Santorum Rises on Intrade; Romney Still Dominates

When we last examined the Intrade market for the Republican nomination, Mitt Romney was poised to win Florida. He was near 90% on Intrade, and his nearest rival was in the low single-digits. Since then, Romney won Florida and Nevada by huge margins--but was derailed by Rick Santorum's three-state win on February 7th.

Romney still dominates the Intrade market, standing at 73.5%, nearly triple the rest of his competitors combined. But Santorum has risen to 16%. Prior to his win last Tuesday, Santorum was trading at less than 2%. Meanwhile, Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul are trading at 3% and 2.3%, respectively. Once it became clear Gingrich was going to lose Florida, he cratered. He continues to be mired in the low single-digits. The question is, how high will Santorum go?

The Intrade markets on individual states reveal a fog of confusion about the future of the race. Intrade's investors are unsure of whether Santorum will be able to pull out more wins in the Midwest--wins he'll absolutely need if Romney is to be stopped.

Of the three contests taking place prior to Super Tuesday (Arizona, Michigan, and Washington), Intrade is confident Romney will win Arizona (80%) and Washington (65%). But in the all-important state of Michigan, the market is split: Santorum is at 55% and Romney is at 45%. This market has been going back and forth between the two competitors. The same is true of Super Tuesday's biggest state, Ohio, where Romney is trading at 50% and Santorum at 55% (these are sell orders, which is why they sometimes add to over 100%).

Lack of regular polling of Michigan and Ohio explains why Intrade is so cautious about taking a stand on those important states. Michigan is one of Romney's "home states," and Ohio is an expensive place to campaign, but Intrade gives Romney no edge. Tuesday's contests in Minnesota and Missouri showed Santorum strong and Romney weak in the Midwest. Intrade has adopted a wait-and-see approach.

Mitt Romney Wins Maine Caucus

Mitt Romney won the Maine Caucus on Saturday, narrowly edging out Ron Paul. While Romney beat Paul by 3 points among the reporting precincts, so few people vote in the Maine Caucus that it amounted to less than 200 votes. Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich placed far behind. The Republican Party of Maine officially declared Romney the winner, even though some precincts have yet to report; some of these precincts may be participating in the caucus outside of the February 4-11th timeframe. Even if, as in Iowa, a later tally gave the victory to Romney's opponent, Romney is the beneficiary of the result here. Since there are no delegates to be won in the non-binding caucus, all of the benefit comes from positive media.

Maine Caucus (84% reporting)
Romney -- 39%
Paul -- 36%
Santorum -- 18%
Gingrich -- 6%

What will Maine's impact be, and what do the results reveal? Overall, little. There are some things to be gleaned, but they point in opposing directions, for a small net impact. Romney won, blunting the "Romney's campaign is falling" narrative. That is balanced by the fact that he won by a small amount. But that, in turn, is balanced by the fact that his nearest competitor was Paul, rather than Santorum, whom he trounced by 20 points. That's good news for Romney, especially since it reinforces the notion that Romney holds an advantage over Santorum in the Northeast. On the other hand, Santorum still has time to rise from his surge; however, Santorum has not been vetted yet. Santorum also takes away good news, since he beat Gingrich, the competing Anti-Romney, by a substantial margin. This, too, is balanced somewhat by the fact that it took place in a Northeastern state where Gingrich was not expected to do well.

As one can tell from the description in the preceding paragraph, the circumstances make for a muddled analysis rather than providing one clear lesson. If Santorum had won, or if Gingrich had beaten Santorum, things would have been interesting.

The first real battle between Santorum and Romney will take place in Michigan, which holds its primary on February 28th. One debate will take place prior to that primary, on February 22nd. Until then, the extent of Santorum's strength won't be fully clear.

Maine Caucus Finishes Tomorrow

Tomorrow, voters in Maine will finish voting in the Maine Caucus. As with the other contests this week, the Maine Caucus will be non-binding, so no delegates will be awarded. Very little attention has been paid to this contest--even less than to the states that voted on Tuesday--so there is no polling data whatsoever. The Intrade market currently gives Mitt Romney a 69% chance of winning--and gives Ron Paul a 30% chance. The only reporting on Maine has been that none of the candidates have been spending their resources on Maine, except for Paul. Paul's campaign believes he is stronger in caucus states, and lacking competition in Maine, hopes to pull out a win.

By its nature, Maine is a pro-Romney state: It is a Northeastern state and voted for Romney back in 2008. However, as we saw in Minnesota and Colorado earlier this week, that doesn't mean it's a lock for Romney. Since the Romney campaign is in "delegate mode" and concerned only with racking up delegates, it makes sense that they would skip the state. But because Maine will be the last state to vote prior to the important contests on February 28th (in Arizona and Michigan), it may contribute to or blunt certain media narratives.

The media is uncertain whether Rick Santorum's sweep of three states on Tuesday was a fluke, or whether Romney is going down in flames. It's also unclear whether Newt Gingrich's campaign is completely collapsing, with all of its support going over to Santorum. Maine may provide some hints, even though no one beside Paul is attempting to compete there.

If Romney loses the state, there will be some rumblings about his weakness. If he wins, it will be treated as a signal of his strength in the Northeast. If Paul wins the state, Maine may be written off as meaningless. Attention will also be paid to Santorum's and Gingrich's numbers. If Santorum does poorly, the media will begin grasping onto the idea that the regions are split among candidates (Romney in the Northeast/West, Gingrich in the South, Santorum in the Midwest). If Santorum does well, particularly if he does much better than Gingrich, it will be viewed as a sign of his emerging status as chief Anti-Romney.

It's not unrealistic to think Santorum could do better than expected. When other candidates surged during this primary season, they surged across the country at once. Santorum has not been vetted yet, and certainly hasn't been attacked in negative campaigning in Maine, so voters will assume for now that he has no real weaknesses.

Paths to the Republican Nomination

After performing miserably in four consecutive contests (NH, SC, FL, and NV), Rick Santorum made an incredible comeback on Tuesday, winning three states at once. Prior to this, Newt Gingrich seemed to be the only candidate capable of scoring a big victory against Mitt Romney. With Santorum back in the race, it's worth taking a look at the different paths the candidates could take toward winning the nomination.

Ron Paul. Though it's disappointing news to his enthusiastic fanbase, Ron Paul has no path to the nomination and never will. Paul wins respect for his consistency, but few can imagine him as a serious contender for the presidency. He is far more frequently described as a "kook" or "nut" than as "presidential." Paul will be lucky to win a state at all, much less the nomination. Even if a catastrophe occurred, resulting in the death of the three other contenders, the Republican establishment would see to it that someone else is nominated at the convention.

Newt Gingrich. Gingrich's path to the nomination, if unlikely, had been apparent: He could secure his role as the chief Anti-Romney, win the Southern states, and hope that he could win enough neutral battleground states to offset Romney's advantage in the Northeast, West, and "blue" states. Losing Florida by 14 points was a serious setback for Gingrich. Seeing Santorum win three states last Tuesday was ruinous. Gingrich no longer has a clear path to the nomination.

It is possible that Gingrich could get ahead of Santorum again. It would require Gingrich to do very well in the next few debates (and probably require Santorum to do badly at them). Gingrich would also need to hope Romney's attack machine cuts Santorum down to size. But even if Gingrich eventually manages to wrest the Anti-Romney vote back from Santorum, it will be too late. Gingrich needs every delegate he can get, and he can't afford to spend the next few weeks splitting the Anti-Romney vote while fighting his way back on top.

Mitt Romney. Though alarming, Romney's losses in CO, MN, and MO on Tuesday do not change his basic equation. Romney's campaign is the only one (besides Paul's) that managed to get on the ballot with a full slate of delegates in every state. For the time being, he is the only candidate with the organization and money to compete for delegates everywhere in the country. The "winner-take-all" phase of the primary is heavily stacked in his favor, with many states in the Northeast and West and few in the South. As long as Romney continues to perform well in his best regions, gobble up as many delegates as he can in the South, and use his money advantage to strongly compete in the battleground states, he is the favorite to win.

Assuming Romney is able to "vet" Santorum with the kind of negative ads that destroyed Gingrich in Iowa and Florida, Santorum's resurgence will be to Romney's benefit. Obviously Romney would prefer to compete against Gingrich than Santorum. But if both of his competitors are robust without being too strong, they'll split the Anti-Romney vote. Moreover, at some point Santorum and Gingrich will need to bow to the reality that they are competing with each other for the same voters. It's tempting for Anti-Romney voters to wish for a truce between Gingrich and Santorum, but it simply makes too much sense for Gingrich and Santorum to attack each other instead. There's a reason why Gingrich was demanding that Santorum drop out of the race, and it wasn't ideological disagreement.

Rick Santorum. Despite his disadvantages, Santorum now has a clear path to the nomination. It's not an easy one, and those disadvantages (lack of money/organization, failure to fully qualify on ballots in several states, having yet to be vetted, etc.) are more likely to sink him than not. Still, he has a path. Santorum is in a race against time. He must do well enough against Gingrich in the next several contests to push him out of the way and fully capture the Anti-Romney vote before Super Tuesday. Santorum can win if he is able to dominate the South and the Midwest, while performing decently in Romney's strongholds of the Northeast and West.

The challenge for Santorum is that he must squeeze Gingrich out of the race and take all the Southern delegates for himself. The South is the most anti-Romney region, as well as being the most pro-Gingrich. In a two-man race, this would not matter: Without Gingrich in the running, Gingrich voters would happily go over to Santorum instead of Romney. In a three-man race, it's different. Santorum is faced with the task of getting pro-Gingrich voters in the South to abandon Gingrich and join him. To do that, he needs to beat Gingrich enough to make Gingrich's candidacy look like it's over, and in a hurry.

Santorum Sweeps CO, MN, and MO

Rick Santorum won a clean sweep of the three states holding contests on Tuesday, winning Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. Although no delegates were awarded (CO and MN were non-binding caucuses, and MO's actual contest is in March), it's almost beside the point: Santorum needed something dramatic to get him ahead of Newt Gingrich and back into the race, and he got it. Reporting suggests that Gingrich had skipped these states to focus on the Southern contests later down the road, and that Mitt Romney--with campaign in full "delegate mode"--largely ignored these contests to focus on Arizona and Michigan, which will be held at the end of the month. Meanwhile, Santorum had skipped Florida and Nevada to focus on Tuesday's states. But the results reveal more than just the campaigns' different strategies:

Colorado Caucus (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 40%
Romney -- 35%
Gingrich -- 13%
Paul -- 12%

Minnesota Caucus (95% reporting)
Santorum -- 45%
Paul -- 27%
Romney -- 17%
Gingrich -- 11%

Missouri Primary (100% reporting)
Santorum -- 55%
Romney -- 25%
Paul -- 12%
Gingrich -- [not on ballot]

The strength of Santorum's wins, particularly in Minnesota and Missouri, reveal three things. First, it shows weakness on Romney's part. While he may have skipped these contests, he ought to have done better considering the momentum he built up from his early wins and Santorum's early losses. Romney also has reason to be concerned about his relative strength compared to Santorum in the Midwest (IA, MN, MO). Romney's failure in Minnesota makes it especially clear, considering he won that state in 2008 after having lost big in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida.

The second thing the results reveal is the weakness of Gingrich as chief Anti-Romney. If Tuesday was a bad night for Romney, it was fatal for Gingrich. The voters in these states seem to have taken Santorum's central campaign argument to heart: Gingrich won't beat Romney, so another alternative is needed. Even without having won delegates, the perception of the race will shift, causing Gingrich supporters to jump on the Santorum bandwagon. Santorum's numbers will surge.

The third item revealed in Tuesday's results is that Santorum is unvetted. He has not been subject to any media scrutiny or negative ads by the other candidates. The race has returned to its old pattern, with yet another Anti-Romney surging. Back in December, we explored the question of why candidates kept surging and crashing. The answer is that voters assume each new candidate is both highly conservative and highly electable. But because no candidate in the field possesses both those qualities, their numbers crash once the candidate's weaknesses are revealed. Santorum's late surge in Iowa was blunted, and he was never considered a threat. He is the last candidate to have a surge--and crash.

What happens next? After the non-binding Maine Caucus ends this Saturday, there will be a debate on February 22nd and the next two primaries will be in Arizona and Michigan on February 28th. In the meantime, Romney's campaign, which must feel like it is playing whack-a-mole, will begin attacking Santorum and heavily campaigning in AZ and MI.

If Santorum emerges from his vetting unscathed and does well in AZ/MI, his odds of winning the nomination will increase substantially. Otherwise, he will crash and the campaign will shift back into Romney's favor. In such a case, Santorum's surge will have actually helped Romney, because the Anti-Romney vote will become even more split than before.

Contests in CO, MN, and MO Tomorrow

Voters in three more states will vote tomorrow, in Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri. (The Missouri contest is a strange one--it won't count, and the real Missouri Caucus will be held in March. This is just another example of how each state running its own contest by its own rules allows for a lot of quirks.) Mitt Romney will experience the burden of a frontrunner in these contests. If he wins them, they will receive relatively little coverage: The media have decided that the primaries in Arizona and Michigan being held at the end of the month are more worthy of attention. But if Romney loses these states, then they will be considered noteworthy, particularly if Rick Santorum beats him. That's because the current narrative is that Romney is the inevitable nominee and Santorum is a lower-tier candidate. Any result that challenges that narrative will cause the dynamic to shift.

We have seen before the way in which the media overreacts to every development in the race. When Newt Gingrich won South Carolina, the same media that had been talking a week earlier about a Romney steamroller began saying that Romney had run a terrible campaign. Upon Gingrich taking South Carolina, Elephant Watcher predicted that if Romney won Florida, the media would turn against Gingrich just as quickly, declaring Gingrich can only win Southern states. The media have indeed turned against Gingrich and renewed the "Romney is inevitable" narrative.

In the same way, if Romney does poorly in tomorrow's contests, they can just as easily begin trumpeting the notion that Romney is a lousy candidate. More importantly, if Santorum beats Gingrich, Santorum can get back into the race. Otherwise, the three contests tomorrow are considered minor events. If Nevada got little polling, tomorrow's states have gotten virtually nothing. PPP (D) has conducted a poll in Colorado and Minnesota. There is no polling data on Missouri, where Gingrich will evidently not be on the ballot.

Colorado Caucus
02/04 PPP (D) -- Romney 40, Santorum 26, Gingrich 18, Paul 12

Minnesota Caucus
02/04 PPP (D) -- Santorum 29, Romney 27, Gingrich 22, Paul 19

Both Colorado and Minnesota were won by Romney in 2008, even after Romney had lost in Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Florida. In theory, Romney ought to do very well in both states this time around. The Colorado poll suggests an easy repeat victory, but Minnesota will be more difficult.

However, without more polling data it's impossible to be sure. Santorum leads in the only poll. Interestingly, the Intrade market on Minnesota doesn't believe the poll: It has Romney with a 70% chance to win. PPP is a Democratic polling firm, and its track record is mixed. PPP did well in its polling for South Carolina, but did badly in Iowa and Florida, and pretty badly on the lower-tier candidates in Nevada. It's also been said that caucuses are more difficult to poll than primaries.

Nevertheless, the two polls show Santorum ahead of Gingrich in both Colorado and Minnesota. Intrade investors do believe that. If Gingrich has indeed been excluded from the Missouri ballot tomorrow, Santorum will beat him there, as well. Even without a win, Santorum will get a big boost simply by vaulting ahead of Gingrich.

Mitt Romney Wins Nevada Caucus

Just a few days after his crucial victory in Florida, Mitt Romney won another landslide, in the Nevada Caucus. Although Romney won an overwhelming victory, less attention will be paid to it, largely due to Nevada's unusually high Mormon population. In our analysis of why early states have such influence, we noted that less weight is given to a victory if the winner has a unique advantage in the state. If the Mormon vote weren't a factor, Romney would be given much more credit for his big win in Nevada. Even so, one should remember that Nevada is not the only state where the Mormon vote could play a role. Western states like Utah, Idaho, Colorado, Arizona, New Mexico, and Wyoming will also be affected to some degree. This is especially important because some of those states might otherwise be receptive to a "Tea Party" candidate.

Nevada Caucus (70% reporting)
Romney -- 48%
Gingrich -- 23%
Paul -- 19%
Santorum -- 11%

Though votes are still coming in, it appears Romney replicated his 2008 performance, when he won half the vote. Given the fact that he won so big last time around, it would be difficult for him to improve by too much; winning half the vote in a four-way race is pretty close to the maximum. Once again, Romney won more than Gingrich and Santorum combined.

Nevada was Ron Paul's best state in 2008 as well; he had placed second. If anyone believed Paul had a chance of taking a state, Nevada would be it. As Paul is considered by most to be a fringe candidate, he got nowhere.

Importantly, Rick Santorum failed to beat Newt Gingrich or even come close. As long as he continues putting in numbers like this, Santorum will never be able to break out of the second (or third) tier of candidates. February will be Santorum's last opportunity to turn things around. If Santorum beats Gingrich or comes close in one of the contests, he would get a lot of favorable publicity and the dynamic of the race will shift. It's likely that many of the Gingrich supporters are willing--perhaps even eager--to try their luck with Santorum as the chief Anti-Romney. One good performance would be enough to shift the narrative. Santorum looks far behind Gingrich today, but Gingrich has suffered catastrophic collapses before.

For some time now, Elephant Watcher has viewed Santorum as a more natural Anti-Romney than Gingrich, because he can more convincingly make the argument that he is more conservative--and he may be perceived as more electable. Santorum didn't get a ticket into the race in Nevada, but there are still a few February contests where he has an opening.

Nevada Caucus Tomorrow

On Saturday, the last of the early states will cast its votes: Nevada. Under the national Republican Party rules, Nevada is a member of the exclusive club--along with Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina--that gets to vote before all the rest. (Florida, given its importance in a general election, was able to crash the party, though it took a penalty for doing so.)

Traditionally, Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina are the "big three" early states. Nevada simply doesn't have as much prestige, and it gets less attention. The Mormon vote's role in both 2008 and 2012 also tended to result in the state being downplayed, as it gave Mitt Romney an unusual advantage. About a quarter of the Republican vote in the state is Mormon, and they nearly all voted for Romney in 2008. The Mormon vote played a similar role to the black vote in the Democrats' South Carolina Primary of 2008 (also about a quarter) which guaranteed Barack Obama's win.

Nevada's second-class status among the early states was reflected in the scant amount of polling that was done there. There have only been two recent polls conducted in Nevada:

Nevada Caucus
02/02 PPP (D) -- Romney 50, Gingrich 25, Santorum 15, Paul 8
01/31 Vegas R-Journal -- Romney 45, Gingrich 25, Santorum 11, Paul 9

Not surprisingly, Romney enjoys a colossal lead. Even in the poll taken before Romney's win in Florida, Romney holds a 20-point lead over Newt Gingrich. Since Romney is guaranteed to win Nevada, more attention will be paid to his margin of victory. One benchmark to consider is that Romney got 51% of the vote in 2008--and that was after losing in both Iowa and New Hampshire. However, it's possible that Romney's campaign expended more resources there in 2008, operating under the false impression that they would get full credit for winning one of the early states.

The other thing to watch for is how well Gingrich does compared to Rick Santorum. Santorum's argument for staying in the race is that Gingrich was given a chance to play the chief Anti-Romney and failed spectacularly in Florida. Santorum believes that if he is given a chance to take on Romney, he'll fare better. There are some polls that suggest this, but shifting from one Anti-Romney to another--without even the benefit of a debate--is like turning around a battleship. Santorum needs to beat Gingrich or get close in some of the February contests.

Meanwhile, Romney is hoping to build the impression that he is unstoppable. Having won Florida by a sizable margin, he hopes to win Nevada by a landslide and generate a bounce big enough to win the four states voting next week: Minnesota, Colorado, Missouri, and Maine. All of those contests will take place prior to the one debate scheduled in February.

2012 Republican Primary in Review: January 2012

Each month, Elephant Watcher recaps the activity that occurred in the Republican primary during the previous month. Follow these links to read earlier recaps: May, June, July, August, September, October, November, December.

January 2012 was the month of the early primary states. By tying for first in Iowa, easily winning New Hampshire, and decisively defeating his remaining opponents in Florida, Mitt Romney secured his position as the prohibitive favorite to win the nomination.

As January began, the situation in Iowa was unclear. Romney, Ron Paul, and Rick Santorum all had reasons to be optimistic. Newt Gingrich, who had been leading in Iowa only a few weeks earlier, had been devastated by his rivals' negative ads. With no opportunities to debate, Gingrich could not respond. At last, Santorum was given the chance to be the Evangelical Anti-Romney in Iowa. His surge began at the last possible moment; it was spotted by Rick Perry and Paul, who quickly responded with the first attacks ever made against Santorum.

It was a race against time for Santorum, and he lost. Romney managed to squeak out a win in Iowa on January 3rd, beating Santorum by 8 votes. Santorum's spike in the polls was impressive, but so was Romney's ability to make a last-minute play for the state--one he had largely written off since his defeat there in 2008. A recount later found that Santorum had actually won the state by a handful of votes, but he was unable to get the kind of big win that he needed to propel him above Gingrich elsewhere in the country. Santorum was an Iowa-only candidate. Michele Bachmann fared even worse, and she quit the race.

Romney was expected to win the New Hampshire Primary, where he had dominated the polls all year. On January 7th, the candidates finally returned to the debate stage, but they didn't take the opportunity to attack Romney. He easily won the debate; on January 10th he won New Hampshire just as easily. Santorum and Gingrich tied each other for a distant fourth.

Romney's wins in Iowa and New Hampshire gave him a huge bounce in the polls--even in South Carolina, by far the most anti-Romney of the early states. The media began to speculate that Romney might simply win every contest. Seeing no path forward, Jon Huntsman dropped out of the race.

Gingrich and Perry shifted entirely to the offensive against Romney. Their main line of attack was to condemn Romney's success at Bain Capital, a private equity firm. Although they seemed to be scoring points at first, the attacks backfired: They sounded like anti-capitalist critics from the left, and were forced to retreat.

On January 16th, the first of two pre-South Carolina debates took place. Gingrich was given a prime opportunity to attack the liberal media after one liberal moderator all but accused him of being a racist. In attacking the media, Gingrich looked like a genuine Tea Party conservative--enabling voters to overlook his impure record. But that wasn't all: Gingrich was well ahead of Santorum in the polls, and Perry dropped out of the race to endorse Gingrich. It was clear that if anyone would be the alternative to Romney, Gingrich was it. The Anti-Romney vote coalesced, and Gingrich began to surge in the polls.

On January 19th, Gingrich was able to launch a broadside against the liberal media at another debate, when he was asked about his ex-wife's accusations. As with Herman Cain's sex scandal a few months earlier, it took some time before the issue would sink in and drive women voters away from Gingrich. Meanwhile, Romney--who had been able to defeat the Bain criticism--was badly damaged because he refused to release his tax returns. When questioned about it during the debates, he was evasive and defensive. South Carolina's voters began to question Romney's electability: Was he hiding something that would sink him in the general election?

Gingrich won a landslide victory in South Carolina on January 21st. In response, the media narrative shifted dramatically. Romney was no longer the inevitable Republican nominee. Gingrich had the momentum, it seemed. After being left for dead a second time in the campaign, Gingrich had made a comeback. He retook the lead in the Florida polls, a state Romney badly needed to win.

But the situation was not nearly as dire for Romney as it appeared. Despite having been at a severe disadvantage in South Carolina, Romney had nearly doubled his share of the vote there, compared to his run in 2008. And the damage to his electability argument was very superficial: All he had to do was release his tax returns, which he did the following week. As it turned out, there were no skeletons in his closet. Romney had merely been stubborn in failing to release them earlier.

But the Romney campaign knew they had to turn things around. They pulled out all the stops, pouring millions of dollars into negative ads against Gingrich in Florida. As in Iowa, the attacks had a big impact. But Gingrich's real vulnerability lay in the very thing he claimed to be his greatest strength--his debating ability. As Elephant Watcher predicted, Gingrich was not able to debate very well when actually challenged by his opponents. On January 23rd, Gingrich's performance was lackluster. On January 26th, it was disastrous. Romney won the debate by repeatedly hammering Gingrich, who was unable to respond.

In the days following the debates, Romney soared in the Florida polls. Voters' concerns about Romney's electability and toughness were dispelled. By contrast, Gingrich's campaign was left in ruins. Gingrich began to lash out, complaining about the negative ads while taking an increasingly negative tone in interviews. For weeks, Gingrich had claimed that he was the most electable candidate because he was the best man to face Barack Obama in a debate. But after losing two debates, Gingrich found himself making all kinds of excuses for why he was unable to debate properly. All the while, Florida was drenched in attack ads.

On January 31st, Floridians cast their votes in the primary. Romney won an overwhelming victory. Gingrich vowed to fight on, but the situation seemed hopeless. Florida had been very receptive to Gingrich in the past, and was his best hope for building momentum going into a longer race. Romney, having proven he could destroy Gingrich on neutral ground, looked to be in total control.

Mitt Romney Wins Florida Primary

Mitt Romney won a landslide victory in the Florida Primary on Tuesday. Romney won 46% of the vote; Newt Gingrich placed a distant second with 32%. Florida was a key test for the candidates, a neutral battleground that inherently favored neither Romney nor Gingrich over the other. Romney's big win in Florida is a strong indication that he will win the nomination.

Gingrich's double-digit loss will have a devastating effect on his campaign. Although his concession speech emphasized that there are "46 states to go," the race will actually become increasingly difficult. As time goes on, debates will become infrequent; the role of money, organization, and momentum will become more important. That's why Gingrich needed a big win in Florida. Even more alarming was the extent of Romney's win:

Florida Primary (98% reporting)
Romney -- 46%
Gingrich -- 32%
Santorum -- 13%
Paul -- 7%

Even supposing Rick Santorum had dropped out of the race, adding several additional points to Gingrich's total (and a few to Romney's), Romney would have beaten Gingrich in Florida by a comfortable margin. If Romney is able to repeat his Florida performance in in similar states, he will win the nomination with little difficulty.

Santorum's support eroded after Gingrich's win in South Carolina, but Santorum's debate performance on Thursday apparently stopped the bleeding. Gingrich's defeat to Romney strengthens Santorum's argument that the Anti-Romney voters have backed the wrong horse. However, Santorum placed so far behind Gingrich that it will be difficult for voters to see him as a viable candidate.

Is there any chance left for Gingrich or Santorum to win the nomination? At this point, their best hope is to absolutely destroy Romney during the remaining debates. Otherwise, only some unforeseen scandal or catastrophe can turn things around.