the post-Super Tuesday portion of March is the most Santorum-friendly section of the primary calendar, aside from May. Santorum desperately needs to get big delegate wins in order to offset his preexisting deficit, to say nothing of offsetting the pro-Romney calendar in April and June.

Instead, Romney has only increased his delegate lead, making Santorum's job all the more difficult. That's why Gingrich's presence in the race up to this point undermines Santorum's chances going forward. Even if Gingrich were to quit tomorrow, the damage has been done.